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The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.  相似文献   
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Eocene to Early Oligocene syn-rift deposits of the southern Upper Rhine Graben (URG) accumulated in restricted environments. Sedimentation was controlled by local clastic supply from the graben flanks, as well as by strong intra-basinal variations in accommodation space due to differential tectonic subsidence, that in turn led to pronounced lateral variations in depositional environment. Three large-scale cycles of intensified evaporite sedimentation were interrupted by temporary changes towards brackish or freshwater conditions. They form three major base level cycles that can be traced throughout the basin, each of them representing a stratigraphic sub-unit. A relatively constant amount of horizontal extension (ΔL) in the range of 4–5 km has been estimated for the URG from numerous cross-sections. The width of the rift (L f ), however, varies between 35 and more than 60 km, resulting in a variable crustal stretching factor between the bounding masterfaults. Apart from block tilting, tectonic subsidence was, therefore, largely controlled by changes in the initial rift width (L 0). The along-strike variations of the graben width are responsible for the development of a deep, trough-like evaporite basin (Potash Basin) in the narrowest part of the southern URG, adjacent to shallow areas in the wider parts of the rift such as the Colmar Swell in the north and the Rhine Bresse Transfer Zone that delimits the URG to the south. Under a constant amount of extension, the along-strike variation in rift width is the principal factor controlling depo-centre development in extensional basins.  相似文献   
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Broad-band P - and S -waves from earthquakes in South America recorded at Californian network stations are analysed to image lateral variations of the D"-discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate. We apply two array processing methods to the data set: a simplified migration method to the P -wave data set and a double-array method to both the P - and S -wave data sets, allowing us to compare results from the two methods. The double-array method images a dipping reflector at a depth range from 2650 to 2700 km in the southern part of the study area. We observe a step-like topography of 100 km to a shallower reflector at about 2600 km depth to the north, as well as evidence for a second (deeper) reflector at a depth range from 2700 to 2750 km in the north. Results from the simplified migration agree well with those from the double-array method, similarly locating a large step in reflector depth in a similar location (about 2650 km depth in the south and about 2550 km in the north) as well as the additional deeper reflector at the depth of about 2750 km in the north. Waveform modelling of the reflected waves from both methods suggests a positive velocity contrast for S waves, but a negative velocity contrast for P waves for the upper reflector in agreement with predictions from mineral physical calculations for a post-perovskite phase transition. The data also show some evidence for the existence of another deeper reflector that could indicate a double intersection of the geotherm with the post-perovskite stability field, that is, the back-transformation of post-perovskite to perovskite close to the core–mantle boundary.  相似文献   
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In late December 2005 the GIOVE-A test satellite was launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) to secure the frequencies for the Galileo system and to provide a platform for testing the new navigation signals. We performed an initial assessment of these signals using the 30 m deep space antenna of the DLR ground station in Weilheim (Germany). The antenna gain raised the signals above the noise level, thus allowing a detailed analysis even without knowledge of the ranging codes. The present paper covers the analysis of the L1/E1 signals, which includes a discussion of the spectrum, the time domain signal and a decoding of the spreading codes for the Open Service.  相似文献   
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A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km2; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R2 = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m3 s?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe3+Ge2O6, monoclinic s.g. P21/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) Å, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) Å3, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P21/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T tr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below T tr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > T tr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the $(\bar{1}\,0\,1) A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe3+Ge2O6, monoclinic s.g. P21/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) ?, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) ?3, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P21/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T tr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below T tr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > T tr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the ([`1] 0 1)(\bar{1}\,0\,1) plane, mostly along [0 1 0], and pure shear in the (0 1 0) plane due to the decrease of β. From comparison with silicate analogues, the germanate clinopyroxenes are more expansible, while the P21/c expands more than the C2/c phase. The evolution of Q 2 (calculated as the normalized intensity of b-type reflections) with T in the framework of the Landau theory has been done using a standard expression for a first order phase transition. We observe a jump of Q 02 = 0.538(2) at T tr, with T c of 481(7) K, b/a = −2,290 K, and c/a = 3,192 K, and thus far from being tri-critical point. A closely related composition (LiFe3+Si2O6) shows an equivalent phase transition at 228 K, which is very close to the tri-critical point and 561 K cooler. This result indicates that a change in the composition of tetrahedral sites can have dramatic effects on the P21/c ↔ C2/c displacive phase transition in clinopyroxenes. The major changes observed in the evolution of the crystal structure with T are observed in the M2 polyhedron, with a volume decrease by ca. 13.3%, compared to ca. 1.3% observed in the M1 polyhedron. The tetrahedra behave as rigid units with neither a significant change of volume at T > T tr (<1‰), nor a change of tilting of the basal plane. No change in coordination is observed at T > T tr in the M2 polyhedron, which remains sixfold coordinated although a strong deformation of this polyhedron is observed. This deformation is related to a strong change by 51.4° at T tr of the kinking angle (O3–O3–O3 angle) of the B-chain of tetrahedra, which switches from O-rotated to S-rotated [from 143.3(5)° to 194.7(6)°]. The A-chain is S-rotated at T < T tr [206.8(5)° at 703 K] and extends by 12° at the transition.  相似文献   
20.
Marine habitats worldwide are increasingly pressurized by climate change, especially along the Antarctic Peninsula. Well-studied areas in front of rapidly retreating tidewater glaciers like Potter Cove are representative for similar coastal environments and, therefore, shed light on habitat formation and development on not only a local but also regional scale. The objective of this study was to provide insights into habitat distribution in Potter Cove, King George Island, Antarctica, and to evaluate the associated environmental processes. Furthermore, an assessment concerning the future development of the habitats is provided. To describe the seafloor habitats in Potter Cove, an acoustic seabed discrimination system (RoxAnn) was used in combination with underwater video images and sediment samples. Due to the absence of wave and current measurements in the study area, bed shear stress estimates served to delineate zones prone to sediment erosion. On the basis of the investigations, two habitat classes were identified in Potter Cove, namely soft-sediment and stone habitats that, besides influences from sediment supply and coastal morphology, are controlled by sediment erosion. A future expansion of the stone habitat is predicted if recent environmental change trends continue. Possible implications for the Potter Cove environment, and other coastal ecosystems under similar pressure, include changes in biomass and species composition.  相似文献   
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