基于空间自相关的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE标准化研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李娜  陈新军  王冉 《海洋学报》2018,40(2):61-68

CPUE的观测往往不是独立的，而是存在空间相关性的。但是，大多数的CPUE标准化方法通常都假设名义CPUE在空间上是相互独立的。为此，本研究以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼为例，采用2000-2014年1-5月中国大陆鱿钓生产统计数据以及对应的海表温度和叶绿素浓度数据，选择广义线性模型（general linear model，GLM）为基础模型，将空间自相关加入到GLM中，比较标准GLM和4种加入空间自相关的空间GLM的CPUE标准化。根据最小信息准则（Akaike Information Criterion，AIC）及贝叶斯信息准则（Bayesian Information Criterion，BIC），空间自相关的GLM的CPUE标准化结果优于标准GLM，其中指数模型的CPUE标准化结果最佳。同时，标准GLM与空间自相关的GLM相比，存在精确度过高估计的问题。因此，在CPUE标准化中，应充分考虑空间自相关这一因素。  相似文献   

Diatom‐based reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity in the South China Sea over the last 15 000 years     

Hui Jiang  Mads F. Knudsen  Marit‐Solveig Seidenkrantz  Meixun Zhao  Longbin Sha  Lihua Ran 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(1):208-219

We present a new reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity (SSS) over the past 15 000 years based on a diatom record from piston core 17940, located on the northern slope of the South China Sea (SCS). The reconstructed diatom‐based summer SSS values for the modern period are in accord with instrumental observations of summer SSS in the area. Here, the modern summer SSS is primarily controlled by river runoff, in particular from the Pearl River. The reconstruction presented in this study shows that the summer SSS varied between 33.3 and 34.2 psu over the past 15 000 years. The long‐term summer SSS trend closely followed the trend of the orbitally controlled solar insolation at 20°N, suggesting that orbital forcing was the dominant driver of changes in summer SSS in this area. Comparisons to speleothem δ¹⁸O data and studies of surface hydrography in the region suggest that changes in solar insolation affected the summer SSS through changes in the East Asian Monsoon and sea‐level changes associated with the last deglaciation. Univariate spectral analyses indicate that centennial‐scale oscillatory variations in summer SSS were superimposed on the long‐term trend. During the deglacial period (c. 12 000–9000 cal. a BP), the dominant periodicity was centred around 230–250 years, whereas a ～350‐year oscillation dominated in the period 2200–4500 cal. a BP. The balance of evidence suggests that these centennial‐scale changes in summer SSS may have been driven by solar‐induced changes in the East Asian Monsoon, but further evidence is needed to firmly establish this relationship.  相似文献   

The impact of deformation on vortex development in a baroclinic moist atmosphere     

Na Li  Lingkun Ran  Shouting Gao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(2):233-246

A mathematical relation between deformation and vertical vorticity tendency is built by introducing the frontogenesis function and the complete vertical vorticity equation, which is derived by virtue of moist potential vorticity. From the mathematical relation, it is shown that properly configured atmospheric conditions can make deformation exert a positive contribution to vortex development at rates comparable to other favorable factors. The effect of deformation on vortex development is not only related to the deformation itself, but also depends on the current thermodynamic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, such as the convective stability, moist baroclinicity and vertical wind shear(or horizontal vorticity). A diagnostic study of a heavy-rainfall case that occurred during 20–22 July 2012 shows that deformation has the most remarkable effect on the increase in vertical vorticity during the rapid development stage of the low vortex during its whole life cycle. This feature is mainly due to the existence of an approximate neutral layer(about 700 h Pa) in the atmosphere where the convective stability tends to be zero. The neutral layer makes the effect of deformation on the vertical vorticity increase significantly during the vortex development stage, and thus drives the vertical vorticity to increase.  相似文献   

东中国海黑潮海洋锋的季节变化特征及其成因   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张然  徐海明  张百超 《气象科学》2016,36(2):203-211

