Developing configuration of WRF model for long-term high-resolution wind wave hindcast over the North Atlantic with WAVEWATCH III     

Margarita Markina  Alexander Gavrikov  Sergey Gulev  Bernard Barnier 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(11):1593-1604

The spatial resolution of wind forcing fields is critical for modeling ocean surface waves. We analyze here the performance of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting) run with a 14-km resolution for hindcasting wind waves in the North Atlantic. The regional atmospheric model was run in the domain from 20° N to 70° N in the North Atlantic and was forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions in a spectral nudging mode. Here, we present the analysis of the impact of spectral nudging formulation (cutoff wavelengths and depth through which full weighting from reanalysis data is applied) onto the performance of the modeled 10-m wind speed and wind wave fields for 1 year (2010). For modeling waves, we use the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The sensitivity of the atmospheric and wave models to the spectral nudging formulation is investigated via the comparison with reanalysis and observational data. The results reveal strong and persistent agreement with reanalysis data during all seasons within the year with well-simulated annual cycle and regional patterns independently of the nudging parameters that were tested. Thus, the proposed formulation of the nudging provides a reliable framework for future long-term experiments aiming at hindcasting climate variability in the North Atlantic wave field. At the same time, dynamical downscaling allows for simulation of higher waves in coastal regions, specifically near the Greenland east coast likely due to a better representation of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in this area.  相似文献   

Estimate of the Upper Limit on Hot Plasma Differential Emission Measure (DEM) in Non-Flaring Active Regions and Nanoflare Frequency Based on the Mg <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">xii</Emphasis> Spectroheliograph Data from CORONAS-F/SPIRIT     

Anton Reva  Artem Ulyanov  Alexey Kirichenko  Sergey Bogachev  Sergey Kuzin 《Solar physics》2018,293(10):140

Nanoflare-heating theory predicts steady hot-plasma emission in non-flaring active regions. It is hard to find this emission with conventional non-monochromatic imagers (such as the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly or the X-Ray Telescope), because their images contain a cool-temperature background. In this work, we search for hot plasma in non-flaring active regions using the Mg?xii spectroheliograph onboard the Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity on the Sun (CORONAS)-F/SPectroheliographIc X-ray Imaging Telescope (SPIRIT). This instrument acquired monochromatic images of the solar corona in the Mg?xii 8.42 Å line, which emits only at temperatures higher than 4 MK. The Mg?xii images only contain the signal from hot plasma, without any low-temperature background. We studied the hot plasma in active regions using SPIRIT data from 18?–?28 February 2002. During this period, the Mg?xii spectroheliograph worked with a 105-second cadence almost without data gaps. Hot plasma was observed only in the flaring active regions. We did not observe any hot plasma in non-flaring active regions. The hot-plasma column emission measure in the non-flaring active region is not expected to exceed \(3 \times10^{24}\) cm^?5. The hot differential emission measure is lower than 0.01% of the DEM of the main temperature component. The absence of Mg?xii emission in the non-flaring active regions can be explained by weak and frequent nanoflares (with a delay of less than 500 seconds) or by very short and intense nanoflares that lead to non-equilibrium ionization.  相似文献   

Representation of light pressure resultant force and moment as a tensor series     

Nikolay Nerovny  Vladimir Zimin  Sergey Fedorchuk  Evgeny Golubev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,128(4):483-513

In this article, we address the problem of the determination of light pressure upon space structures with a complex geometric shape. For each surface element, we enforce a condition that it can interact with light only from its front side, a condition represented in the form of series of Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind. This Chebyshev expansion enables the use of a series of tensors of increasing rank for determination of the force and moment acting on the sail. We obtain expressions for the determination of light pressure on space structures of complex geometry, taking into account self-shadowing and reflections within the structure. We also give the expressions for tensor parametrization using the specularity coefficient in case of specular -diffuse reflection. For these expressions, we calculated the principal moment and force upon two-sided flat solar sail, spherical and cylindrical bodies, and approximated light pressure upon the proposed space-based observatory Millimetron. The proposed expressions can be used in the ballistic analysis of solar sails and other space objects significantly affected by radiation pressure. Also, these results can be used to analyze the dynamics of large-scale space structures around their center of gravity under light pressure.  相似文献   

Middle to late Pleistocene record of explosive volcanic eruptions in marine sediments offshore Kamchatka (Meiji Rise,NW Pacific)     

Alexander N. Derkachev  Sergey A. Gorbarenko  Vera V. Ponomareva  Maxim V. Portnyagin  Galina I. Malakhova  Yanguang Liu 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(1-2):362-379

