From rainfed agriculture to stress-avoidance irrigation: I. A generalized irrigation scheme with stochastic soil moisture   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Giulia Vico  Amilcare Porporato 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(2):263-271

With vast regions already experiencing water shortages, it is becoming imperative to manage sustainably the available water resources. As agriculture is by far the most important user of freshwater and the role of irrigation is projected to increase in face of climate change and increased food requirements, it is particularly important to develop simple, widely applicable models of irrigation water needs for short- and long-term water resource management. Such models should synthetically provide the key irrigation quantities (volumes, frequencies, etc.) for different irrigation schemes as a function of the main soil, crop, and climatic features, including rainfall unpredictability. Here we consider often-employed irrigation methods (e.g., surface and sprinkler irrigation systems, as well as modern micro-irrigation techniques) and describe them under a unified conceptual and theoretical framework, which includes rainfed agriculture and stress-avoidance irrigation as extreme cases. We obtain mostly analytical solutions for the stochastic steady state of soil moisture probability density function with random rainfall timing and amount, and compute water requirements as a function of climate, crop, and soil parameters. These results provide the necessary starting point for a full assessment of irrigation strategies, with reference to sustainability, productivity, and profitability, developed in a companion paper [Vico G, Porporato A. From rainfed agriculture to stress-avoidance irrigation: II. Sustainability, crop yield, and net profit. Adv Water Resour 2011;34(2):272-81].  相似文献   

Modelling of solute transport in rivers under different flow rates: A case study without transient storage     

Renata J. Romanowicz  Marzena Osuch  Steve Wallis 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(1):98-125

A methodology to derive solute transport models at any flow rate is presented. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the assessment of uncertainty of predictions that incorporate parameterisation based on flow rate. A simple treatment of uncertainty takes into account heteroscedastic modelling errors related to tracer experiments performed over a range of flow rates, as well as the uncertainty of the observed flow rates themselves. The proposed approach is illustrated using two models for the transport of a conservative solute: a physically based, deterministic, advection-dispersion model (ADE), and a stochastic, transfer function based, active mixing volume model (AMV). For both models the uncertainty of any parameter increases with increasing flow rate (reflecting the heteroscedastic treatment of modelling errors at different observed flow rates), but in contrast the uncertainty of travel time, computed from the predicted model parameters, was found to decrease with increasing flow rate.  相似文献   

On the choice of calibration periods and objective functions: A practical guide to model parameter identification   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Renata J. Romanowicz  Marzena Osuch  Magdalena Grabowiecka 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(6):1477-1503

Despite the development of new measuring techniques, monitoring systems and advances in computer technology, rainfall-flow modelling is still a challenge. The reasons are multiple and fairly well known. They include the distributed, heterogeneous nature of the environmental variables affecting flow from the catchment. These are precipitation, evapotranspiration and in some seasons and catchments in Poland, snow melt also. This paper presents a review of work done on the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff modelling, with a focus on the conceptual HBV model. We give a synthesis of the problems and propose a practical guide to the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff models.  相似文献   

Seasonal snow cover decreases young water fractions in high Alpine catchments     

Natalie Ceperley  Giulia Zuecco  Harsh Beria  Luca Carturan  Anthony Michelon  Daniele Penna  Joshua Larsen  Bettina Schaefli 《水文研究》2020,34(25):4794-4813

