Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)     

Lorenzo Sangelantoni  Eleonora Gioia  Fausto Marincioni 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):849-884

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).  相似文献   

Eco-hydrological role of deep aquifers in the Salado sedimentary basin in the Province of Buenos Aires,Argentina     

Eleonora S. Carol  Eduardo Emilio Kruse  Jorge L. Pousa 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,60(4):749-756

Although not well known, the eco-hydrological functions of deep aquifers (those having no contact with surface hydrological events) play an important role in the hydrological regime because they can affect the type of habitats, the availability of water and nutrients and the salinity of the medium, among other environmental features. This work aims at characterizing the deep Tertiary hydrogeological units of the Salado sedimentary basin in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina, at a regional scale, and to determine their environmental importance in the hydrological cycle. The geological characterization of the study area is based on the drilling profiles from oil exploration wells bored by different oil companies between 1948 and 1994, and also from the existing literature. The conclusion is that water exchange between quaternary surface aquifers in contact with atmospheric events and deep tertiary aquifers is one of the main processes that keep the hydrologic balance of the region. Not only is this crucial for the conservation of the numerous and well-developed ecosystems in the basin wetlands, but also significant for the agricultural and cattle-raising activities of the region.  相似文献   

Understanding the collapse–eruption link at Stromboli,Italy: A microanalytical study on the products of the recent Secche di Lazzaro phreatomagmatic activity     

Chiara M. Petrone  Eleonora Braschi  Lorella Francalanci 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009

The Secche di Lazzaro (SDL) phreatomagmatic activity, with the associated Neostromboli sector collapse, represents the most powerful activity of the last 6 ky at Stromboli. As revealed by its present-day activity, Stromboli is one of the most eruptive volcanoes in Italy, and flank instability, along its NW flank, is a common process. Volcano instability is often dramatised by explosive eruptions, thus it is of crucial importance to understand the linking between volcano collapse and the plumbing system itself. The possible role of pre-eruptive magmatic processes as triggers of explosive eruptions can be mainly preserved by minerals and revealed by petrochemical studies. We studied the juvenile components (scoria and pumice) of the pyroclastic deposits from the SDL phreatomagmatic activity with the aim to understand the eruption–collapse link.  相似文献   

Inverse differentiation pathway by multiple mafic magma refilling in the last magmatic activity of Nisyros Volcano, Greece     

Eleonora Braschi  Lorella Francalanci  Georges E. Vougioukalakis 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(5):1083-1100

Based on detailed field, petrographic, chemical, and isotopic data, this paper shows that the youngest magmas of the active Nisyros volcano (South Aegean Arc, Greece) are an example of transition from rhyolitic to less evolved magmas by multiple refilling with mafic melts, triggering complex magma interaction processes. The final magmatic activity of Nisyros was characterized by sub-Plinian caldera-forming eruption (40?ka), emplacing the Upper Pumice (UP) rhyolitic deposits, followed by the extrusion of rhyodacitic post-caldera domes (about 31–10?ka). The latter are rich in magmatic enclaves with textural and compositional (basaltic–andesite to andesite) characteristics that reveal they are quenched portions of mafic magmas included in a cooler more evolved melt. Dome-lavas have different chemical, isotopic, and mineralogical characteristics from the enclaves. The latter have lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values than dome-lavas. Silica contents and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values decrease with time among dome-lavas and enclaves. Micro-scale mingling processes caused by enclave crumbling and by widespread mineral exchanges increase from the oldest to the youngest domes, together with enclave content. We demonstrate that the dome-lavas are multi-component magmas formed by progressive mingling/mixing processes between a rhyolitic component (post-UP) and the enclave-forming mafic magmas refilling the felsic reservoir (from 15?wt.% to 40?wt.% of mafic component with time). We recognize that only the more evolved enclave magmas contribute to this process, in which recycling of cumulate plagioclase crystals is also involved. The post-UP end-member derives by fractional crystallization from the magmas leftover after the previous UP eruptions. The enclave magma differentiation develops mainly by fractional crystallization associated with multiple mixing with mafic melts changing their composition with time. A time-related picture of the relationships between dome-lavas and relative enclaves is proposed, suggesting a delay between a mafic magma input and the relative dome outpouring. We also infer that the magma viscosity reduction by re-heating allows dome extrusion without explosive activity.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Yacov y. Haimes  Eleonora Sabadell 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(4):253-254

  相似文献