Effective flood risk visualisation     

Percival  Sarah Ellen  Gaterell  Mark  Hutchinson  David 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):375-396

Natural Hazards - The effective communication of flood risk offers the opportunity to ensure communities can adapt and respond appropriately to changing local conditions. At a time of diminishing...  相似文献   

Cosmological evolution and hierarchical galaxy formation     

Will Percival  Lance Miller 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,309(4):823-832

We calculate the rate at which dark matter haloes merge to form higher mass systems. Two complementary derivations using Press–Schechter theory are given, both of which result in the same equation for the formation rate. First, a derivation using the properties of the Brownian random walks within the framework of Press–Schechter theory is presented. We then use Bayes' theorem to obtain the same result from the standard Press–Schechter mass function. The rate obtained is shown to be in good agreement with results from Monte Carlo and N -body simulations. We illustrate the usefulness of this formula by calculating the expected cosmological evolution in the rate of star formation that is due to short-lived, merger-induced starbursts. The calculated evolution is well-matched to the observed evolution in ultraviolet luminosity density, in contrast to the lower rates of evolution that are derived from semi-analytic models that do not include a dominant contribution from starbursts. Hence we suggest that the bulk of the observed ultraviolet starlight at z >1 arises from merger-induced starbursts. Finally, we show that a simple merging-halo model can also account for the bulk of the observed evolution in the comoving quasar space density.  相似文献   

The chemical and physical characteristics of heavy metals in humus and till in the vicinity of the base metal smelter at Flin Flon, Manitoba, Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. J. Henderson  I. McMartin  G. E. Hall  J. B. Percival  D. A. Walker 《Environmental Geology》1998,34(1):39-58

 Trace element geochemistry of humus (<0.425 mm) and till (<0.002 mm) collected in the Flin Flon-Snow Lake area, northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, provides a regional context for assessing smelter contamination in the environment. The area includes a Cu-Zn smelter known to discharge As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Hg, Pb, and Zn. In this study, sequential extraction analyses, scanning electron microscopy and x-ray diffraction analyses were used on a suite of samples to determine: (1) the chemical and physical characteristics of heavy metals in surficial sediments related to distance from the smelter, (2) criteria for assessing the relative contribution of these metals from natural and anthropogenic sources, and (3) the potential of these metals for remobilization in the environment. Humus geochemistry reflects the anthropogenic and natural component of heavy metal concentrations. Smelter-related elements show anomalously high values adjacent to the smelter, decreasing with distance until background values are reached at 70–104 km, depending on the element. In humus, Zn is associated primarily with labile phases; Hg with non-labile phases. Adjacent to the smelter, high proportions and concentrations of Zn and Hg in non-labile phases, indicative of smelter-derived particulates, are confirmed by SEM examination. The particles occur as spheres, irregular grains, and with organics. With increasing distance from the smelter, the geochemical response to bedrock composition is more obvious than the anthropogenic input. Till geochemistry reflects the natural variation imposed by bedrock composition. At highly contaminated sites (<3 km from the smelter), increased percentages of smelter-related elements in labile phases suggests heavy metals are leached from humus to the underlying sediment. Received: 5 November 1996 · Accepted: 31 March 1997  相似文献   

The Wealden (non-marine Lower Cretaceous) of the Wessex Sub-basin,southern England     

Jonathan D. Radley  Percival Allen 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2012,123(2):319-373

