Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Rex?L.?BaumEmail author  Jonathan?W.?Godt 《Landslides》2010,7(3):259-272

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.  相似文献   

Coupling Mesoscale Modelling with a Simple Urban Model: The Lisbon Case Study   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Efisio Solazzo  Silvana Di Sabatino  Noel Aquilina  Agnes Dudek  Rex Britter 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,137(3):441-457

The ongoing trend of urbanisation worldwide is leading to a growing requirement for detailed flow and transport parameterisations to be included within numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Such models often employ a simple roughness parameterisation for urban areas, which is not particularly accurate in predicting or assessing the flow and dispersion at street scale. Moreover, this kind of parameterisation offers too poor a representation of the mechanical and thermal forcing exerted by urban areas on the larger scale flow. At present, high computational costs and long simulation running times are among the constraints for the implementation of more detailed urban sub-models within NWP models. To overcome such limitations, a downscaling procedure from the atmospheric flow at the synoptic scale to the neighbourhood scale and below, is presented in this study. This is achieved by means of a simple urban model based on a parameterised formulation of the drag exerted by the building on the airflow. Application of the urban model for estimating spatially-averaged mean wind speed and the urban heat island over a selected neighbourhood area in Lisbon, Portugal, is presented. The results show the capability of the urban model to provide more accurate mean wind and temperature profiles. Moreover, the urban model has the advantage of being cost effective, as it requires small computational resources, and thus is suitable to be adopted in an operational context. The model is simple enough to be also used to assess how the resolving of urban surface processes may affect those at the larger scales.  相似文献   

Fractal plate reconstructions with spreading asymmetry     

Rex H. Pilger Jr. 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2012,33(2):149-168

Information theory and fractal analysis are the basis of a novel fitting criterion for simultaneous plate tectonic reconstructions of magnetic isochrons and fracture zone crossings of a range of ages, rather than a single isochron age. Accretionary boundaries are modeled as two-dimensional fractal structures including both contemporary spreading boundaries and reconstructed magnetic isochron and fracture zone crossings. Each model incorporates reconstruction parameters which describe the full accretionary history, including asymmetry. The reconstruction parameters are derived by spline interpolation in time of trial rotation pseudovectors, including variable asymmetric spreading between ridge segments. Iterative algorithms, without partial derivative constraints, converge on a nominally optimal model by minimizing the sum of two-dimensional fractal bins, over the range of bin-spacings, and produce thereby progressively refined fractal spectra. The new method can incorporate all isochron identifications from the selected plates and age range in the iterative calculation set. The solution set also provides continuous instantaneous rotation parameters, including asymmetries. An example data set illustrates the methodology and model results.  相似文献   

Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach     

Alison J. Heppenstall  Kirk Harland  Andrew N. Ross  Dan Olner 《Transactions in GIS》2013,17(5):661-682

Simulating the dynamics and processes within a spatially influenced retail market, such as the retail gasoline market, is a highly challenging research area. Current approaches are limited through their inability to model the impact of supplier or consumer behavior over both time and space. Agent‐based models (ABMs) provide an alternative approach that overcomes these problems. We demonstrate how knowledge of retail pricing is extended by using a ‘hybrid’ model approach: an agent model for retailers and a spatial interaction model for consumers. This allows the issue of spatial competition between individual retailers to be examined in a way only accessible to agent‐based models, allowing each model retailer autonomous control over optimizing their price. The hybrid model is shown to be successful at recreating spatial pricing dynamics at a national scale, simulating the effects of a rise in crude oil prices as well as accurately predicting which retailers were most susceptible to closure over a 10‐year period.  相似文献   

Combining a Detailed Building Energy Model with a Physically-Based Urban Canopy Model     

Bruno Bueno  Leslie Norford  Grégoire Pigeon  Rex Britter 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,140(3):471-489

A scheme that couples a detailed building energy model, EnergyPlus, and an urban canopy model, the Town Energy Balance (TEB), is presented. Both models are well accepted and evaluated within their individual scientific communities. The coupled scheme proposes a more realistic representation of buildings and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which allows a broader analysis of the two-way interactions between the energy performance of buildings and the urban climate around the buildings. The scheme can be used to evaluate the building energy models that are being developed within the urban climate community. In this study, the coupled scheme is evaluated using measurements conducted over the dense urban centre of Toulouse, France. The comparison includes electricity and natural gas energy consumption of buildings, building façade temperatures, and urban canyon air temperatures. The coupled scheme is then used to analyze the effect of different building and HVAC system configurations on building energy consumption, waste heat released from HVAC systems, and outdoor air temperatures for the case study of Toulouse. Three different energy efficiency strategies are analyzed: shading devices, economizers, and heat recovery.  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000181     

Ka-Kheng Tan  Rex B. Thorpe  Zhidan Zhao 《地学前缘(英文版)》2011,2(2):223-235

This study investigates the mechanism of formation of convection plumes of mushroom shape in sub-solidus mantle and their prediction.The seismic-tomographic images of columnar structures of several hundreds kilometers in diameter have been reported by several researchers,while the much cherished mushroom-shaped plume heads could only be found in computational geodynamics(CGD) models and simple small-scale laboratory analogue simulations.Our theory of transient instability shows that the formation of conv...  相似文献   

V. The Central Province     

Rex T. Prider 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(2):71-79

A re‐examination in the field of the lamproites of the Fitzroy Basin, Western Australia, shows that for the most part they occur in concentrically‐zoned plugs occupying diatremes. The zonal distribution of the lamproites in each plug is due to the different rates of cooling in different parts of the plug and the peculiar nature of the lamproite magma (high potash dominant over alumina, absence of soda, and abundance of titania, zirconia, baryta and fluorine) is ascribed to upward gas transfer of these constituents in the diatremes, the parental magma being of peridotitic character.  相似文献   

