Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE     

J. Hansen  M. Sato  R. Ruedy  P. Kharecha  A. Lacis  R. Miller  L. Nazarenko  K. Lo  G. A. Schmidt  G. Russell  I. Aleinov  S. Bauer  E. Baum  B. Cairns  V. Canuto  M. Chandler  Y. Cheng  A. Cohen  A. Del Genio  G. Faluvegi  E. Fleming  A. Friend  T. Hall  C. Jackman  J. Jonas  M. Kelley  N. Y. Kiang  D. Koch  G. Labow  J. Lerner  S. Menon  T. Novakov  V. Oinas  Ja. Perlwitz  Ju. Perlwitz  D. Rind  A. Romanou  R. Schmunk  D. Shindell  P. Stone  S. Sun  D. Streets  N. Tausnev  D. Thresher  N. Unger  M. Yao  S. Zhang 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(7-8):661-696

We carry out climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880–2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

The influence of thermodynamic phase on the retrieval of mixed-phase cloud microphysical and optical properties in the visible and near-infrared region   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joonsuk Lee Ping Yang Dessler  A.E. Baum  B.A. Platnick  S. 《Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, IEEE》2006,3(3):287-291

Cloud microphysical and optical properties are inferred from the bidirectional reflectances simulated for a single-layered cloud consisting of an external mixture of ice particles and liquid droplets. The reflectances are calculated with a rigorous discrete ordinates radiative transfer model and are functions of the cloud effective particle size, the cloud optical thickness, and the values of the ice fraction in the cloud (i.e., the ratio of ice water content to total water content). In the present light scattering and radiative transfer simulations, the ice fraction is assumed to be vertically homogeneous; the habit (shape) percentage as a function of ice particle size is consistent with that used for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational (Collection 4 and earlier) cloud products; and the surface is assumed to be Lambertian with an albedo of 0.03. Furthermore, error analyses are performed that pertain to the inference of the mixed-phase cloud effective particle size and optical thickness. Errors are calculated with respect to the assumption of a cloud containing solely liquid or ice phase particles. The analyses suggest that the effective particle size inferred for a mixed-phase cloud can be underestimated (or overestimated) if pure liquid phase (or pure ice phase) is assumed for the cloud, whereas the corresponding cloud optical thickness can be overestimated (or underestimated).  相似文献   

Snowline instability in a general circulation model: application to Carboniferous glaciation     

Thomas J Crowley  Kuor-Jier Joseph Yip  Steven K Baum 《Climate Dynamics》1994,10(8):363-376

For over twenty years it has been known that energy balance models (EBMs) with snow-albedo feedback are characterized by unstable behavior in some areas of parameter space. This behavior leads to rapid changes in snow area due to small changes in forcing, and has been termed the small ice cap instability (SICI). It has never been clarified whether this behaviour reflects a real feature of the climate system or a limitation in EBMs. In this study we demonstrate that evidence for similar unstable behavior can also be found in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), using a realistic set of boundary conditions for the Carboniferous (300 Ma), one of the most extensive periods of glaciation in Earth history. When solar luminosity is sequentially lowered to near values appropriate for the Carboniferous, there is a discontinuous increase in summer snow area. The instability occurs in approximately the same area of parameter space as one previously found in an EBM. Analysis of selected fields indicates that the circulation is primarily affected in the area of snow increase; far-field effects are minimal. There is good agreement between model-generated summer snowcover and one reconstruction of Carboniferous ice cover. Although more work is required on this topic, our results provide increased support for the possibility that the snowline instability represents a real feature of the climate system, and that it may help explain some cases of glacial inception and abrupt transitions in Earth history.  相似文献   

The Ringberg Standards for NGC 1068     

J. Bland-Hawthorn  J.F. Gallimore  L.J. Tacconi  E. Brinks  S.A. Baum  R.R.J. Antonucci  G.N. Cecil 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,248(1-2):9-19

At the end of three days' spirited discussion of the type 2 Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068, what do we think we understand about this object? New observations -- particularly in the infrared and radio -- are helping to resolve old problems, while drawing attention to new ones. It appears that NGC 1068 is a relatively normal spiral galaxy in which large-scale gravitational disturbances are funneling matter into the nucleus. A collimated outflow disturbs the interstellar medium out to kiloparsec scales, but the nucleus itself is hidden behind an opaque screen. Radio observations have now pierced the screen, and suggest that at the center of it all, a 10-20 million solar mass black hole is accreting at close to its Eddington limit.  相似文献   

A Typology of Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage in Australia's Large Non-Metropolitan Cities,Towns and Regions     

Scott Baum 《The Australian geographer》2006,37(2):233-258

Australia's large regional cities and towns display a wide variation in their adjustment to the socio-economic transitions that have occurred over the past decade. In terms of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage, these changes, often associated with globalisation, wider economic and technological restructuring, the changing demographics of the population and shifts in public policy, are not evenly dispersed across non-metropolitan regions. Such outcomes have been discussed across a variety of academic disciplines using a variety of data and methods, and the research undertaken has provided a useful grounding for contemporary studies both theoretically and methodologically. Analysis of new data provides an opportunity to extend and update our understanding. This paper presents an analysis of secondary data aimed at analysing non-metropolitan cities, towns and regions based on differential levels of socio-economic performance. Using an alternative clustering method, this paper groups non-metropolitan cities, towns and regions according to the degree to which they share similar socio-economic and demographic outcomes. These clusters form the basis of a typology representing the range of socio-economic and demographic outcomes at the non-metropolitan level.  相似文献