Estimation of young water fractions (F_yw), defined as the fraction of water in a stream younger than approximately 2–3 months, provides key information for water resource management in catchments where runoff is dominated by snowmelt. Knowing the average dependence of summer flow on winter precipitation is an essential context for comparing regional drought severity and provides the hydrological template for downstream water users and ecosystems. However, F_yw estimation based on seasonal signals of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen has not yet explicitly addressed how to parsimoniously include the seasonal shift of water input from snow. Using experimental data from three high-elevation, Alpine catchments (one dominated by glacier and two by snow), we propose a framework to explicitly include the delays induced by snow storage into estimates of F_yw. Scrutinizing the key methodological choices when estimating F_yw from isotope data, we find that the methods used to construct precipitation input signals from sparse isotope samples can significantly impact F_yw. Given this sensitivity, our revised procedure estimates a distribution of F_yw values that incorporates a wide range of possible methodological choices and their uncertainties; it furthermore compares the commonly used amplitude ratio approach to a direct convolution approach, which circumvents the assumption that the isotopic signals have a sine curve shape, an assumption that is generally violated in snow-dominated environments. Our new estimates confirm that high-elevation Alpine catchments have low F_yw values, spanning from 8 to 11%. Such low values have previously been interpreted as the impact of seasonal snow storage alone, but our comparison of different F_yw estimation methods suggests that these low F_yw values result from a combination of both snow cover effects and longer storage in the subsurface. In contrast, in the highest elevation, glacier dominated catchment, F_yw is 3–4 times greater compared to the other two catchments, due to the lower storage and faster drainage processes. A future challenge, capturing spatio-temporal snowmelt isotope signals during winter baseflow and the snowmelt period, remains to improve constraints on the F_yw estimation technique.  相似文献   

Multi-stage metamorphism by progressive accretion of continental blocks,example from the Western Hindu Kush     

Hezbullah Moiny  Shah Wali Faryad  Renata Čopjaková  Radim Jedlicka 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(7):693-717

Basement rocks from the Western Hindu Kush preserve evidence of multiple metamorphic and magmatic events that occurred along the boundary between the Archean–Proterozoic Afghan Central and Afghan–Tajik Blocks. To verify the different metamorphic stages or events, mineral textures and phase equilibria in metamorphic basement rocks and their age relations to magmatic episodes have been investigated. Quartzofeldspathic gneiss and migmatite with lenses of amphibolite (with assumed Proterozoic age for their metamorphism) are intruded by the Triassic Hindu Kush granitoid batholith and small Cretaceous and Oligocene granite intrusions. The age of thermal overprint (210–170 Ma) by the Triassic batholith is confirmed by new monazite data. Both Triassic and Cretaceous granitoids and surrounding basement rocks underwent subsequent metamorphism up to epidote–amphibolite facies. The degree of this metamorphism increases southward at the contact to the Kabul Block, which under-plates the Western Hindu Kush from the south. An early Miocene age was obtained by Pb–Th analyses in thorite and huttonite, which are close or slightly younger than the Oligocene granite in this area. The Cretaceous meta-granodiorite near the border with the Kabul Block contains xenoliths of granulite facies rocks that could come from the Neoarchean granulite facies basement of the Kabul Block. The multi-stage metamorphic and magmatic evolution classifies the Hindu Kush mountain belt as a long-lived suture zone that was active since the early Palaeozoic. The results of this study support the interpretation about possible relations of the Afghan Central Blocks to the southern margin of Eurasia during the evolution of Para- and Neotethys.  相似文献   

The influence of slope-angle ratio on the dynamics of granular flows: insights from laboratory experiments     

R. Sulpizio  D. Castioni  L. A. Rodriguez-Sedano  D. Sarocchi  F. Lucchi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(11):77

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Analysis of macroseismic fields using statistical data depth functions: considerations leading to attenuation probabilistic modelling     

Claudio?Agostinelli  Renata?RotondiEmail author 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(7):1869-1884

