Variation in Coronal Activity from Solar Cycle 24 Minimum to Maximum Using Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of the Coronal Electron Density from STEREO/COR1     

Tongjiang Wang  Nelson L. Reginald  Joseph M. Davila  O. Chris St. Cyr  William T. Thompson 《Solar physics》2017,292(8):97

Three-dimensional electron density distributions in the solar corona are reconstructed for 100 Carrington rotations (CR 2054?–?2153) during 2007/03?–?2014/08 using the spherically symmetric method from polarized white-light observations with the inner coronagraph (COR1) onboard the twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). These three-dimensional electron density distributions are validated by comparison with similar density models derived using other methods such as tomography and a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model as well as using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)-C2. Uncertainties in the estimated total mass of the global corona are analyzed based on differences between the density distributions for COR1-A and -B. Long-term variations of coronal activity in terms of the global and hemispheric average electron densities (equivalent to the total coronal mass) reveal a hemispheric asymmetry during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, with the northern hemisphere leading the southern hemisphere by a phase shift of 7?–?9 months. Using 14 CR (\(\approx13\)-month) running averages, the amplitudes of the variation in average electron density between Cycle 24 maximum and Cycle 23/24 minimum (called the modulation factors) are found to be in the range of 1.6?–?4.3. These modulation factors are latitudinally dependent, being largest in polar regions and smallest in the equatorial region. These modulation factors also show a hemispheric asymmetry: they are somewhat larger in the southern hemisphere. The wavelet analysis shows that the short-term quasi-periodic oscillations during the rising and maximum phases of Cycle 24 have a dominant period of 7?–?8 months. In addition, it is found that the radial distribution of the mean electron density for streamers at Cycle 24 maximum is only slightly larger (by \(\approx30\%\)) than at cycle minimum.  相似文献   

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Paul Thompson  Yuzhi Cai  Dominic Reeve  Julian Stander 《Coastal Engineering》2009,56(10):1013-1021

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.  相似文献   

Patterns of carbon sequestration in forests of western ghats and study of applicability of remote sensing in generating carbon credits through afforestation/reforestation     

Manish P. Kale  Shirish A. Ravan  P. S. Roy  Sarnam Singh 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2009,37(3):457-471

Satellite remote sensing is a proven tool for mapping landuse patterns and estimating vegetation biomass/carbon. Present study aims at estimating the potential of forests of Radhanagari WLS (Western Ghats, India) to sequester the atmospheric carbon-di-oxide, using ground based observations coupled with satellite remote sensing. The study area was stratified for dominant forest types based on the structure and composition of vegetation and elevation variations. Permanent sample plots were laid down in these homogeneous vegetation strata (HVS) to make different observations during time 1 and time 2. Carbon sequestration by plantations was also studied and compared with natural forests. Species and area-specific biomass equations were used for estimating carbon pool and sequestration. Among natural forests ‘mixed moist deciduous’ forests exhibited highest sequestration rate (8%), whereas, plantation as obvious had a comparatively higher sequestration rate than natural forests (20.27%). Total carbon sequestration by forests of the Radhanagari WLS between 2004 and 2006 is 78742.09 tons. Eligible land for reforestation activity under clean development mechanism (CDM) of Kyoto Protocol was identified using satellite remote sensing using 1989 and 2005 datasets and it was observed that the potential land that can be used for reforestation activity is 10080 ha.  相似文献   

An approach to the modeling of viscoelastic damage. Application to the long‐term creep of gypsum rock materials     

B. Nedjar  R. Le Roy 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(9):1066-1078

A three‐dimensional phenomenological model is developed to describe the long‐term creep of gypsum rock materials. The approach is based on the framework of continuum damage mechanics where coupling with viscoelasticity is adopted. Specifically, a local damage model based on the concept of yield surface is proposed and deeply investigated. Among the many possibilities, we choose in this work its coupling with a generalized Kelvin–Voigt rheological model to formulate the whole behavior. Long‐term as well as short‐term relaxation processes can be integrated in the model by means of as many as necessary viscoelastic processes. The numerical discretization is described for an easy integration within a finite element procedure. Finally, a set of numerical simulations is given to show the possibilities of the presented model. It shows good agreement with some experimental results found in the literature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The evolution of conservation rules and norms in the Maine lobster industry     

James M. Acheson  Roy Gardner 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(9):524-534

