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21.
Laboratory experiments on simulated faults in rocks clearly show the temperature dependence of dynamic rock friction. Since rocks surrounding faults are permeable, we have developed a numerical method to describe the thermo-mechanical evolution of the pre-seismic sliding phase which takes into account both the rate-, state- and temperature-dependent friction law and the heat advection term in the energy equation. We consider a laminar fluid motion perpendicular to a vertical fault plane and assume that fluids move away from the fault plane. A semi-analytical temperature solution which accounts for the variability of slip velocity and stress on the fault has been found. This solution has been generalized to the case of a time varying fluid velocity and then was used to include the thermal pressurization effect. After discretizing the temperature solution, the evolution of the system is obtained by the solution of a system of first order differential equations which allows us to determine the evolution of slip, slip rate, friction coefficient, effective normal stress, temperature and fluid velocity. The numerical solutions are found using a Runge-Kutta method with an adaptative stepsize control in time. When the thermal pressurization effects can be neglected, the heat advection effect gives rise to a delay, with respect to the purely conductive case, of the earthquake occurrence time. This delay increases with increasing permeability H of the system. When the thermal pressurization effects are taken into account the situation is opposite, i.e. the onset of instability tends to precede that of the purely conductive case. The advance in the time of occurrence of instability increases with increasing coefficient of thermal pressurization. In the small permeability range (H  10?18 m2), the seismic moment and nucleation length of the pre-seismic phase are significantly smaller than those predicted by the purely conductive model.  相似文献   
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The seismic energy attenuation in the frequency range of 1–18 Hz was studied in the two tectonically active zones of Irno Valley (Southern Italy) and Granada Basin (South-East Spain). Data were recorded by short period vertical components seismographs for low-magnitude local earthquakes. The method of coda waves, assuming singleS toS scattering approximation, was used to calculate the quality factorQ from the two data set. Results show a quality factor increasing with frequency, following the empirical lawQ=Q o f n .Q o andn are lower for the Irno Valley than for Granada. This result is interpreted in terms of different scattering environments present in the two investigated areas.  相似文献   
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Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.  相似文献   
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For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT

Data on global population distribution are a strategic resource currently in high demand in an age of new Development Agendas that call for universal inclusiveness of people. However, quality, detail, and age of census data varies significantly by country and suffers from shortcomings that propagate to derived population grids and their applications. In this work, the improved capabilities of recent remote sensing-derived global settlement data to detect and mitigate major discrepancies with census data is explored. Open layers mapping built-up presence were used to revise census units deemed as ‘unpopulated’ and to harmonize population distribution along coastlines. Automated procedures to detect and mitigate these anomalies, while minimizing changes to census geometry, preserving the regional distribution of population, and the overall counts were developed, tested, and applied. The two procedures employed for the detection of deficiencies in global census data obtained high rates of true positives, after verification and validation. Results also show that the targeted anomalies were significantly mitigated and are encouraging for further uses of free and open geospatial data derived from remote sensing in complementing and improving conventional sources of fundamental population statistics.  相似文献   
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New field, petrological, geochemical, and geochronological data (U–Pb and Sm–Nd) for Ordovician rock units in the southeastern Puna, NW Argentina, indicate two lithostratigraphic units at the eastern–northeastern border of salar Centenario: (1) a bimodal volcanosedimentary sequence affected by low- to medium-grade metamorphism, comprising metasediments associated with basic and felsic metavolcanic rocks, dated 485 ± 5 Ma, and (2) a plutonic unit composed of syenogranites to quartz-rich leucogranites with U–Pb zircon ages between 462 ± 7 and 475 ± 5 Ma. Felsic metavolcanic and plutonic rocks are peraluminous and show similar geochemical differentiation trends. They also have similar Sm–Nd isotopic compositions (TDM model ages of 1.54–1.78 Ga; εNd(T) values ranging from −3.2 to −7.5) that suggest a common origin and derivation of the original magmas from older (Meso-Paleoproterozoic?) continental crust. Mafic rocks show εNd(T) ranging from +2.3 to +2.5, indicating a depleted mantle source. The data presented here, combined with those in the literature, suggest Ordovician magmatism mainly recycles preexisting crust with minor additions of juvenile mantle-derived material.  相似文献   
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We present results from a geophysical prospection at a historical Jesuit Mission, located in San Ignacio (Misiones-Argentina), declared World Monument some years ago. We studied different sectors looking for buried structures; the total area under study covered 36 ha. In this work we will show the results obtained in a sector that at the time of the prospection was at imminent risk of being damaged by a wrong management of the historical resource. To optimize the data acquisition and the preliminary in-situ analysis of the results, we performed an electromagnetic survey using a multifrequency electromagnetic induction device (GEM-2) to have a first insight of the near surface electrical distribution. From 2D and 3D visualization of data, different targets were identified as possible historical structures. Around these anomalous zones, we performed different dipole–dipole profiles, forming high resolution grids for later 3D inversions. Further inversions of the electric and electromagnetic data completed the characterization of the anomalies. One of the main results of this work is that the 3D electric image obtained from 1D inversion of electromagnetic data coincides with the 3D images obtained from resistivity inversion, but at a much less time consuming cost.  相似文献   
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