Violent strombolian and subplinian eruptions at Vesuvius during post-1631 activity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Simone Arrighi  Claudia Principe  Mauro Rosi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2001,63(2-3):126-150

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Textural heterogeneities in pumices from the climactic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 15 June 1991, and implications for magma ascent dynamics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Margherita Polacci  Paolo Papale  Mauro Rosi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2001,63(2-3):83-97

The climactic event of Mount Pinatubo represents one of the most thoroughly studied eruptions of the century and has provided important insights into the dynamics of explosive volcanism. We have performed detailed textural analyses of the white and gray pumices of the plinian and pyroclastic flow deposits, and found that differences in color and clast density reflect different crystal and vesicle amounts and size distributions. White pumice has higher vesicularity, deformed and highly coalesced vesicles with thin walls, euhedral phenocrysts and microlite-free groundmass. Gray pumice shows lower vesicularity, wider ranges in vesicle number density, limited coalescence, vesicles with thick walls that are less deformed, phenocrysts and microphenocrysts with abundant solution pitting, and groundmass containing ubiquitous microlites and crystal fragments. The presence of white and gray pumice varieties and the broad range in vesicularity and vesicle number density that characterizes both of them appear to record the complexities of conduit processes such as magma vesiculation and fragmentation and the development of conduit regions marked by different rheological behaviors. In particular, the results of this study suggest the likely importance of intense shear and viscous dissipation at the conduit walls, a mechanism that may be responsible for the creation and discharge of the gray pumice of this eruption along with the dominant white variety.  相似文献   

Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano,Italy     

Sebastien Biass  Costanza Bonadonna  Federico di Traglia  Marco Pistolesi  Mauro Rosi  Pierino Lestuzzi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(5):37

A first probabilistic scenario-based hazard assessment for tephra fallout is presented for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy) and subsequently used to assess the impact on the built environment. Eruption scenarios are based upon the stratigraphy produced by the last 1000 years of activity at Vulcano and include long–lasting Vulcanian and sub-Plinian eruptions. A new method is proposed to quantify the evolution through time of the hazard associated with pulsatory Vulcanian eruptions lasting from weeks to years, and the increase in hazard related to typical rainfall events around Sicily is also accounted for. The impact assessment on the roofs is performed by combining a field characterization of the buildings with the composite European vulnerability curves for typical roofing stocks. Results show that a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 2 is not likely to affect buildings, whereas a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 3 results in 90 % of the building stock having a ≥12 % probability of collapse. The hazard related to long-lasting Vulcanian eruptions evolves through time, and our analysis shows that the town of Il Piano, located downwind of the preferential wind patterns, is likely to reach critical tephra accumulations for roof collapse 5–9 months after the onset of the eruption. If no cleaning measures are taken, half of the building stock has a probability >20 % of suffering roof collapse.  相似文献   

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius     

A. Neri  W.P. Aspinall  R. Cioni  A. Bertagnini  P.J. Baxter  G. Zuccaro  D. Andronico  S. Barsotti  P.D. Cole  T. Esposti Ongaro  T.K. Hincks  G. Macedonio  P. Papale  M. Rosi  R. Santacroce  G. Woo 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.  相似文献   

Deep water gravity core from the Marsili Basin (Tyrrhenian Sea) records Pleistocenic–Holocenic explosive events and instability of the Aeolian Archipelago, (Italy)     

A. Di Roberto  M. Rosi  A. Bertagnini  M.P. Marani  F. Gamberi  A. Del Principe 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

A 4.8 m long gravity core was recovered on a relative topographic high in the northern part of the Marsili Basin (southern Tyrrhenian Sea) at a water depth of 3200 m. The core was taken in order to decipher the sedimentary record of the past volcanic events of the nearby Aeolian arc. A succession of thin (2 cm to 5 cm thick) fine-grained turbidites, mainly of volcaniclastic origin, topped by hemipelagic mud layers and a number of primary tephra layers were recovered by the core. The most prominent turbidite occurs in the lower part of the core at 385 cm. It consists of a 20 cm-thick, thinning-upward, pebble to sand-sized bed.  相似文献   

Predicting high-frequency variation in stream solute concentrations with water quality sensors and machine learning     

Mark B. Green  Linda H. Pardo  Scott W. Bailey  John L. Campbell  William H. McDowell  Emily S. Bernhardt  Emma J. Rosi 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e14000

