Erratum to: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordli  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367

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The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordl  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.  相似文献   

Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland,the Czech Republic     

Vera Potop  Pavel Zahraniček  Luboš Türkott  Petr Štěpánek  Josef Soukup 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):1-19

This study has, for the first time, analysed in detail the risk occurrences of the last spring frost, first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period during the growing season of vegetable crops at a high horizontal resolution of 10 km in the Elbe River lowland in the Czech Republic. The daily minimum air temperature from 116 grid points throughout the studied area for the period 1961–2011 was used. The daily values of minimum air temperature ranges of 0 to ?1.1 °C, ?1.2 to ?2.2 °C and below ?2.2 °C were considered to constitute mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the last spring frost, the date of the first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period in the Elbe River lowland is provided. Secondly, the estimation of the probability of a later date in the spring and an earlier date in the fall for various severe frost events and the length of the frost-free period is determined. Third, the changes in the timing of the last and first frosts of the three severities, as well as the length of the frost-free period, are evaluated. From 1961 to 2011, the Elbe River lowland has experienced a decrease in the number of frost days, while the length of the frost-free period between the last spring frost and the first fall frost has increased. The temporal evolution of the frost-free period anomalies displays two distinct periods: a shortening of the frost-free period in the 1960s and an intensified lengthening of the frost-free period since the 1980s. Whereas the latest spring frost has ended on an earlier date across the Elbe River lowland, the first frost date in the fall has generally been delayed to a later date. The dates of the last spring frost have advanced by ?0.21 days per year on average. The fall dates are delayed up to 0.18 days per year, whereas the frost-free period is lengthening by up to 0.39 days per year on average. However, regional frost series suggests that the frost-free period exhibits a large amount of inter-annual variability. In terms of the growth of field vegetables, a late spring frost remains a risk factor, but the degree of risk has decreased. There is a 25 % chance of the occurrence of dangerous spring frosts during the planting of field vegetables after 3rd May, but after 15th May, the risk is only 10 %.  相似文献   

A new approach to determining asteroid masses from planetary range measurements     

Petr Kuchynka  William M. Folkner 《Icarus》2013,222(1):243-253

We describe a new approach to estimate asteroid masses from planetary range measurements. The approach significantly simplifies the process of parameter estimation and allows an effective control of systematic errors introduced by the omission of asteroids from the dynamical model. All asteroid masses are adjusted individually thus avoiding the usual distinction between masses considered individually and masses based on densities within the C, S and M taxonomic classes. Regularization is achieved by accounting, on each mass, for a prior uncertainty determined from available estimations of asteroid diameters and densities.The new approach is used to fit the asteroid model of the JPL planetary ephemeris to Mars range data. The adjusted planetary solutions exhibit similar extrapolation capacity as previous releases of the JPL ephemeris. Up to 27 asteroid masses are determined to better than 35%. The masses agree well with estimates obtained independently by other authors. The determined masses are also robust with respect to cross-validation on a dataset with a shorter time-span and with respect to a different selection of asteroids in the model.  相似文献   

Effects of social and climatic factors on building activity in the Czech lands between 1450 and 1950: a dendrochronological analysis     

Tom&#x; Kol&#x;  Petr Dobrovolný  Pter Szab  Tom&#x; Mikita  Tom&#x; Kyncl  Josef Kyncl  Irena Sochov  Ale&#x; Flídr  David Merta  Michal Rybní ek 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):123-132

The development of settlement and building activity is the result of socioeconomic, political and demographic changes in the past. However, accurate information on temporal variation in building activity is rather limited. Dendrochronological databases containing dated historical wooden constructions provide an important resource. We used 6514 tree-felling dates to reconstruct building activity in the Czech lands for the period 1450–1950. Comparing felling dates with historical events demonstrated that building activity was negatively associated with intense wars, particularly during the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648). After the Peace of Westphalia (1648), socioeconomic renewal and demographic growth were reflected in an upsurge of building activity, especially ecclesiastical buildings. While the construction of ecclesiastical and noble buildings culminated around the 1720s, rural buildings peaked in the 1780s and the 1820s. Although no direct effect of climate was demonstrated, adverse climatic conditions leading to harvest failures and subsequent famines (e.g. the ‘Hunger Years’ 1770–1772) significantly contributed to declines in building activity. In contrast, a higher number of felling dates were detected when strong and/or frequent windstorms occurred. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of building activity in Central Europe and advocates the use of dendrochronological databases for the investigation of human activities in history.  相似文献