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The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   
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A regional atmospheric climate model is used toexamine the effect of changes in the roughnesslengths of momentum (z0m) and heat (z0h)on the structure of the lower atmosphere and on thesurface energy fluxes over Antarctica. Fourexperiments were carried out in which z0mand/or z0h were altered with respect to acontrol experiment. The changes consisted of (1) alowering of z0m from a field aggregated froma vegetation map with an orographic correction basedon the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts z0m field, to a constant value of10-3 m; and (2) a lowering of z0h from a valueequal to z0m to a constant value of 10-3 mor a value dependent on the wind speed via a surfacerenewal model. A reduction of z0m results in theexpected increase in near-surface wind speed. It alsoresults in an increase in the depth of the layer in whichsouth-easterly near-surface winds prevail, and in adecrease in the strength of the large-scale flow overthe continent, in particular in summer. In theescarpment region a decrease of z0m is foundto result in too high wind speeds. Surface temperatureson average decrease while atmospheric temperaturesincrease, resulting in an increase of near-surfacestatic stability. Changes in roughness lengths donot significantly change the temperature profiles.The surface fluxes, on average found reduced, aremodelled best by using the z0h based on thesurface renewal method.  相似文献   
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To provide quantitative information on site effects in the northern part of Belgium, forty-seven H/V microtremor measurements were performed with 5 second seismometers over an area of about 15.000 km2. Most of the results show a northward regular increase of the fundamental period in agreement with the augmentation of the Mesozoic and Cainozoic soft sedimentsthickness from a few meters 40 km south of Brussels to 900 m at the Netherlands-Belgium border. The measured resonance frequency values wereconsistent with theoretical computations performed at different sites onthe basis of existing information and shallow seismic experiments. At oneparticular site (Uccle) where borehole data were available, microtremor measurements using an array of four seismological stations with differentapertures allowed to obtain the low frequency part of the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve, extending the range covered by the analysis of surfacewaves artificially generated. The Vs profile derived from the surface waveinversion corroborates the 1 Hz natural frequency of the site. Comparison of these results with the macroseismic information concerning the MS = 5.0 1938 earthquake which occurred 50 km west of Brussels,confirmed the hypothesis that the geological structure of the Brabant massifis likely to control damage distribution during such an earthquake. Comparisonbetween the intensity map of the 1938 earthquake and the resonance period ofsediments obtained by our microtremor study shows a clear relation betweenthe two parameters. During the 1938 earthquake, site effects played a prominent role due to the dimension of the source whose corner frequency wasabout 1 Hz.  相似文献   
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Adsorption of trace amounts of radiocaesium on NH4-, K-, and Na-saturated Fithian illite and subsequent desorption by 1 M NH4 showed that a substantial amount of radiocaesium (44%, 46%, and 91% for NH4-, K-, and Na-illite, respectively) cannot be desorbed after only 5 min of adsorption. Our results suggest that this instantaneous fixation is caused by the collapse of the frayed edges of the clay mineral and the relatively high concentration of radiocaesium building up in solution in the batch desorption experiments. Consequently, commonly applied high-NH4 extractions underestimate truly exchangeable amounts of radiocaesium in soils and sediments containing illitic clay minerals. The rate of desorption of trace amounts of radiocaesium from the solids using high NH4 or Cs concentrations has a half-life of about 2 yr, reflecting radiocaesium desorption from (partially) collapsed interlayers. Extraction of radiocaesium from illite after 5 min of contact time with a Cs-selective adsorbent or a 1 × 10-6 M CsCl solution shows that 100% of the bound radiocaesium is readily available. The desorption rate in the presence of a Cs-selective adsorbent has a half-life of about 0.2 yr. Desorption of radiocaesium from illite using different ammonium concentrations shows that radiocaesium partitioning follows reversible ion-exchange theory if the NH4 concentration is below 1 × 10-4 M, and sufficient time (weeks) is allowed for the reaction to proceed. Thus, radiocaesium sorption reversibility in the natural environment is much higher than generally assumed, and equilibrium solid/liquid partitioning may be assumed for the long-term modelling of radiocaesium mobility in the natural environment. In the particular case of anoxic freshwater sediments with very high NH4 concentrations in the pore waters (up to several mmol.L-1), collapse of the frayed edges of illite may occur, influencing radiocaesium partitioning. If collapse occurs before radiocaesium adsorbs to illite, high caesium sorption reversibility as measured by high-NH4 extraction can be expected because further collapse of the frayed edges during the extraction procedure will be limited. This effect has indeed been observed earlier in the extraction of radiocaesium from anoxic freshwater sediments with high-NH4 solutions and was as yet unexplained.  相似文献   
108.