The Wealden Beds (non-marine Lower Cretaceous) of the Wessex Sub-basin, southern England, are exposed principally in coastal sections on the Isle of Wight and in Dorset. Geological Conservation Review sites within these strata have been extensively documented since the earliest days of geological enquiry in Great Britain. The succession is dominated by the alluvial Wessex Formation which demonstrates a broad east–west transition from meanderplain lithofacies to coarser-grained alluvial sediments, in relative proximity to the Cornubian source massif. The meanderplain sediments on the Isle of Wight are of international importance for their plant and animal fossils, the latter including many dinosaurs and their trackways. Upper Barremian transgression resulted in the spread of muddy lakes and coastal lagoons from the Weald Sub-basin into the eastern part of the Wessex Sub-basin, around or through the Purbeck–Isle of Wight structure. The resulting richly fossiliferous mudrock-dominated strata are now represented by the Vectis Formation on the Isle of Wight and in Swanage Bay, Dorset. The Geological Conservation Review sites in the Wessex Sub-basin are documented and interpreted, with particular reference to research history, chronostratigraphy, structural context, palaeoenvironments, palaeobiology and palaeoclimatology. New directions for research are proposed, as applicable.  相似文献   

Downstream changes in antimony and arsenic speciation in sediments at a mesothermal gold deposit in British Columbia,Canada     

Suzanne Beauchemin  Y.T. John Kwong  Alexandre J. Desbarats  Ted MacKinnon  Jeanne B. Percival  Michael B. Parsons  Kumi Pandya 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

This study investigates Sb speciation in sediments along the drainage of the Upper Peter adit at the Bralorne Au mine in southern British Columbia, Canada, and compares the behavior of Sb with that of As. The Upper Peter mineralization consists of native Au in quartz-carbonate veins with 1 wt.% sulfides dominated by pyrite and arsenopyrite although stibnite, the primary Sb-bearing sulfide mineral, can be locally significant. Dissolved Sb concentrations can reach up to 349 μg L⁻¹ in the mine pool. Sediments were collected for detailed geochemical and mineralogical characterization at locations along the 350-m flow path, which includes a 100-m shallow channel within the adit, a sediment settling pond about 45 m beyond the adit portal and an open wetland another 120 m farther downstream. From the mine pool to the wetland outlet, dissolved Sb in the drainage drops from 199 μg L⁻¹ to below the detection limit due to the combined effect of dilution and removal from solution. Speciation analyses using X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy indicate that Sb(III)–S accounts for around 70% of total Sb in the sediments in the main pool at the far end of the adit. At a short distance (24 m) downstream of the main adit pool, however, Sb(III)–O and Sb(V)–O species represent ?50% of total Sb in the bulk sediments, indicating significant oxidation of the primary sulfides inside the adit. Although Sb appears largely oxidized in the bulk samples collected near the portal, Sb(III)–S species are nevertheless present in the <53-μm fraction, suggesting a higher oxidation rate for stibnite in the coarser grains, possibly due to galvanic interaction with pyrite. Secondary Sb species released from the sulfide oxidation are most likely sorbed/co-precipitated with Fe-, Mn-, and Al-oxyhydroxides along the flow channel in the adit and in the sediment settling pond, with the Fe phase being the dominant sink for Sb.  相似文献   

A theoretical analysis of the systematic errors in the red clump distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC)     

Maurizio Salaris  Susan Percival  Léo Girardi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(3):1030-1038

We present a detailed analysis of the uncertainty on the theoretical population corrections to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) red clump (RC) absolute magnitude, by employing a population synthesis algorithm to simulate theoretically the photometric and spectroscopic properties of RC stars, under various assumptions concerning the LMC star formation rate (SFR) and age–metallicity relationship (AMR). A comparison of the outcome of our simulations with observations of evolved low- to intermediate-mass stars in the LMC allows one to select the combinations of SFR and AMR that bracket the real LMC star formation history, and to estimate the systematic error on the associated RC population corrections.
The most accurate estimate of the LMC distance modulus from the RC method (adopting the OGLE-II reddening maps for the LMC) is obtained from the K -band magnitude, and provides  ( m − M )_0,LMC= 18.47 ± 0.01(random)^+0.05_−0.06(systematic)  . Distances obtained from the I band, or from the multicolour RC technique which determines at the same time reddening and distance, both agree (albeit with a slightly larger error bar) with this value.  相似文献   

Extraction of tsunami source coefficients via inversion of DART ^\circledR^{\circledR} buoy data     