Stream solute monitoring has produced many insights into ecosystem and Earth system functions. Although new sensors have provided novel information about the fine-scale temporal variation of some stream water solutes, we lack adequate sensor technology to gain the same insights for many other solutes. We used two machine learning algorithms – Support Vector Machine and Random Forest – to predict concentrations at 15-min resolution for 10 solutes, of which eight lack specific sensors. The algorithms were trained with data from intensive stream sensing and manual stream sampling (weekly) for four full years in a hydrologic reference stream within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The Random Forest algorithm was slightly better at predicting solute concentrations than the Support Vector Machine algorithm (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranged from 0.35 to 0.78 for Random Forest compared to 0.29 to 0.79 for Support Vector Machine). Solute predictions were most sensitive to the removal of fluorescent dissolved organic matter, pH and specific conductance as independent variables for both algorithms, and least sensitive to dissolved oxygen and turbidity. The predicted concentrations of calcium and monomeric aluminium were used to estimate catchment solute yield, which changed most dramatically for aluminium because it concentrates with stream discharge. These results show great promise for using a combined approach of stream sensing and intensive stream discrete sampling to build information about the high-frequency variation of solutes for which an appropriate sensor or proxy is not available.  相似文献   

Deciphering post-caldera volcanism: insight into the Vulcanello (Island of Vulcano,Southern Italy) eruptive activity based on geological and petrological constraints   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Raffaella Fusillo  Federico Di Traglia  Anna Gioncada  Marco Pistolesi  Paul J. Wallace  Mauro Rosi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(9):1-23

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Crystal fractionation,magma step ascent,and syn-eruptive mingling: the Averno 2 eruption (Phlegraean Fields,Italy)     

Céline Fourmentraux  Nicole Métrich  Antonella Bertagnini  Mauro Rosi 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(6):1121-1137

The 3.7 ka year-old Averno 2 eruption is one of the rare eruptions to have occurred in the northwest sector of the Phlegraean Fields caldera (PFc) over the past 5 ka. We focus here on the fallout deposits of the pyroclastic succession emplaced during this eruption. We present major and trace element data on the bulk pumices, along with major and volatile element data on clinopyroxene-hosted melt inclusions, in order to assess the conditions of storage, ascent, and eruption of the feeding trachytic magma. Crystal fractionation accounts for the evolution from trachyte to alkali-trachyte magmas; these were intimately mingled (at the micrometer scale) during the climactic phase of the eruption. The Averno 2 alkali trachyte represents one of the most evolved magmas erupted within the Phlegraean Fields area and belongs to the series of differentiated trachytic magmas erupted at different locations 5 ka ago. Melt inclusions record significant variations in H₂O (from 0.4 to 5 wt%), S (from 0.01 to 0.06 wt%), Cl (from 0.75 up to 1 wt%), and F (from 0.20 to >0.50 wt%) during both magma crystallization and degassing. Unlike the eruptions occurring in the central part of the PFc, deep-derived input(s) of gas and/or magma are not required to explain the composition of melt inclusions and the mineralogy of Averno 2 pumices. Compositional data on bulk pumices, glassy matrices, and melt inclusions suggest that the Averno 2 eruption mainly resulted from successive extrusions of independent magma batches probably emplaced at depths of 2–4 km along regional fractures bordering the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera.  相似文献   

Rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Ascanio Rosi  Tina Peternel  Mateja Jemec-Auflič  Marko Komac  Samuele Segoni  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1571-1577

In Slovenia, rainfall-induced landslides lead to considerable damages, even causing human losses. In order to reduce the impact of this kind of landslide, several researchers analyzed rainfall-induced landslides in this country, but to date, no rainfall thresholds have been developed for a landslide warning system at national scale. In this paper, the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges. To define the thresholds, an existing procedure characterized by a high degree of objectiveness has been used. This approach is based on a software that was developed for a test site with very different characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). At first, a single national threshold has been defined; subsequently, the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of the major river basins. The effectiveness of the thresholds has been verified by the use of several statistical parameters and it resulted in quite good performances, even if with some uncertainties, probably due to the quality of the available data. Besides the setting of a threshold system, usable for civil protection purposes at national scale, an additional outcome of this work was the possibility of applying, with good results, a methodology defined for another region, therefore testing its degree of exportability in different settings.  相似文献   

Ground‐based InSAR reveals conduit pressurization pulses at Stromboli volcano     

Federico Di Traglia  Chiara Del Ventisette  Mauro Rosi  Francesco Mugnai  Emanuele Intrieri  Sandro Moretti  Nicola Casagli 《地学学报》2013,25(3):192-198

At Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy), only few minor precursors (gas output) have been identified for ‘major’ Strombolian explosions. We use ground‐based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (GBInSAR) technology to monitor the displacement rate of the summit area of Stromboli. We analysed the 2009–2011 period. The analysis of the displacement rate has been performed by dividing the summit zone monitored by the GBInSAR into three regions, corresponding to the edge of the crater area (1 and 2), and to the slope of the NE crater (3). Pulses of rapid expansion of sector 3, of variable duration and amplitude, appear in coincidence with periods of intense activity that include lava flows and major explosions. We associate this expansion with the pressurization of the magma column that is recharged by deep‐derived gas, promoting the onset of ‘major explosion‐dominated’ activity.  相似文献