利用高分辨率海洋和大气再分析资料研究了东中国海黑潮海洋锋的季节变化特征及其成因。研究表明,东海黑潮海洋锋存在明显的季节变化,从冬季到次年春季逐渐增强,并在春季达到最强,初夏以后强度逐渐减弱,9—10月达到全年最弱。通过诊断混合层热流量方程发现,东海黑潮区一年四季均表现为暖的温度平流,有利于海洋锋的形成和维持,该暖平流也存在季节变化并在春季达到最大,对海洋锋在春季达到最强起了重要作用。海气界面净热通量在秋冬季对海洋锋的形成有促进作用,有利于海洋锋增强,而在春夏季则起抑制作用,促进海洋锋消亡。温度垂直输送全年对海洋锋起一定程度的抑制作用。总之,在海温水平平流和海表净热通量的共同作用下导致海洋锋春季达到最强,而夏秋季海表净热通量和温度垂直输送作用的共同作用致使海洋锋减弱并最后消失。因此,海洋的动力和热力共同作用导致了东海黑潮海洋锋的季节变化,其中海温水平平流和海表净热通量对海洋锋的季节变化起主要作用,而温度垂直输送项对海洋锋的发展起抑制作用,但影响相对较小。  相似文献   

天津蓟县东水厂锰方硼石矿床成因新认识   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王富良  付勇  徐志刚  裴浩翔  江冉  周文喜 《地质学报》2016,90(2):398-408

天津蓟县东水厂锰方硼石矿床是世界上唯一一个具有经济开发价值的锰方硼石矿床,锰方硼石赋存与中元古代高于庄组二段泥晶白云岩中。本文通过微量元素分析探讨了锰方硼石的成矿环境,测定结果显示Sr/Ba=0.125~0.128;V/(Ni+V)=0.230~0.320;Th/U=4.356~4.898;V/Cr=0.018~0.026,各微量元素对比值范围变化不大;LREE总量为66.12×10~(-6)~67.90×10~(-6),HREE总量(包含Y)为18.88×10~(-6)~19.56×10~(-6),LREE/HREE值为3.38~3.60,Y/Ho值介于28.25~29.14之间,δCe介于0.829~0.854之间,显示为弱的负Ce异常,δEu值介于0.831~0.846之间,显示为弱的负Eu异常。地球化学数据指示其成矿环境属海相沉积环境,海水环境为相对氧化的状态,成矿过程中有陆源物质的加入。Sm/Nd-Eu/Sm图解表明研究区与柴达木盆地第三系蒸发岩较为相似,反应锰方硼石成矿时具有类似的蒸发成因。通过对硼同位素(δ~(11)B的数值范围为1.4‰~10.7‰)的解译进一步探讨了锰方硼石在原生成矿阶段的具体成因(海相蒸发沉积)。结合前人所做的锰方硼石地球化学数据,对东水厂锰方硼石矿床的成因做出了新的解释,即锰方硼石成矿时应属海相蒸发成因,而热液活动的过程则可能是发生于锰方硼石成矿之后,属后期热液改造作用,从而形成了锰方硼石复杂的地球化学特征。  相似文献   

一种多系统组合导航快速选星方法     

马宏阳  程鹏飞  李冉  黄华东 《测绘工程》2016,25(1):59-64

采用多卫星导航系统组合导航,定位精度和系统可靠性会大幅提升,但导航定位运算量也会成倍增长。为解决多系统组合导航定位精度与实时性之间的矛盾,提出一种新的选星方法。新方法不追求最小GDOP值,而是以满足导航定位精度的GDOP值为前提,结合模糊理论中隶属函数的思想,按卫星在星座中均匀分布为原则进行选星。推导伪距测量的误差模型,分析了GDOP与测量误差之间的关系。北斗、GPS和GLONASS三系统组合导航选星实验结果表明,在不超过3次求解GDOP值的情况下,新方法能以不小于98%的概率得到GDOP≤4。  相似文献   

A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts          下载免费PDF全文

Ran Tao  Daniel Strandow  Michael Findley  Jean‐Claude Thill  James Walsh 《Transactions in GIS》2016,20(3):413-425

