Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

Constraining the origin and evolution of confined turbidite systems: southern Cretan margin,Eastern Mediterranean Sea (34°30–36°N)     

Tiago M. Alves  Vasilios Lykousis  Dimitris Sakellariou  Stamatina Alexandri  Paraskevi Nomikou 《Geo-Marine Letters》2007,27(1):41-61

Bathymetric, 9.5-kHz long-range sidescan sonar (OKEAN), seismic reflection and sediment-core data are used in the analysis of two tectonic troughs south of Crete, Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Here, up to 1.2 s two-way travel time (TWTT) of strata have accumulated since the Middle Miocene in association with extension in the South Aegean region. The study area comprises >100-km- long by >25-km-wide basins filled by sediments subdivided into two seismic units: (1) an upper Unit 1 deposited in sub-basins which follow the present-day configuration of the southern Cretan margin; (2) a basal Unit 2, more than 500 ms (TWTT) thick, accumulated in deeper half-graben/grabens distinct from the present-day depocentres. Both units overlap a locally stratified Unit 3 comprising the pre-Neogene core complex of Crete and Gavdos. In this work, the interpreted seismic units are correlated with the onshore stratigraphy, demonstrating that denudation processes occurring on Crete and Gavdos in response to major tectonic events have been responsible for high sedimentation rates along the proximal southern Cretan margin. Consequently, topographically confined sedimentary units have been deposited south of Crete in the last 12 Ma, including turbidites and other mass-flow deposits fed by evolving transverse and axial channel systems. Surface processes controlling facies distribution include the direct inflow of sediment from alluvial-fan systems and incising mountain rivers onto the Cretan slope, where significant sediment instability processes occur at present. In this setting, seismic profiles reveal eight different types of stratigraphic contacts on basin-margin highs, and basinal areas show evidence of halokinesis and/or fluid escape. The acquired data also show that significant changes to the margin’s configuration occurred in association with the post-Alpine tectonic and eustatic episodes affecting the Eastern Mediterranean.  相似文献   

Interference fringes on GLORIA side-scan sonar images from the Bering Sea and their implications     

Q. J. Huggett  A. K. Cooper  M. L. Somers  A. R. Stubbs 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1992,14(1):47-63

GLORIA side-scan sonographs from the Bering Sea Basin show a complex pattern of interference fringes sub-parallel to the ship's track. Surveys along the same trackline made in 1986 and 1987 show nearly identical patterns. It is concluded from this that the interference patterns are caused by features in the shallow subsurface rather than in the water column. The fringes are interpreted as a thin-layer interference effect that occurs when some of the sound reaching the seafloor passes through it and is reflected off a subsurface layer. The backscattered sound interferes (constructively or desctructively) with the reflected sound. Constructive/destructive interference occurs when the difference in the length of the two soundpaths is a whole/half multiple of GLORIA's 25 cm wavelength. Thus as range from the ship increases, sound moves in and out of phase causing bands of greater and lesser intensity on the GLORIA sonograph. Fluctuations (or wiggles) of the fringes on the GLORIA sonographs relate to changes in layer thickness. In principle, a simple three dimensional image of the subsurface layer may be obtained using GLORIA and bathymetric data from adjacent (parallel) ship's tracks. These patterns have also been identified in images from two other systems; SeaMARC II (12 kHz) long-range sonar, and TOBI (30 kHz) deep-towed sonar. In these, and other cases world-wide, the fringes do not appear with the same persistence as those seen in the Bering Sea.  相似文献   

The status of geological dredging techniques     

R. B. Kidd  Q. J. Huggett  A. T. S. Ramsay 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1990,12(1-2):131-143

Scientific sea-floor dredging is currently used in marine geology primarily by the hard-rock community interested in the recovery of basement rock samples from the unsedimented deep ocean floor. The technique has generally been eclipsed by ocean drilling for recovery of sedimentary rocks, because of perceived uncertainties in the location of sampling and in the representativeness of recovered material. This contribution reviews dredging equipment currently in use by marine geological institutions and refers to pinger attachments that allow precise information on the behaviour of the dredge to be telemetered back to the ship. We argue that improvements in ship navigation and transponder navigation at the seafloor, when used in conjunction with surface and/or deeply towed sidescan and swathemapping surveys, now allow for considerably less uncertainty on the location of dredge sampling. Refined sorting criteria for dredge hauls are now also available. Recent comparisons of regional sample recovery by ocean drilling and by dredge sampling indicate that the dredge hauls can usefully supplement the drilling data in the construction of sedimentary and tectonic histories of seafloor areas.  相似文献   

Mechanisms controlling the temporal variation of the sea ice edge in the Southern Ocean     

Noriaki Kimura 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(4):685-694

This paper examines the mechanism controlling the short time-scale variation of sea ice cover over the Southern Ocean. Sea ice concentration and ice velocity datasets derived from images of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are employed to reveal this mechanism. The contribution of both dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the change in ice edge location is examined by comparing the meridional velocity of ice edge displacement and sea ice drift. In the winter expansion phase, the thermodynamic process of new ice production off the ice edge plays an important role in daily advances of ice cover, whereas daily retreats are mostly due to southward ice drift. On the other hand, both advance and retreat of ice edges in the spring contraction phase are mostly caused by the dynamic process of the ice drift. Based on the above mechanism and the linear relation between the degree of ice production at the ice edge and northward wind speed, the seasonal advance of ice cover can be roughly reproduced using the meridional velocity of ice drift at the ice edge.  相似文献   

