A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Keywan Riahi  Richard Moss  Jae Edmonds  Allison Thomson  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Tom Kram  Frans Berkhout  Rob Swart  Anthony Janetos  Steven K. Rose  Nigel Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):21-35

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.  相似文献   

The WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey: small-scale clustering of Lyman-break galaxies at z < 1     

Chris Blake  Russell J. Jurek  Sarah Brough  Matthew Colless  Warrick Couch  Scott Croom  Tamara Davis  Michael J. Drinkwater  Duncan Forbes  Karl Glazebrook  Barry Madore  Chris Martin  Kevin Pimbblet  Gregory B. Poole  Michael Pracy  Rob Sharp  Todd Small  David Woods 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):240-254

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Quaternary uplift of northern England   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Rob Westaway   《Global and Planetary Change》2009,68(4):357

Upland flats, attributable to erosion, have long been recognised in the landscape of the Lake District region of NW England, at altitudes of up to ~ 800 m O.D. Extrapolation using uplift rates derived from dated Pleistocene sites (karstic caves and other features) in the adjacent Pennine uplands suggests that if this succession of flats formed close to sea-level they date from the Middle Pliocene onwards, indicating a subsequent time-averaged uplift rate of almost 0.3 mm a^− 1. Numerical modelling indicates that erosion of surrounding areas at a typical rate of 0.2 mm a^− 1 since 3.1 Ma could have caused this uplift, as well as constraining the local effective viscosity of the lower crust as ~ 4 × 10¹⁸ Pa s and the typical local Moho temperature as ~ 650 °C. It is thus feasible that most of the topography of northern England has developed since the Middle Pliocene, as a consequence of coupling between erosion and the resulting induced flow in the lower continental crust. The much faster vertical crustal motions indicated in this part of northern England, compared with SE England, are thus mainly a consequence of much greater mobility of the lower crust in the north, due to its younger thermal age and the heating effect of radioactive Palaeozoic granites. Uplift of this magnitude, which has previously gone unrecognised, may have affected post-Pliocene global climate.  相似文献   

Active crustal deformation beyond the SE margin of the Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from the evolution of fluvial systems     

Rob Westaway   《Global and Planetary Change》2009,68(4):395

An integrated explanation is proposed for the Late Cenozoic crustal deformation in Yunnan, SW China, using sedimentary and geomorphological evidence from the Yangtze and Red River systems. The observed fluvial incision indicates up to ~ 15 km of crustal thickening, associated with ~ 3 km of uplift, apparently triggered at ~ 8 Ma by monsoon-induced erosion drawing mobile lower crust from beneath Tibet to the northwest. The mobile lower-crustal layer beneath Yunnan was initially very thin, but a positive feedback loop developed, whereby each incremental influx of lower-crust widened and heated this layer, facilitating the next increment. At ~ 5 Ma, the shear tractions exerted on the brittle upper-crust by this flowing lower crust became sufficient to reactivate pre-existing lines of weakness, dragging blocks of the brittle layer southward and creating the region′s modern active fault systems. This region thus provides a dramatic example of crustal deformation induced by Late Cenozoic climate change, notwithstanding its location adjoining the India–Eurasia plate boundary.  相似文献   

Jaroslav Tyráček — A dedication     

Rob Westaway  David Bridgland  Rajiv Sinha  Tuncer Demir 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,68(4)

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Field reconnaissance of the Anti-Atlas coastline, Morocco: Fluvial and marine evidence for Late Cenozoic uplift   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Rob Westaway  Ali Aït Hssaine  Tuncer Demir  Anthony Beck   《Global and Planetary Change》2009,68(4):297

The available evidence regarding the disposition and chronology of Pliocene–Pleistocene fluvial terraces, coastal rock flats, raised beaches and lacustrine sediments adjoining the Anti-Atlas coastline of Morocco has been reviewed and supplemented by additional information from our own field reconnaissance. It is thus suggested that the study region has experienced uplift by  130 m since the Mid-Pliocene climatic optimum ( 3.1 Ma), by  90 m since the latest Pliocene ( 2 Ma), and by  45 m since the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution ( 0.9 Ma). Each of these phases of uplift correlates with a phase of global climate change known independently, and it is thus inferred that the observed uplift is being driven by climate through mechanisms such as erosional isostasy and the associated induced lower-crustal flow. Numerical modelling of the observed uplift history indicates that the mobile lower-crustal layer in the study region is  9 km thick, with a temperature at its base of  500 °C. The base of this mobile layer is inferred to be at  24 km depth, the deepest crust consisting of a layer of mafic underplating that does not flow under ambient conditions. The principal landform in the study region, the coastal rock platform at  60 m a.s.l., thus formed during a succession of interglacial marine highstands in the late Early Pleistocene when uplift rates were low. Although control on the ages of young sediments and landforms is currently extremely limited, being dependent on regional correlation schemes rather than on absolute dating, the study region fits the pattern, emerging worldwide, that climate change is driving the systematic growth of topographic relief evident during the Late Cenozoic.  相似文献   