Donald B. Percival  Donald W. Denbo  Marie C. Eblé  Edison Gica  Harold O. Mofjeld  Michael C. Spillane  Liujuan Tang  Vasily V. Titov 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):567-590

The ability to accurately forecast potential hazards posed to coastal communities by tsunamis generated seismically in both the near and far field requires knowledge of so-called source coefficients, from which the strength of a tsunami can be deduced. Seismic information alone can be used to set the source coefficients, but the values so derived reflect the dynamics of movement at or below the seabed and hence might not accurately describe how this motion is manifested in the overlaying water column. We describe here a method for refining source coefficient estimates based on seismic information by making use of data from Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART ^\circledR^{\circledR}) buoys (tsunameters). The method involves using these data to adjust precomputed models via an inversion algorithm so that residuals between the adjusted models and the DART ^\circledR^{\circledR} data are as small as possible in a least squares sense. The inversion algorithm is statistically based and hence has the ability to assess uncertainty in the estimated source coefficients. We describe this inversion algorithm in detail and apply it to the November 2006 Kuril Islands event as a case study.  相似文献   

Entrainment rates during ACE‐2 Lagrangian experiments calculated from aircraft measurements     

Michael J. Sollazzo  Lynn M. Russell  Derek Percival  Simon Osborne  Robert Wood  Douglas W. Johnson 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2000,52(2):335-347

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Measuring the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation scale using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey     

Will J. Percival  Shaun Cole  Daniel J. Eisenstein  Robert C. Nichol  John A. Peacock  Adrian C. Pope  Alexander S. Szalay 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,381(3):1053-1066

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Geochemistry of mine waters draining a low-sulfide, gold-quartz vein deposit, Bralorne, British Columbia     

Alexandre J. Desbarats  Michael B. Parsons  Jeanne B. Percival  Suzanne Beauchemin  Y.T. John Kwong 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(12):1990-2003

The Bralorne and Pioneer mines, now inactive, produced over 4 million ounces of Au from an orogenic lode Au deposit located on the eastern edge of the Coastal Mountains of SW British Columbia. Between 2007 and 2009, drainage from a recently developed exploration adit was investigated in order to better understand and anticipate potential environmental management issues associated with the development of this type of deposit in the future. Portal discharge rate and specific conductance were monitored continuously over a 14-month period during which 36 water samples were collected. Additional samples were collected from flooded workings within the adit. Concentrations of As and Sb at the portal range as high as 1738 and 316 μg/L, respectively, while those in the mine pool reach 3304 and 349 μg/L, respectively. Effluent chemistry is mildly alkaline (pH = 8.7) and is dominated by Na, Ca, Mg, HCO₃ and SO₄. Geochemical inverse modeling of effluent composition indicates weathering of albite (2515 kg/a), ferroan dolomite (718 kg/a), pyrite (456 kg/a), arsenopyrite (23 kg/a) and stibnite (2 kg/a). Modeled sulfide reaction coefficients, normalized by their corresponding host rock concentrations, suggest that oxidation of arsenopyrite is 25 times slower than that of pyrite whereas oxidation of stibnite is 1.5 times faster. Oxidative dissolution of arsenopyrite and stibnite releases 10.6 kg/a of As and 1.1 kg/a of Sb of which 57% and 46%, respectively, are sorbed to ferrihydrite and gibbsite on the bed of the shallow channel through which the mine pool drains to the portal. Although mass balance calculations predict the formation of sufficient ferrihydrite to sorb 100% of the As dissolved in the mine pool, this attenuation process was ineffective possibly because the precipitated sorbents settled to the bottom of the water column or because of competition for sorption sites from Ca and HCO₃. The dissolved Sb/As molar ratio in portal effluent (0.082) is much greater than the Sb/As ratio of the mineralization (0.002) because of slower arsenopyrite oxidation and somewhat lesser sorption of Sb.  相似文献