Natural resources of all kinds have been overexploited by user groups who cannot or will not develop rules to constrain their own exploitive efforts. One notable exception is the Maine lobster industry, where an effective set of conservation laws has been developed due, in great part, to the strong support of the industry. In the early decades of the 20th century, however, the lobster industry was marked by widespread violations of the existing conservation laws and opposition to developing more. This article explores the way that the pirate ethic gave way to the conservation ethic in the 1930s. Our explorations in evolutionary game theory suggest that this change was produced by three factors: costs and benefits of defection from the conservation ethic; numbers of people accepting the conservation ethic quality rule; and events that shocked the system from one state to another. We argue that the shock to the system in the late 1920s and 1930s was caused by massive stock failure which changed the attitudes of many fishermen about the need for conservation. People began to report violations of the law, which made law enforcement more effective and quickly led to a cascade of fishermen abandoning the pirate ethic. In the late 1930s, increasing catches, in combination with a number of other social, technical, and economic factors continued the upward spiral.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina     

C.A. Lindemer  N.G. Plant  J.A. Puleo  D.M. Thompson  T.V. Wamsley 《Coastal Engineering》2010,57(11-12):985-995

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161 km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes).  相似文献   

Multivariate analysis of flood characteristics in a climate change context of the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir,Province of Québec,Canada     

M.‐A. Ben Aissia  F. Chebana  T. B. M. J. Ouarda  L. Roy  G. Desrochers  I. Chartier  É. Robichaud 《水文研究》2012,26(1):130-142

The analysis of the impact of climate change (CC) on flood peaks has been the subject of several studies. However, a flood is characterized not only by its peak, but also by other characteristics such as its volume and duration. Little effort has been directed towards the study of the impact of CC on these characteristics. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and compare flood characteristics in a CC context, in the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir (Province of Québec, Canada). Comparisons are based on observed flow data and simulated flow series obtained from hydrological models using meteorological data from a regional climate model for a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2041–2070). To this end, two hydrological models HSAMI and HYDROTEL are considered. Correlations, stationarity, change‐points, and the multivariate behaviour of flood series were studied. The results show that, at various levels, all flood characteristics could be affected by CC. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sea‐ice dynamics and CO2 sensitivity in a global climate model     

David Pollard  Starley L. Thompson 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):449-467

Abstract

Present‐day results and CO₂ sensitivity are described for two versions of a global climate model (genesis) with and without sea‐ice dynamics. Sea‐ice dynamics is modelled using the cavitating‐fluid method of Flato and Hibler (1990, 1992). The atmospheric general circulation model originated from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1, but is heavily modified to include new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary‐layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle and the semi‐Lagrangian transport of water vapour. The surface models include an explicit model of vegetation (similar to BATS and SiB), multilayer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a slab ocean mixed layer.

When sea‐ice dynamics is turned off, the CO₂‐induced warming increases drastically around ～60–80°S in winter and spring. This is due to the much greater (and unrealistic) compactness of the Antarctic ice cover without dynamics, which is reduced considerably when CO₂ is doubled and exposes more open ocean to the atmosphere. With dynamics, the winter ice is already quite dispersed for 1 × CO₂ so that its compactness does not decrease as much when CO₂ is doubled.  相似文献   

Fluid-absent (dehydration) melting of biotite in metapelites in the early stages of crustal anatexis   总被引：48，自引：1，他引：48  

Nicole Le Breton  Alan Bruce Thompson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1988,99(2):226-237

  相似文献   

A MEG study of the olivine and spinel forms of Mg2SiO4     

Mark D. Jackson  Roy G. Gordon 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1988,15(6):514-520

In this paper we present a theoretical investigation of the structures and relative stability of the olivine and spinel phases of Mg₂SiO₄. We use both a purely ionic model, based on the Modified Electron Gas (MEG) model of intermolecular forces, and a bond polarization model, developed for low pressure silica phases, to investigate the role of covalency in these compounds. The standard MEG ionic model gives adequate structural results for the two phases but incorrectly predicts the spinel phase to be more stable at zero pressure. This is mainly because the ionic modeling of Mg₂SiO₄ only accounts for 95 percent of the lattice energy. The remainder can be attributed to covalency and many-body effects. An extension of the MEG ionic model using “many-body” pair potentials corrects the phase stability error, but predicts structures which are in poorer agreement with experiment than the standard ionic approach. In addition, calculations using these many-body pair potentials can only account for 10 percent of the missing lattice energy. This model predicts an olivine-spinel phase transition of 8 GPa, below the experimental value of 20 GPa. Therefore, in order to understand more fully the stability of these structures we must consider polarization. A two-shell bond polarization model enhances the stability of both structures, with the olivine structure being stabilized more. This model predicts a phase transition at about 80 GPa, well above the observed value. Also, the olivine and spinel structures calculated with this approach are in poorer agreement with experiment than the ionic model. Therefore, based on our investigations, to properly model covalency in Mg₂SiO₄, a treatment more sophisticated than the two-shell model is needed.  相似文献