The Levant Slumps and the Phoenician Structures: collapse features along the continental margin of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea     

Yossi Mart  William Ryan 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2007,28(4):297-307

Two distinct series of slumps deform the upper part of the sedimentary sequence along the continental margin of the Levant. One series is found along the base of the continental slope, where it overlies the disrupted eastern edge of the Messinian evaporites. The second series of slumps transects the continental margin from the shelf break to the Levant Basin. It seemed that the two series were triggered by two unrelated, though contemporaneous, processes. The shore-parallel slumps were initiated by basinwards flow of the Messinian salt, that carried along the overlying Plio-Quaternary sediments. Seawater that percolated along the detachment faults dissolved the underlying salt to form distinctly disrupted structures. The slope-normal slumps are located on top of large canyons that cut into the pre-Messinian sedimentary rocks. A layer of salt is found in the canyons, and the Plio-Quaternary sediments were deposited on that layer. The slumps are bounded by large, NW-trending faults where post-Messinian faulted offset was measured. We presume that the flow of the salt in the canyons also drives the slope-normal slumps. Thus thin-skinned halokynetic processes generated the composite post-Tortonian structural patterns of the Levant margin. The Phoenician Structures are a prime example of the collapse of a distal continental margin due to the dissolution of a massive salt layer.  相似文献   

A climatology of mesoscale model simulated low-level wind jets over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, Alaska     

Haibo Liu  Peter Q. Olsson  Karl P. Volz  Han Yi 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,70(4):551

Weather in the North Gulf of Alaska is characterized by a high frequency of deep synoptic-scale low-pressure systems, especially during the cold season. The strong pressure gradients of these storms interact with the extremely rugged terrain of the coastal mountains to produce a variety of channeled flows. These surface wind regimes are not well documented in the scientific community, due to the paucity of observations. Modeling of these phenomena in regions of complex terrain is of great interest to those working with hydrodynamic, wave, and pollutant transport models in coastal and shelf areas. Such models, when coupled with ocean and coastal-ecology counterparts, give a broad view of the role surface winds play in shaping local coastal marine ecosystem in this region. This paper presents a climatology of simulated low-level wind jets over the domain of Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait along Alaska's south-central coast. Daily simulations using the RAMS model were conducted in a 36-h forecast mode for the cold-season period 10/1/03 to 3/31/04. Systematic analysis of the resulting simulated low-level wind field makes it possible to characterize these jets and gap flows in spatial and temporal detail. The comparison between the RAMS winds and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived winds when available verifies the existence of these wind jets and the capability of the model to simulate these cases. Clearly, the results of a study in this region depend on the fidelity of the model at these scales (O[5 km]). The SAR comparisons attempt to help establish this. From the 6 months of simulations over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, the low-level wind jets are classified into 10 different regimes by location and orientation. These regimes are categorized into four more general groups: cross-channel westerly, easterly, and up and down Inlet flows. The nature of a particular regime is largely a function of pressure gradient orientation and local topography. Jets in the same group have a similar occurrence distribution with time. Some form of jet occurred in the study region almost daily each month of the period, with December 2003 having the highest frequency of wind jets.  相似文献   

Facies reconstruction from resistivity-at-the-bit images recorded in a submarine felsic volcanic succession     

Juliane Arnold  Anne Bartetzko  Holger Paulick  Gerardo Iturrino 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2007,28(4):331-341

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Mixed layer variability in Northern Arabian Sea as detected by an Argo float     

T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar  D. Swain  M. Ravichandran 《Ocean Science Journal》2007,42(4):241-246

Seasonal evolution of surface mixed layer in the Northern Arabian Sea (NAS) between 17° N–20.5° N and 59° E-69° E was observed by using Argo float daily data for about 9 months, from April 2002 through December 2002. Results showed that during April - May mixed layer shoaled due to light winds, clear sky and intense solar insolation. Sea surface temperature (SST) rose by 2.3 °C and ocean gained an average of 99.8 Wm⁻². Mixed layer reached maximum depth of about 71 m during June - September owing to strong winds and cloudy skies. Ocean gained abnormally low ∼18 Wm⁻² and SST dropped by 3.4 °C. During the inter monsoon period, October, mixed layer shoaled and maintained a depth of 20 to 30 m. November - December was accompanied by moderate winds, dropping of SST by 1.5 °C and ocean lost an average of 52.5 Wm⁻². Mixed layer deepened gradually reaching a maximum of 62 m in December. Analysis of surface fluxes and winds suggested that winds and fluxes are the dominating factors causing deepening of mixed layer during summer and winter monsoon periods respectively. Relatively high correlation between MLD, net heat flux and wind speed revealed that short term variability of MLD coincided well with short term variability of surface forcing.  相似文献   

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Sound Speed at the PN Section   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lian-Gang Lü  Hong-Xia Chen  Ye-Li Yuan 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(4):673-679

Gridded sound speed data were calculated using Del Grosso's formulation from the temperature and salinity data at the PN section in the East China Sea covering 92 cruises between February 1978 and October 2000. The vertical gradients of sound speed are mainly related to the seasonal variations, and the strong horizontal gradients are mainly related to the Kuroshio and the upwelling. The standard deviations show that great variations of sound speed exist in the upper layer and in the slope zone. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that contributions of surface heating and the Kuroshio to sound speed variance are almost equivalent. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献