支持向量机与Newmark模型结合的地震滑坡易发性评估研究     

林齐根  刘燕仪  刘连友  王瑛 《地球信息科学学报》2017,19(12):1623-1633

Newmark位移模型是研究地震滑坡易发性的经典模型,机器学习方法支持向量机模型也越来越多的应用到滑坡易发性评估研究。本文将Newmark位移模型与支持向量机模型相结合,建立基于物理机理的地震滑坡易发性评估模型并应用于2008年汶川地震重灾区汶川县。从震后遥感影像目视解译出汶川县1900处地震诱发滑坡,并将其随机划分为70%的训练数据集和30%的验证数据集。选择地形起伏度、坡度、地形曲率、与构造断裂带距离、与水系距离、与道路距离6个因子与Newmark位移值共同作为地震滑坡易发性影响因素。利用ROC曲线和模型不确定性等指标对模型结果进行评估,并与二元统计模型频率比和多元统计模型Logistic回归的结果进行对比。结果表明：与频率比和Logistic回归模型相比,支持向量机模型的正确率最高,训练集和验证集ROC曲线下的面积分别为0.876和0.851。将模型应用于绘制汶川县地震滑坡易发性图,结果显示滑坡易发性图与实际的滑坡点位分布一致性较高,有80.4%的滑坡位于极高和高易发区。这说明支持向量机与Newmark位移方法结合建立的地震滑坡易发性评估模型有较高的预测价值,可以为滑坡风险评估和管理提供依据。  相似文献   

多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

隋琦  王瑛  李婷  刘庆爱  俞海洋 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(11):1571-1578

本研究将气象观测信息与网络信息相结合,提出了一种多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估方法：利用长时间气象观测数据分析雪灾的致灾强度时空特征,计算不同年遇型雪灾致灾强度;对门户网站、高速公路网站中节假日道路拥堵的新闻报道进行信息挖掘,获取高速公路暴露度;采用风险矩阵进行雪灾交通风险评估。将该方法应用于河北省,研究结果如下： ① 近5年来全省降雪有所下降,但长时间尺度来看,各地降雪呈波动变化;积雪深度高值区分布在张家口、承德、石家庄地区,但各年代间会有所变化;降雪次数高值区基本固定,在张家口康保、沽源、崇礼以及承德丰宁西北方向。② 暴露度级别高的路段是连接北京与上海、广州、哈尔滨等城市的高速公路,以及重要省市级联络线。③ 受致灾强度与暴露度的综合影响,河北省雪灾高风险路段集中在京港澳高速（石安G4）、京昆高速G5、京承高速G45、长深高速G25、张承高速G95等。这些路段必须做好雪灾风险防范措施。  相似文献   

Quantification of particle-induced inflammatory stress response: a novel approach for toxicity testing of earth materials     

Harrington AD  Tsirka SE  Schoonen MA 《Geochemical transactions》2012,13(1):4-10

Background

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are vital regulators of many cellular functions in the body. The intracellular ROS concentration is highly regulated by a balance between pro-oxidants and anti-oxidants. A chronic excess of pro-oxidants leads to elevated ROS concentrations and inflammation, possibly initiating or enhancing disease onset. Mineral-induced generation of ROS, the role of minerals in upregulating cellular ROS, and their role in the development of several occupational diseases are now widely recognized. However, there is no standard protocol to determine changes in ROS production in cells after exposure to mineral dust or earth materials in general. In this study, a new method for determining the degree of cellular toxicity (i.e., cytotoxicity) of particles is described that will help bridge the gap in knowledge.

Results

By measuring the production of ROS and the viability of cells, an inflammatory stress response (ISR) indicator is defined. This approach normalizes the ROS upregulation with respect to the number of viable cells at the time of measurement. We conducted experiments on a series of minerals and soils that represent materials that are inert (i.e., glass beads, anatase, and a soil with low trace element content), moderately reactive (i.e., soil with high trace element content), and highly reactive (i.e., pyrite). Inert materials generated the lowest ISR, averaging 350% compared to the control. Acid washed pyrite produced the highest ISR (1,100 fold higher than the control). The measurements conducted as a function of time showed a complex response. Most materials showed an increase in ISR with particle loading.

Conclusions

The amount of cellularly generated ROS and cell viability combined provide a better understanding of particle-induced oxidative stress. The results indicate that some earth materials may solicit an initial burst of ROS, followed by a second phase in which cell viability decreases and ROS production increases, leading to a high ISR value. Hence, measurements conducted over a range of particle loading combined with multiple data measurements up to 24 hours can provide new insights in the possible effect of exposure to earth materials on human health.  相似文献   

On-line access to ground water     

Ragone SE  Llamas MR 《Ground water》2006,44(4):500-500

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气候变化情景下泥石流危险性响应分析     

徐粒  李倩  王瑛  黄靖玲  许映军 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(4):415-423

通过中国1950—2010年降水日值0.5°×0.5°格点数据和CMIP5的6个气候模式数据,以2010年舟曲8·7特大山洪泥石流为例,估算此次灾害发生的降雨重现期,并估算未来同等重现期下的降雨量,基于HEC-HMS和FLO-2D模型模拟该降雨量下山洪泥石流堆积面积与泥沙冲出量,进而得到了气候变化背景下的泥石流危险性变化。结果表明：2010年舟曲8·7山洪泥石流灾害的降雨重现期为1500 a,未来相同重现期下降雨量为113.7 mm。设防水平不变条件下,舟曲县城泥石流堆积面积可达2010年灾害的173%,总泥沙量增加到148%,且泥石流堆积面积增加的区域主要位于2010年舟曲县城人口密集区。可见,灾后重建中舟曲县城一半以上居民的转移安置政策有利于弱化未来气候变化背景下泥石流危险性增加的不利影响,是一种有效的气候变化适应性举措。  相似文献   