The structure of the mid-Norwegian volcanic Vøring margin at the onset of the Maastrichtian–Paleocene extension phase reflects the cumulative effect of earlier consecutive rifting events. Lateral structural differences present on the margin at that time are a consequence of migration of the location of maximum extension in time between Norway and Greenland. The most important imprints (Moho depth, thermal structure) of these events on the lithosphere are incorporated in a numerical simulation of the final extension phase. We focus on a possible mechanism of formation of the Vøring Marginal High and address the relationship between spatial and temporal evolution of crustal thinning and thickening, uplift of the surface and strength of the lithosphere.It is found that the Vøring Basin formed the strongest part of the margin which explains why the Maastrichtian–Paleocene rift axis was not located here but instead jumped westward with respect to the earlier rift axes locations. The modeling study predicts that local crustal thickening during extension can be expected when large lateral thermal variations are present in the lithosphere at the onset of extension. Negative buoyancy induced by lateral temperature differences increases downwelling adjacent to the rifting zone; convergence of material at the particular part of the margin is mainly taken up by the lower crust. The model shows that during the final phase of extension, the crust in the Vøring Marginal High area was thickened and the surface uplifted. It is likely that this dynamic process and the effects of magmatic intrusions both acted in concert to form the Marginal High.  相似文献   
109.
Along the upper reaches of the Gediz River in western Turkey, in the eastern part of the Aegean extensional province, the land surface has uplifted by 400 m since the Middle Pliocene. This uplift is revealed by progressive gorge incision, and its rate can be established because river terraces are capped by basalt flows that have been K–Ar and Ar–Ar dated. At present, the local uplift rate is 0.2 mm a−1. Uplift at this rate began around the start of the Middle Pleistocene, following a span of time when the uplift was much slower. This was itself preceded by an earlier uplift phase, apparently in the late Late Pliocene and early Early Pleistocene, when the uplift rate was comparable to the present. The resulting regional uplift history resembles what is observed in other regions and is analogously interpreted as the isostatic response to changing rates of surface processes linked to global environmental change. We suggest that this present phase of surface uplift, amounting so far to 150 m, is being caused by the nonsteady-state thermal and isostatic response of the crust to erosion, following an increase in erosion rates in the late Early Pleistocene, most likely as a result of the first large northern-hemisphere glaciation during oxygen isotope stage 22 at 870 ka. We suggest that the earlier uplift phase, responsible for the initial 250 m of uplift, resulted from a similar increase in erosion rates caused by the deterioration in local climate at 3.1 Ma. This uplift thus has no direct relationship to the crustal extension occurring in western Turkey, the rate and sense of which are thought not to have changed significantly on this time scale. Our results thus suggest that the present, often deeply incised, landscape of western Turkey has largely developed from the Middle Pleistocene onwards, for reasons not directly related to the active normal faulting that is also occurring. The local isostatic consequences of this active faulting are instead superimposed onto this “background” of regional surface uplift. Modelling of this surface uplift indicates that the effective viscosity of the lower continental crust beneath this part of Turkey is of the order of 1019 Pa s, similar to a recent estimate for beneath central Greece. The lower uplift rates observed in western Turkey, compared with central Greece, result from the longer typical distances of fluvial sediment transport, which cause weaker coupling by lower-crustal flow between offshore depocentres and eroding onshore regions that provide the sediment source.  相似文献   
110.
The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) was established in September 1998 as a service within the IAG to support programs in geodetic, geophysical, and lunar research activities and to provide data products to the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) in support of its prime objectives. Now in operation for 5 years, the ILRS develops: (1) the standards and specifications necessary for product consistency and (2) the priorities and tracking strategies required to maximize network efficiency. The service collects, merges, analyzes, archives and distributes satellite and lunar laser ranging data to satisfy a variety of scientific, engineering, and operational needs and encourages the application of new technologies to enhance the quality, quantity, and cost effectiveness of its data products. The ILRS works with: (1) the global network to improve station performance; (2) new satellite missions in the design and building of retroreflector targets to maximize data quality and quantity and (3) science programs to optimize scientific data yield. The ILRS Central Bureau maintains a comprehensive web site as the primary vehicle for the distribution of information within the ILRS community. The site, which can be accessed at: http://ilrs.gsfc.nasa.gov is also available at mirrored sites at the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Tokyo and the European Data Center (EDC) in Munich.During the last 2 years, the ILRS has addressed very important challenges: (1) data from the field stations are now submitted hourly and made available immediately through the data centers for access by the user community; (2) tracking on low satellites has been significantly improved through the sub-daily issue of predictions, drag functions, and the real-time exchange of time biases; (3) analysis products are now submitted in SINEX format for compatibility with the other space geodesy techniques; (4) the Analysis Working Group is heavily engaged in Pilot Projects as it works toward an ILRS “standard” global solution and (5) SLR has significantly increased its participation in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) activity, which is important to the success of IGGOS.  相似文献   
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