Modelling seismic attenuation is one of the most critical points in the hazard assessment process. In this article we consider the spatial distribution of the effects caused by an earthquake as expressed by the values of the macroseismic intensity recorded at various locations surrounding the epicentre. Considering the ordinal nature of the intensity, a way to show its decay with distance is to draw curves—isoseismal lines—on maps, which bound points of intensity not smaller than a fixed value. These lines usually take the form of closed and nested curves around the epicentre, with highly different shapes because of the effects of ground conditions and of complexities in rupture propagation. Forecasting seismic attenuation of future earthquakes requires stochastic modelling of the decay on the basis of a common spatial pattern. The aim of this study is to consider a statistical methodology that identifies a general shape, if it exists, for isoseismal lines of a set of macroseismic fields. Data depth is a general nonparametric method for analysis of probability distributions and datasets. It has arisen as a statistical method to order points of a multivariate space, e.g., Euclidean space \({\mathbb {R}}^{p}\), \(p \ge 1\), according to the centrality with respect to a distribution or a given data cloud. Recently, this method has been extended to the ordering of functions and trajectories. In our case, for a fixed intensity decay \(\varDelta I\), we build a set of convex hulls that enclose the sites of felt intensity \(I_s \ge I_0 -\varDelta I\), one for each macroseismic field of a set of earthquakes that are considered as similar from the attenuation point of view. By applying data depth functions to this functional dataset, it is possible to identify the most central curve, i.e., the attenuation pattern, and to consider other properties like variability, outlyingness, and possible clustering of such curves. Results are shown for earthquakes that occurred on the Central Po Plain in May 2012, and on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna since 1865.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change          下载免费PDF全文

Giulia Valerio  Marco Pilotti  Stefano Barontini  Barbara Leoni 《水文研究》2015,29(5):767-779

The study of the multiannual thermal dynamics of Lake Iseo, a deep lake in the Italian pre‐alpine area, is presented. Interflow was found to be the dominant river entrance mode, suggesting future susceptibility of the lake thermal structure to the overall effects of climate change expected in the upstream alpine watershed. A lake model employed the results of a long‐term hydrologic model to simulate the effects of a climate change scenario on the lake's thermal evolution for the period 2012–2050. The model predicts an overall average increase in the lake water temperature of 0.012 °C/year and a reinforced Schmidt thermal stability of the water column in the winter up to 800 J/m². Both these effects may further hinder the deep circulation process, which is vital for the oxygenation of deep water. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modeling the photosynthetically active radiation in South West Amazonia under all sky conditions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Leonardo J. G. Aguiar  Graciela R. Fischer  Richard J. Ladle  Ana C. M. Malhado  Flávio B. Justino  Renata G. Aguiar  José Maria N. da Costa 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(3-4):631-640

Accurate estimates of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) are critical for the development of realistic models of plant productivity. However, in many areas such as the vast Amazon region of South America, there have been few empirical studies of PAR. Here, we analyzed the relationship between PAR and broadband solar irradiance (R _s) and formulated models to estimate PAR in two experimental sites (pasture and forest) in the Brazilian Amazon. Three different models of increasing complexity were developed based on information from R _s (model 1), R _s and clearness index (k _t; model 2), and R _s, k _t, and water vapor pressure (model 3). Estimates of PAR were generated for each season and for the entire year. All models had very high determination coefficients and indices of agreement for both pasture and forest sites. This strongly supports the use of R _s and k _t to produce robust estimates of PAR. The results obtained by annual models were close than that found by seasonal models, demonstrating that a single annual model is able to estimate PAR, albeit with lower accuracy.  相似文献   

The Mediterranean Messinian salinity crisis: an Apennine foredeep perspective     

M. Roveri  M. A. Bassetti  F. Ricci Lucchi 《Sedimentary Geology》2001,140(3-4):201-214

Owing to its expanded stratigraphic sections, the Apennine thrust belt offers the opportunity to better understand the evaporitic and post-evaporitic Messinian events. A physical stratigraphic framework of Messinian deposits, based on facies analysis and basin-wide correlation of key surfaces and sedimentary cycles, is presented. It is shown that the Messinian Apennine foredeep had marginal basins with shallow-water primary evaporites and deeper basins where resedimented evaporites accumulated under relatively deep-water conditions. Like many other Mediterranean examples, primary shallow-water evaporites of Apenninic marginal basins show evidence for subaerial exposure and erosion. However, the development of such an erosional surface does not correspond to the deposition of primary evaporites in the deepest part of the basin(s); here, the unconformity can be traced towards the base of resedimented evaporites or to a level within them, implying that the deeper basins of the Apennine foredeep never underwent desiccation during the Messinian salinity crisis, but rather received the eroded marginal evaporites. This fact, usually overlooked, raises important questions about the deep desiccation model of the Mediterranean.  相似文献