Assessment and analysis of rockfall-caused tree injuries in a Turkish fir stand: A case study from Kastamonu-Turkey     

Abdurrahim AYDIN  Nesibe KSE  nal AKKEMK  Hüseyin YURTSEVEN 《山地科学学报》2012,9(2):137-146

Rockfalls can cause serious damage to people,property,facilities and transportation corridors.Furthermore,rockfalls are major hazards in mountain areas with negative impacts on individual trees and forested ecosystems.We conducted a study of rockfall events on 117 mapped(91% of total trees in the stand with1.3 m in height and5 cm diameter at breast height)Turkish fir trees(Abies bornmuelleriana Mattf.)in a stand within the Kayaarkasi-Topular Village,Inebolu district, Kastamonu province of Turkey.The study site of 0.35 Ha is located on the transition zone of frequently passing rockfall fragments(～40 cm in diameter) generally causing healable injuries.Parameters of trees and injuries were recorded and analysed as to injury number,height and size.Bivariate correlation analysis were used to investigate the relationships between:a)diameter at breast height and number of injuries per tree,b)diameter at breast height and total injury size,c)the number of injuries and total injury size and d)the number of injuries per tree and distance from the source of the rockfall area.Results indicate that the average height of injury,average number of injuries and average injury area to be 81.3 cm(STDEV:49.8),7.46(STDEV:4.4)and 628.6 cm2 (STDEV:678.2),respectively.In total 84% of all injuries were recorded within 160°sector at the upslope side of trees and callus tissue that had closed wounds was observed in 79.1% of all injuries. Furthermore 14.5% of injured trees had callus tissue in the process of closing wounds while 6.4% of injuries had not formed any callus tissue.The most common injury types were bark and wood injuries. Bivariate correlation analysis indicated strong relationships between diameter at breast height and the number of injuries(rs=0.524),injury number and total injury area(rs=0.653)and distance from rockfall area and injury numbers relations(rs=-0.518).A weaker relationship was found between diameter at breast height and total injury area(rs=0.363).These results indicate that bigger trees are more prone to rockfall injuries.As expected,trees further from the rockfall area seem to be less prone to rockfall injuries.From our results,it can be inferred that the protection of people and property can be increased through the maintanance of forest in areas immediately below areas prone to rockfall.This stand is still managed in selective forest management system.In order to protect the settlement at the deposition zone it has to manage for protective goals with uneven-aged and multilayered stand structure.  相似文献   

GPS定位与地形图的跟踪测绘分析     

王瑛 《华北国土资源》2013,(1):82-83

GPS全球定位系统用于全天候全方位的实时监控,其最大的优点就是速度快、精度高、成像清晰,特别是在地形的实时测量和精确分析方面得天独厚,其核心技术就是定位与移动跟踪测绘,要求稳定性与即时性.实际的测量当中,出现了不少错误,究其原因,一是操作技术的失误,二是细节的遗漏,三是GPS数据积累与判断的错误,而这些问题也是我们工作中不容易察觉到的,本文将针对问题和后果,找出问题所在.  相似文献   

改进的武汉中暑气象模型及中暑指数等级标准研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈正洪  史瑞琴  李松汉  王瑛  卢明 《气象》2008,34(8):82-86

为了更好开展高温中暑气象预报服务和气候评价工作,以武汉市2003-2005年高温期间逐日中暑人数与当天、前期共33个气象因子为基础资料,通过相关普查寻找关键气象因子,通过逐步回归方法建立了改进的中暑气象模型,修订了1990年代研制的中暑指数5级划分标准,新提出了中暑天数的推算方法,并进行了回代检验和2006-2007年试报检验.结果表明:中暑人数与当日各项气温、气压、日照时数为正相关,与总云量、相对湿度为负相关,其中气温最为关键,考虑前期气温累积效应后相关系数有所提高;日最高气温≥36℃的累积高温为首选因子,比1990年代的临界指标上升1℃;建立了3套预报(评估)模型,并推荐使用以日最高气温≥36℃的累积高温、日平均气温为因子的模型;回代试验、试验报检验表明,改进的模型、等级划分标准科学适用.  相似文献   

微细金矿床周围土壤气体的分布     

Kesl.  SE 熊先祥 《国外铀金地质》1991,(3):78-84

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透地合成脉冲雷达：动态范围和工作方法     

Hamr.  SE 孙鸿雁 《物探化探译丛》1996,(1):15-21

刻划透地雷达（ＧＰＲ）系统的主要参数是它的动态范围，动态范围表征了系统的穿透潜力，本文的目的是给出计算和比较雷达系统的动态范围的方法，这一点是利用与匹配滤波接收机原理有关的雷达方程来实现的，将脉冲雷达动态范围与合成脉冲雷达的动态范围进行比较，结论是由作者所在的机构开的合成脉冲雷达系统的动态范围比商业现成的ＧＰＲ系统高４０ｄＢ，合成脉冲ＧＰＲ系统的潜在动态范围大于２００ｄＢ。  相似文献