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.  相似文献   

Active Characteristics and Paleoearthquakes in the West Kalpin Nappe Since the Holocene,SW Tianshan Mountain     

Li An  Ran Yongkang  Liu Huaguo  Xu Liangxin 《地球科学进展》2016,31(4):377-390

the Kalpin nappe is an important multiple thrust system. It is important to study the Cenozoic tectonic of the Tianshan Mountain. Holocene active characteristics and paleoearthquake of the Kalpin nappe can be used to evaluate the neotectonic of this area. In this paper, we accurately measured the fault scarp in the front of three thrust-fold faults and analyzed paleoearthquake events in the trenches of the Kalpin nappe. Using the ¹⁰Be exposure age, we obtained those geomorphic surface ages and paleoearthquake times. The result showed that the slip rates of the west Kalpintag fault, aozitag fault and the tuoketag fault were 1.45(+1.68/-0.44) mm/a, 0.81(+0.35/-0.19) mm/a and (0.3±0.05) mm/a, respectively since the Holocene. The slip rate indicated that the increased activity transferred from back-row fault to front-row fault and accorded with the piggy-back propagation model in the Tianshan Mountain. Displacements and recurrence intervals of paleoearthquakes was similar to the slip rate characteristics. It also showed paleoearthquakes in the front row fault were stronger than paleoearthquakes of the back row fault. The strong paleoearthquake which caused the highest surface rupture happened in the Kalpintag fault. The interval of paleoearthquakes was about 4 ka and the displacement of every paleoearthquake was about 3 m in the west Kalpintag fault; the interval of paleoearthquakes was about 2 ka and the displacement of every paleoearthquake was about 1m in the aozitag fault; the tuoketag fault ruptured only one paleoearthquake since 7 ka. The Piqiang tear fault was the tectonic result of different shortening rate between the west Kalpin system and the east Kalpin system. The shortening rate of west Kalpin system was obviously stronger than the east Kalpin system. The huge separation distance was near 20 km between the east and the west back-row fault. Because the slip rate of system transferred to the front-row fault in the piggy-back propagation model, the separation distance (~4 km) between the east and the west front-row fault was increasing.  相似文献   

Copper Speciation in a Collection of Geochemical Reference Materials Using Sequential Extraction and Evaluation of the Validity Using XANES Spectroscopy          下载免费PDF全文

Atsuyuki Ohta  Ran Kubota 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(1):117-134

Copper speciation in a collection of Japanese geochemical reference materials (JSO‐1, JLk‐1, JSd‐1, ‐2, ‐3 and ‐4, JMs‐1 and JMs‐2) was achieved by sequential extraction and characterised using X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure spectroscopy. In the first step of the extraction, referred to as the acid fraction, between 1% and 20% total Cu within the reference materials was extracted. Such a result is typically accounted for by absorption of Cu onto clay minerals. However, the presence of Cu sulfate (an oxidation product of chalcopyrite) was observed in some of the stream sediments affected by mining activity (JSd‐2 and JSd‐3) instead. Copper was extracted in the reducible fraction (targeting Fe hydroxide and Mn oxide) (2–49% total Cu). Between 2% and 51% Cu was extracted in the oxidised fraction (targeting sulfides and organic matter). X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure spectroscopy clarified that the reducible fraction consisted of Cu bound to Fe hydroxide, whereas the oxidised fraction was a mixture of Cu bound to humic acid (HA) and Cu sulfide. In the oxidisable fraction, chalcopyrite was the predominant species identified in JSd‐2, and Cu bound to HA was the major species identified in JSO‐1 (a soil sample).  相似文献   

关于对海洋监测人员培训的初步探讨          下载免费PDF全文

徐然 《海洋开发与管理》2016,33(3):103-105

文章从海洋监测人员培训的起源与发展、存在问题和建议等方面对此项工作进行了论述。分析了此项工作取得的成绩与发展现状。通过对该工作开展过程中得到的经验与教训,提出了对此项工作的建议。  相似文献