Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

Letter to the editor     

Peter G. Wells 《Marine environmental research》1980,3(4):315-318

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Circulation over the continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Carter Ohlmann  P. Peter Niiler 《Progress in Oceanography》2005,64(1):45-81

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The weakening role of science in the management of groundfish off the east coast of Canada     

Shelton  Peter A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):723-729

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Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity in a population of brown bullhead (Ictalurus nebulosus) environmentally exposed to polycyclic hydrocarbons     

Jodon Traci Anne  Paul C. Baumann  Peter F. Landrum 《Marine environmental research》1988,24(1-4)

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On the radiated noise of the autosub autonomous underwater vehicle   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Griffiths  Gwyn; Enoch  Peter; Millard  Nicholas W. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(6):1195-1200

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Spatial variability in petrophysical properties in Upper Maastrichtian chalk outcrops at Stevns Klint, Denmark     

Peter Frykman   《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2001,18(10)

The spatial variability of porosity and permeability was determined for a section in the uppermost Maastrichtian chalk exposed in the Sigerslev quarry at Stevns Klint. The aims were threefold: (1) to quantify the spatial variability pattern and its link to geology by applying systematic variogram analysis procedure, (2) to detect potential cyclicity in the petrophysical properties in this pure and overtly homogeneous chalk, and (3) to compare the section with chalk reservoirs in the North Sea in order to asses to what extent this onshore sequence has a potential as an analogue of the offshore, more deeply buried chalk reservoirs. The interval is of comparable stratigraphic age to the uppermost reservoir zones in the Tor Formation of the North Sea chalk reservoirs. The variability and spatial correlation of porosity and permeability in both horizontal and vertical directions are interpreted in a geological context and show indications of small-scale heterogeneity at 15–25 cm scale, but the clear cyclic layering described from other chalk deposits is not recognised at this locality. The investigated outcrop is not a close analogue to North Sea reservoir chalk, but some aspects are common including basic material properties, porosity/permeability trends and the variability pattern. The outcrop has a potential as analogue for some of the onshore subsurface chalk successions at shallow burial depth that form important aquifers.  相似文献   

A new method for the generation of second-order random waves     

Peter Jan van Leeuwen  Gert Klopman 《Ocean Engineering》1996,23(2):167-192

In order to prevent the generation of spurious free sub- and superharmonics of random waves in a laboratory channel, the control signal for the wave board has to be derived according to a higher-order wave theory. An expression for this control signal has been derived with the perturbation method of multiple scales. It is much less complex and requires less computation time than the expressions obtained from the full second-order theory. The new method for second-order subharmonics was verified experimentally for waves with bichromatic and continuous first-order spectra. The data were analysed with the complex-harmonic principal-component analysis to reduce the influence of noise.  相似文献   

The transfer of reprocessing wastes from north-west Europe to the Arctic     

Peter Kershaw  Amanda Baxter 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》1995,42(6)

The discharge of radioactive waste, from nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, into the coastal waters of north-west Europe has resulted in a significant increase in the inventories of a number of artificial radionuclides in the North Atlantic. Radiocaesium, ⁹⁰Sr and ⁹⁹Tc, which behave conservatively in seawater, have been used widely as tracers of water movement through the North Sea, Norwegian Coastal Current, Barents Sea, Greenland Sea, Fram Strait, Eurasian Basin, East Greenland Current and Denmark Strait overflow. These studies are summarised in the present paper. It has been estimated that 22% of the ¹³⁷Cs Sellafield discharge has passed into the Barents Sea, en route to the Nansen Basin, via the Bjomoya-Fugloya Section, with another 13% passing through the Fram Strait. This amounts to 14 PBq ¹³⁷Cs. Quantifying the influx of other radionuclides has been more problematic. The inflowing Atlantic water now appears to be diluting waters in the Arctic Basin, which were contaminated in the late 1970s and early 1980s as a result of the substantial decrease in the discharge of reprocessing wastes. Sellafield (U.K.) has dominated the supply of ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, ⁹⁹Tc and Pu, whereas La Hague (France) has contributed a larger proportion of ¹²⁹I and ¹²⁵Sb.  相似文献   

Tritium profiles in the Weddell Sea     

Reinhold Bayer  Peter Schlosser 《Marine Chemistry》1991,35(1-4)

Tritium data were collected between 1985 and 1987 on several cruises of the German research icebreaker “Polarstern” to the Weddell Sea. Maximum tritium concentrations in the surface waters are of the order of 200 mTU. The minimum values observed in the Weddell Sea Deep Water at about 1000 m depth are about 15–40 mTU. The bottom waters show tritium concentrations of about 70–100 mTU in the central gyre, increasing to about 120 mTU in the northwestern corner of the Weddell Sea. The overflowing Ice Shelf Water observed on the continental slope west of the Filchner Depression has tritium concentrations close to those of the surface waters, indicating rapid renewal of this water mass. The data reflect the rapid renewal of the bottom waters in the northwestern corner of the Weddell Sea and the mixing of bottom water from this boundary current into the bottom waters of the central Weddell Gyre.  相似文献