A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change     

Tobias Lung  Carlo Lavalle  Roland Hiederer  Alessandro Dosio  Laurens M. Bouwer 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):522-536

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU.  相似文献   

Warm frontal structure in association with a rapidly deepening extratropical cyclone     

David R. Hudak  Ronald E. Stewart  Alan D. Thomson  Roland List 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):103-132

Abstract

The detailed characteristics of a CASPII warm frontal passage are presented in this article. This storm, Intensive Operating Period (IOP) 13 (February 26–27, 1992), was observed in detail with an array of diverse instruments. It has the advantage over earlier freezing precipitation studies of having simultaneous, in situ and remote sensing measurements by aircraft and ground‐based Doppler radar.

The associated precipitation was in the form of banded structures parallel to the front. Within these bands were embedded precipitation cores, some parallel to the band, some perpendicular. The warm front itself was characterized by major perturbations in its kinematic and thermodynamic features. The cores oriented parallel to the front were the result of embedded convection generated, at least in part, by the irregularities in the frontal surface.

The cores oriented perpendicular to the front were closely associated with the 0°C isotherm on the underside of the frontal inversion. Precipitation phase changes played a significant role in the occurrence of wide near 0°C regions, both vertically and horizontally. These regions had a profound influence on the observed precipitation types and led to complex precipitation‐thermodynamic‐dynamic interactions. Instabilities produced by these interactions are seen in wave‐like features observed by the Doppler radar in these regions, both parallel and perpendicular to the frontal zone.  相似文献   

GIS-based assessment of landslide susceptibility on the base of the Weights-of-Evidence model   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Bettina Neuh?user  Bodo Damm  Birgit Terhorst 《Landslides》2012,9(4):511-528

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, “predicted” 40% of the landslides.  相似文献   

North Atlantic climate impact on early late‐glacial climate oscillations in the south‐eastern Alps inferred from a multi‐proxy lake sediment record     

Roland Schmidt  Kaarina Weckström  Stefan Lauterbach  Richard Tessadri  Kerstin Huber 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):40-50

High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ESR dating of palaeolithic calcite: A comparison between powder and monocrystal spectra with thermal annealing     

Yuji Yokoyama  Roland Bibron  Concle Leger 《Quaternary Science Reviews》1988,7(3-4)

Evolution of ESR spectra with thermal annealing at different temperatures is studied for a monocrystal calcite taken in the Orgnac III site. Up to 20 ESR lines are recognized from the angular dependence of these lines. These lines are compared with the ESR lines observed for powder and rotating monocrystal calcites.The h1 line (g = 2.0057) and h3 line (g = 2.0007) are isotropic or nearly isotropic and are due to the electrons trapped in the amorphous region formed by fission tracks or alpha-ray recoil nuclei. The h2 line (g = 2.0021) is a composite of several different lines.  相似文献   

Electron microscopic examination of hydrothermally treated bentonite clay     

Roland Pusch  Necip Gü  ven 《Engineering Geology》1990,28(3-4):303-314

Water-saturated Na bentonite clay with a bulk density of 2 g/cm³ was autoclaved at 150 and 200°C for up to 0.5 years and then left to rest under confined conditions at room temperature for several weeks. Transmission electron microscopy with elemental micro-analysis was applied to study hydrothermally induced changes, which were found to have the form of particle reorganization and, at 200°C, release and precipitation of silica. The precipitations are suspected to be hydrated amorphous silica gels. The microstructural alteration, which was more obvious at 200°C than at 150°C, involved regrouping of previously dispersed and expanded stacks of montmorillonite flakes to yield dense branches of interwoven, contracted stacks separated by large voids.  相似文献   

Reports     

E. Thorsen  K. Segadal  L. E. B. Stuhr  K. Troland  M. Gr?nning  et al. 《GeoJournal》1990,20(2):176-180

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Remote sensing of substances in water     

Heinz van der Piepen Dr.  Roland Doerffer Dr. 《GeoJournal》1991,24(1):27-48

Remote sensing of water colour and its application to the mapping of pigments, suspended matter and other substances by means of airborne and spaceborne sensors is discussed. After an introduction to the physical process involved, the methods for a quantitative interpretation especially of CZCS data are indicated. Applications towards the monitoring of coastal pollution, of algae blooms and of dynamic processes are shown by means of selected examples. Multispectral scanner and imaging spectrometer technologies are discussed with special reference to NASA's Earth Observation System and ESA's Earth Observation Programme.  相似文献   

Depositional mechanics of turbulent nuées ardentes (surges) from their grain sizes     

Fran?ois P Brissette  Jean Lajoie 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1991,53(1):60-66

The ability of turbulent nuées ardentes (surges) to transport coarse pyroclasts has been questioned on the basis that settling velocities of coarse fragments in the deposits are much too high for them to have been supported by turbulence in a dilute gas suspension. A computer model is used to evaluate the settling velocity of pyroclasts in suspensions of varying concentration and temperature. Since suspension of grains in low-concentration surges occurs if the shear velocity exceeds the settling velocity, the shear velocities related to the 16th and 84th percentiles, and the mean of the grain-size distribution are compared in surge deposits of the Vulsini, with the shear velocity necessary to move the coarsest grain on the bed surface (the Shields criterion). The results show that the settling velocities do not vary significantly in gaseous suspensions having volume concentrations lower than 15%, and that an increase in concentration to 25% is not sufficient to decrease the settling velocity of the coarser fraction, if it represents flow shear velocity. It is shown that the settling velocity of the mean grain size (M _z ) best depicts the shear velocity of a dilute turbulent suspension. Applying the results to the May 1902 paroxysmal nuées ardentes of Mount Pelée shows that the estimated mean velocities are well within the observed velocities, and sufficient to support all the clasts in dilute, turbulent suspensions.  相似文献   

Diatomeen-, pollen- und sedimentmikrostratigraphische Untersuchungen zur anthropogenen Beeinflussung des Höllerer Sees (Oberösterreich)     

Roland Schmidt  Heikki Simola 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1991,53(1):74-89

A profundal sediment core from Höllerer See frozen in situ was studied by means of diatom, microstratigraphical tape peel and pollen analyses. Varved sequences reflect eutrophication during mediaeval settlement and according to varve counts a recent eutrophic phase since the 1970's. Mesotrophication in-between coincides with regrowth of forests near the lake.

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