Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF     

Jian RAO  Rongcai REN  Haishan CHEN  Xiangwen LIU  Yueyue YU  Yang YANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(5):479-494

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.  相似文献   

浅析道德情感在道德修养过程中的作用     

饶华 《成都信息工程学院学报》2008,23(1):104-107

道德情感作为人类特有的一种高级情感,是人类道德心理中最深沉又最活跃的内容,同时又是人们完善自己的一个方面。在道德实践活动中,道德情感和道德意识诸要素之间有着紧密的联系,着重论述道德情感在人的道德修养过程中的重要性。  相似文献   

润肠排毒膏治疗功能性便秘60例临床观察          下载免费PDF全文

李卿  饶文娟  曾松林 《应用海洋学学报》2019,35(9):16-18

目的：观察中药膏方润肠排毒膏治疗功能性便秘的临床疗效。方法：将120例功能性便秘患者随机分为2组。治疗组60例采用润肠排毒膏治疗,对照组60例予枸橼酸莫沙必利片治疗。2组均以2周为1个疗程。比较2组综合疗效及症状总积分。结果：总有效率治疗组为91.7%,对照组为71.7%,2组比较,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.01）;2组症状总积分治疗前后组内比较及治疗后组间比较,差异均有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论：润肠排毒膏治疗功能性便秘效果优于莫沙必利。  相似文献   

Neptune Trojans: a Revisit and a New Membertwo     

Wu Rui-jun  Zhou Lei  Zhou Li-yong 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(2):262-277

Up to now, 17 Neptune Trojan asteroids have been detected with their orbits being well determined by continuous observations. This paper analyzes systematically their orbital dynamics. Our results show that except for two temporary members with relatively short lifespans on Trojan orbits, the vast majority of Neptune Trojans located within their orbital uncertainties may survive in the solar system age. The escaping probability of Neptune Trojans, through slow diffusion in the orbital element space in 4.5 billion years, is estimated to be ～50%. The asteroid 2012 UW177 classified as a Centaur asteroid by the IAU Minor Planet Center currently is in fact a Neptune Trojan. Numerical simulations indicate that it is librating on the tadpole-shaped orbit around the Neptune's L₄ point. It was captured into the current orbit approximately 0.23 million years ago, and will stay there for at least another 1.3 million years in the future. Its high inclination of i ≈ 54^° not only makes it the most inclined Neptune Trojan, but also makes it exhibit the complicated and interesting co-orbital transitions between the leading and trailing Trojans via the quasi-satellite orbit phase.  相似文献   

柴达木盆地西部油气藏的破坏类型与机理   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘卫红  郭泽清  李本亮  饶孟余  温志峰  杨和山 《高校地质学报》2006,12(1):131-141

油气藏破坏是一种普遍的自然现象,地质历史时期任何类型的油气聚集都是短暂的动态变化史体,均随着时间的推移,在某些地质因素的影响下遭到破坏。根据构造演化史和成藏史研究,柴达木盆地西部上新世-第四纪是原生油气藏的破坏和次生油气藏的形成时期。野外地质考察发现油气藏破坏的地面显示类型多样,主要有：油砂、固体沥青和石蜡以及泥火山或油墩子。对油气藏的破坏因素分析表明：柴西油气藏破坏类型主要有断裂活动破坏、油藏抬升剥蚀破坏和异常高压作用破坏3种类型,而且油气藏破坏往往是断裂活动和汕藏抬升综合作用的结果。该研究对当地的油气勘探具有一定的参考和指导意义。  相似文献   

武汉天兴洲长江大桥市政配套工程测量技术方案     

饶学斌  李德伟 《地理空间信息》2006,4(4):68-71

武汉天兴洲大桥是武汉市继长江大桥之后又一座大型公铁两用大桥,两岸市政配套工程属大型市政工程,详细介绍了它的控制测量和地形测量技术方案及产品的检查验收,为类似工程的测量方案提供借鉴。  相似文献   

最佳子集多元线性回归模型在热带气旋风圈 变化预报中的应用     

饶晨泓  陈光华  陈可鑫  朱志伟 《气候与环境研究》2021,26(1):115-122

基于最佳路径(IBTrACS)数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的再分析(ERA-Interim)数据,建立了西北太平洋上(Western North Pacific,WNP)热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的七级风圈(R17)变化的最佳子集多元线性回归(bs-MLR)模型.首先根据2001～...  相似文献   

链烷烃的热力学性质与分子拓扑指数的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

饶火瑜  朱霞萍  乐长高 《华东地质学院学报》2002,25(3):244-249

定义了一种新的连接性指数^1Y=Σk1/m^2 n^2,研究了链烷烃的标准生成焓、标准熵、标准生成吉布斯自由能等三个热力学性质与碳原子个数N，^1Y之间的定量关系，相关系数为优，其计算值与实验值较为接近，对未参与回归的正癸烷的60个异构体的三个热力学性质进行了计算，计算值与实验值较一致。  相似文献   

江西陆相红盆岩石地层划分与对比     

廖瑞君  衷存堤  肖晓林 《江西地质》2001,15(3):166-170

本文论述了江西陆相红盆地正式和非正式岩石地层划分的原则和方法；从构造界面、岩性岩相、古生物等7个方面阐述了陆相红盆地之间的岩石地层可进行对比。  相似文献   

多分类器联合监督分类方法研究     

饶雄  高振宇 《四川测绘》2006,29(1):15-16,14

针对遥感图像监督分类方法适用范围不同且分类机制各有优劣的特点,本文提出将最大似然法与最小距离法结合的监督分类法。对eTM 影像进行分类,结果表明,与单一分类器的分类结果相比,分类器结合的监督分类技术能有效提高遥感图像专题信息提取的精度。  相似文献