Impact of complexity on daily and multi-step forecasting of streamflow with chaotic,stochastic, and black-box models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hakan?TongalEmail author  Ronny?Berndtsson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):661-682

Despite significant research advances achieved during the last decades, seemingly inconsistent forecasting results related to stochastic, chaotic, and black-box approaches have been reported. Herein, we attempt to address the entropy/complexity resulting from hydrological and climatological conditions. Accordingly, mutual information function, correlation dimension, averaged false nearest neighbor with E1 and E2 quantities, and complexity analysis that uses sample entropy coupled with iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform were employed as nonlinear deterministic identification tools. We investigated forecasting of daily streamflow for three climatologically different Swedish rivers, Helge, Ljusnan, and Kalix Rivers using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR), k-nearest neighbor (k-nn), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The results suggest that the streamflow in these rivers during the 1957–2012 period exhibited dynamics from low to high complexity. Specifically, (1) lower complexity lead to higher predictability at all lead-times and the models’ worst performances were obtained for the most complex streamflow (Ljusnan River), (2) ANN was the best model for 1-day ahead forecasting independent of complexity, (3) SETAR was the best model for 7-day ahead forecasting by means of performance indices, especially for less complexity, (4) the largest error propagation was obtained with the k-nn and ANN and thus these models should be carefully used beyond 2-day forecasting, and (5) higher number input variables except for the dominant variables made insignificant impact on forecasting performances for ANN and k-nn models.  相似文献   

Rock physics model for seismic velocity & fluid substitution in sub-resolution interbedded sand–shale sequences     

Nishank Saxena  Ronny Hofmann  Seán Dolan  Rituparna Sarker  Chen Bao  Stephan Gelinsky 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(4):843-871

The measured geophysical response of sand – shale sequences is an average over multiple layers when the tool resolution (seismic or well log) is coarser than the scale of sand – shale mixing. Shale can be found within sand – shale sequences as laminations, dispersed in sand pores, as well as load bearing clasts. We present a rock physics framework to model seismic/sonic properties of sub-resolution interbedded shaly sands using the so-called solid and mineral substitution models. This modelling approach stays consistent with the conceptual model of the Thomas–Stieber approach for estimating volumetric properties of shaly sands; thus, this work connects established well log data-based petrophysical workflows with quantitative interpretation of seismic data for modelling hydrocarbon signature in sand – shale sequences. We present applications of the new model to infer thickness of sand – shale lamination (i.e., net to gross) and other volumetric properties using seismic data. Another application of the new approach is fluid substitution in sub-resolution interbedded sand–shale sequences that operate directly at the measurement scale without the need to downscale; such a procedure has many practical advantages over the approach of “first-downscale-and-then-upscale” as it is not very sensitive to errors in estimated sand fraction and end member sand/shale properties and remains stable at small sand/shale fractions.  相似文献   

Seismic on floating ice: data acquisition versus flexural wave noise     

Tor Arne Johansen  Bent Ole Ruud  Ronny Tømmerbakke  Kristian Jensen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(3):532-549

Geophysical surveying of the Arctic will become increasingly important in future prospecting and monitoring of the terrestrial and adjacent areas in this hemisphere. Seismic data acquired on floating ice are hampered with extensive noise due to ice vibrations related to highly dispersive ice flexural waves generated by the seismic source. Several experiments have been conducted on floating ice in van Mijenfjorden in Svalbard in the Norwegian Arctic to specifically analyse the extent of flexural waves recorded with various seismic receivers and sources deployed both on top of ice and in the water below. The data show that flexural waves are severely damped at 5 m or deeper below the ice and hydrophone data suffer less from these vibrations compared with data recorded on the ice. Aliasing of single receiver hydrophone data can to some extent be suppressed using an in-line line source of detonating cord. Experiments on ice on shallow water show prominent guided wave modes often referred to as Scholte waves propagating along the seabed. In this case, both flexural and Scholte waves interfere and make a complicated pattern of coherent noise. On shallow water, the positioning and type of the seismic source must be evaluated with respect to the coherent noise generated by these waves. Geophone strings of 25 m effectively suppress both flexural and Scholte waves due to their relative short wavelengths. An airgun generates relative more low-frequency energy than a surface source of detonating cord. Accordingly, seismic mapping of deep seismic horizons seem to be best achieved using geophone strings of such length and an airgun source. For shallow targets, the use of hydrophones in combination with detonating cord is an appropriate solution. Seismic surveying in the Arctic always have to follow environmental restrictions of not disturbing or harming wildlife and not causing permanent footprints into the vulnerable tundra, which implies that the choice of seismic acquisition strategy might occur as a trade-off between optimum data quality and environmental constraints.  相似文献