A multiphysics and multiscale software environment for modeling astrophysical systems     

Simon Portegies Zwart  Steve McMillan  Stefan Harfst  Derek Groen  Michiko Fujii  Breanndán Ó Nualláin  Evert Glebbeek  Douglas Heggie  James Lombardi  Piet Hut  Vangelis Angelou  Sambaran Banerjee  Houria Belkus  Tassos Fragos  John Fregeau  Evghenii Gaburov  Rob Izzard  Mario Jurić  Stephen Justham  Andrea Sottoriva  Marcel Zemp 《New Astronomy》2009,14(4):369-378

We present MUSE, a software framework for combining existing computational tools for different astrophysical domains into a single multiphysics, multiscale application. MUSE facilitates the coupling of existing codes written in different languages by providing inter-language tools and by specifying an interface between each module and the framework that represents a balance between generality and computational efficiency. This approach allows scientists to use combinations of codes to solve highly coupled problems without the need to write new codes for other domains or significantly alter their existing codes. MUSE currently incorporates the domains of stellar dynamics, stellar evolution and stellar hydrodynamics for studying generalized stellar systems. We have now reached a “Noah’s Ark” milestone, with (at least) two available numerical solvers for each domain. MUSE can treat multiscale and multiphysics systems in which the time- and size-scales are well separated, like simulating the evolution of planetary systems, small stellar associations, dense stellar clusters, galaxies and galactic nuclei. In this paper we describe three examples calculated using MUSE: the merger of two galaxies, the merger of two evolving stars, and a hybrid N-body simulation. In addition, we demonstrate an implementation of MUSE on a distributed computer which may also include special-purpose hardware, such as GRAPEs or GPUs, to accelerate computations. The current MUSE code base is publicly available as open source at http://muse.li.  相似文献   

Limits to scale invariance in alluvial rivers     

Rob Ferguson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(1):173-187

Assumptions about fluvial processes and process–form relations are made in general models and in many site-specific applications. Many standard assumptions about reach-scale flow resistance, bed-material entrainment thresholds and transport rates, and downstream hydraulic geometry involve one or other of two types of scale invariance: a parameter (e.g. critical Shields number) has the same value in all rivers, or doubling one variable causes a fixed proportional change in another variable in all circumstances (e.g. power-law hydraulic geometry). However, rivers vary greatly in size, gradient, and bed material, and many geomorphologists regard particular types of river as distinctive. This review examines the tension between universal scaling assumptions and perceived distinctions between different types of river. It identifies limits to scale invariance and departures from simple scaling, and illustrates them using large data sets spanning a wide range of conditions. Scaling considerations and data analysis support the commonly made distinction between coarse-bed and fine-bed reaches, whose different transport regimes can be traced to the different settling-velocity scalings for coarse and fine grains. They also help identify two end-member sub-types: steep shallow coarse-bed ‘torrents’ with distinctive flow-resistance scaling and increased entrainment threshold, and very large, low-gradient ‘mega rivers’ with predominantly suspended load, subdued secondary circulation, and extensive backwater conditions. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

BIFoR FACE: Water–soil–vegetation–atmosphere data from a temperate deciduous forest catchment,including under elevated CO2     

A. Rob MacKenzie  Stefan Krause  Kris M. Hart  Richard M. Thomas  Phillip J. Blaen  R. Liz Hamilton  Giulio Curioni  Susan E. Quick  Angeliki Kourmouli  David M. Hannah  Sophie A. Comer-Warner  Nicolai Brekenfeld  Sami Ullah  Malcolm C. Press 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14096

The ecosystem services provided by forests modulate runoff generation processes, nutrient cycling and water and energy exchange between soils, vegetation and atmosphere. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ affects many linked aspects of forest and catchment function in ways we do not adequately understand. Global levels of atmospheric CO₂ will be around 40% higher in 2050 than current levels, yet estimates of how water and solute fluxes in forested catchments will respond to increased CO₂ are highly uncertain. The Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) facility of the University of Birmingham's Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) is the only FACE in mature deciduous forest. The site specializes in fundamental studies of the response of whole ecosystem patches of mature, deciduous, temperate woodland to elevated CO₂ (eCO₂). Here, we describe a dataset of hydrological parameters – seven weather parameters at each of three heights and four locations, shallow soil moisture and temperature, stream hydrology and CO₂ enrichment – retrieved at high frequency from the BIFoR FACE catchment.  相似文献   

Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions     

Barry Hankin  Trevor J. C. Page  Nick A. Chappell  Keith J. Beven  Paul J. Smith  Ann Kretzschmar  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2021,35(11):e14418

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.  相似文献