Basal‐topographic control of stationary ponds on a continuously moving landslide     

Jeffrey A. Coe  Jonathan P. McKenna  Jonathan W. Godt  Rex L. Baum 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(2):264-279

The Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado has been moving for at least the last few hundred years and has multiple ponds on its surface. We have studied eight ponds during 30 trips to the landslide between July 1998 and July 2007. During each trip, we have made observations on the variability in pond locations and water levels, taken ground‐based photographs to document pond water with respect to moving landslide material and vegetation, conducted Global Positioning System surveys of the elevations of water levels and mapped pond sediments on the landslide surface. Additionally, we have used stereo aerial photographs taken in October 1939, October 1940 and July 2000 to measure topographic profiles of the eight pond locations, as well as a longitudinal profile along the approximate centerline of the landslide, to examine topographic changes over a 60‐ to 61‐year period of time. Results from field observations, analyses of photographs, mapping and measurements indicate that all pond locations have remained spatially stationary for 60–300 years while landslide material moves through these locations. Water levels during the observation period were sensitive to changes in the local, spring‐fed, stream network, and to periodic filling of pond locations by sediment from floods, hyperconcentrated flows, mud flows and debris flows. For pond locations to remain stationary, the locations must mimic depressions along the basal surface of the landslide. The existence of such depressions indicates that the topography of the basal landslide surface is irregular. These results suggest that, for translational landslides that have moved distances larger than the dimensions of the largest basal topographic irregularities (about 200 m at Slumgullion), landslide surface morphology can be used as a guide to the morphology of the basal slip surface. Because basal slip surface morphology can affect landslide stability, kinematic models and stability analyses of translational landslides should attempt to incorporate irregular basal surface topography. Additional implications for moving landslides where basal topography controls surface morphology include the following: dateable sediments or organic material from basal layers of stationary ponds will yield ages that are younger than the date of landslide initiation, and it is probable that other landslide surface features such as faults, streams, springs and sinks are also controlled by basal topography. The longitudinal topographic profile indicated that the upper part of the Slumgullion landslide was depleted at a mean vertical lowering rate of 5.6 cm/yr between 1939 and 2000, while the toe advanced at an average rate of 1.5 m/yr during the same period. Therefore, during this 61‐year period, neither the depletion of material at the head of the landslide nor continued growth of the landslide toe has decreased the overall movement rate of the landslide. Continued depletion of the upper part of the landslide, and growth of the toe, should eventually result in stabilization of the landslide. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A major change in the phytoplankton of a Swedish sill fjord—A consequence of engineering work?     

H.L. Filipsson  G. Bjrk  R. Harland  M.R. McQuoid  K. Nordberg 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,63(4):551-560

A major phytoplankton change occurred during the late 1930s and early 1940s in Koljö Fjord, a sill fjord on the Swedish west coast. Dinoflagellate cyst concentrations increased tenfold over a short period of time, from hundreds of cysts per gram sediment to thousands; and the species composition of both dinoflagellate cysts and diatoms changed markedly. These changes took place during a period of extensive engineering work at the entrance to the fjord from the Skagerrak. At this time, the entire passage was straightened, a new channel was built in a previously shallow area, and the old connection was closed. This study investigates whether this engineering work could have sufficiently altered the surface-water circulation to bring about the change in the phytoplankton composition. Several mechanisms are explored by which the construction could have influenced the phytoplankton in the fjord. The primary mechanism is probably increased efficiency of tidal-generated surface-water exchange in the fjord, resulting in a larger transport of surface water from the Skagerrak and consequently a changed surface-water environment. This study highlights how engineering work can have a substantial impact on the local and regional marine environment, a factor that must not be overlooked in environmental planning.  相似文献   

Regional variability in dust‐on‐snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin          下载免费PDF全文

S. McKenzie Skiles  Thomas H. Painter  Jayne Belnap  Lacey Holland  Richard L. Reynolds  Harland L. Goldstein  John Lin 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5397-5413

Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust‐on‐snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan Mountains, CO, the first high‐altitude area of contact for predominantly southwesterly winds transporting dust from the southern Colorado Plateau. To capture variability in dust transport from the broader Colorado Plateau and dust deposition across a larger area of the Colorado River water sources, an additional study plot was established in 2009 on Grand Mesa, 150 km to the north of SBBSA in west central, CO. Here, we compare the 4‐year (2010–2013) dust source, deposition, and radiative forcing records at Grand Mesa Study Plot (GMSP) and Swamp Angel Study Plot (SASP), SBBSA's subalpine study plot. The study plots have similar site elevations/environments and differ mainly in the amount of dust deposited and ensuing impacts. At SASP, end of year dust concentrations ranged from 0.83 mg g^?1 to 4.80 mg g^?1, and daily mean spring dust radiative forcing ranged from 50–65 W m^?2, advancing melt by 24–49 days. At GMSP, which received 1.0 mg g^?1 less dust per season on average, spring radiative forcings of 32–50 W m^?2 advanced melt by 15–30 days. Remote sensing imagery showed that observed dust events were frequently associated with dust emission from the southern Colorado Plateau. Dust from these sources generally passed south of GMSP, and back trajectory footprints modelled for observed dust events were commonly more westerly and northerly for GMSP relative to SASP. These factors suggest that although the southern Colorado Plateau contains important dust sources, dust contributions from other dust sources contribute to dust loading in this region, and likely account for the majority of dust loading at GMSP. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献