This paper presents the first detailed study of a late Pleistocene marine tephra sequence from the NW Pacific, downwind from the Kamchatka volcanic arc. Sediment core SO201-2-40, located on the Meiji Rise ~400 km offshore the peninsula, includes 25 tephras deposited within the last 215 ka. Volcanic glass from the tephras was characterized using single-shard electron microprobe analysis and laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry. The age of tephras was derived from a new age model based on paleomagnetic and paleoclimate studies. Geochemical correlation of distal tephras to Kamchatkan pyroclastic deposits allowed the identification of tephras from the Karymsky, Gorely, Opala and Shiveluch eruptive centers. Three of these tephras were also correlated to other marine and terrestrial sites and hence are identified as the best markers for the north-west Pacific region. These are an early Holocene tephra from the Karymsky caldera (~8.7 ka) and two tephras falling into the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 glacial time: an MIS 6.4 tephra from Shiveluch (~141 ka) and the MIS 6.5 Rauchua tephra (~175 ka) from Karymsky. The data presented in this study can be used in paleovolcanological and paleoceanographic reconstructions.  相似文献   

Characteristics of topographic submesoscale eddies off the Crimea coast from high-resolution satellite optical measurements     

Aleskerova  Anna  Kubryakov  Arseny  Stanichny  Sergey  Medvedeva  Alessia  Plotnikov  Evgeniy  Mizyuk  Artem  Verzhevskaia  Liudmila 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(6):655-677

Ocean Dynamics - Long-term arrays of satellite optical measurements of Landsat-5,7,8 and Sentinel-2 were used to describe the characteristics of submesoscale eddy (SE) dynamics in different parts...  相似文献   

Low heavy-element photospheric abundance: a challenge for solar modeling     

Sergey V. Ayukov  Vladimir A. Baturin 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2010,328(1-2):23-27

Recent spectroscopic data pointing to low heavy-element abundances Z pose a severe problem for solar-structure modeling. The low-Z abundances imply a lower opacity and a relatively shallow convective zone, both of which are in obvious contradiction with the observed helioseismic sound-speed profile. This paper presents a series of solar models with different heavy-element abundances. The SAHA-S equation of state and OPAL opacities properly take into account the respective heavy-element abundances. Diffusion of individual elements is also included in the models. Sound-speed profiles are compared with inversion results and it is shown that the models with low Z are in disagreement with the inversion data. Even combining the effect of diffusion, overshooting and mixing for the sound-speed profile did not lead to a solution of the low-Z problem. Models with varied neon abundance have also been computed. It turned out that a substantial increase of the neon abundance could produce a model in agreement with the sound-speed inversion but the required abundance increase would be unrealistic. The effect of the neon enhancement on the adiabatic exponent profile in the convection zone is also presented.  相似文献   

Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mort Webster  Andrei P. Sokolov  John M. Reilly  Chris E. Forest  Sergey Paltsev  Adam Schlosser  Chien Wang  David Kicklighter  Marcus Sarofim  Jerry Melillo  Ronald G. Prinn  Henry D. Jacoby 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):569-583

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.  相似文献   

Accurate analytical representation of Pluto modern ephemeris     

Sergey M. Kudryavtsev  Natalia S. Kudryavtseva 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2009,105(4):353-360

An accurate development of the latest JPL’s numerical ephemeris of Pluto, DE421, to compact analytical series is done. Rectangular barycentric ICRF coordinates of Pluto from DE421 are approximated by compact Fourier series with a maximum error of 1.3 km over 1900–2050 (the entire time interval covered by the ephemeris). To calculate Pluto positions relative to the Sun, a development of rectangular heliocentric ICRF coordinates of the Solar System barycenter to Poisson series is additionally made. As a result, DE421 Pluto heliocentric positions by the new analytical series are represented to an accuracy of better than 5 km over 1900–2050.  相似文献   

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation     

Christina Neal  Olga Girina  Sergey Senyukov  Alexander Rybin  Jeffrey Osiensky  Pavel Izbekov  Gail Ferguson 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(2):245-262

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded.  相似文献   

Fast data assimilation using a nonlinear Kalman filter and a model surrogate: An application to the Columbia River estuary   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sergey Frolov  Antnio M. Baptista  Todd K. Leen  Zhegdong Lu  Rudolph van der Merwe 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2009,48(1-3):16

A fast and adjoint-free nonlinear data assimilation (DA) system was developed to simulate 3D baroclinic circulation in estuaries, leveraging two recently developed technologies: (1) a nonlinear model surrogate that executes forward simulation three orders of magnitude faster than a forward numerical circulation code and (2) a nonlinear extension to the reduced-dimension Kalman filter that estimates the state of the model surrogate. The noise sources in the Kalman filter were calibrated using empirical cross-validation and accounted for errors in model and model forcing.The DA system was applied to assimilate in situ measurements of water levels, salinities, and temperatures in simulations of the Columbia River estuary. To validate the DA results, we used a combination of cross-validation studies, process-oriented studies, and tests of statistical and dynamical consistency. The validation studies showed that DA improved the representation of several important processes in the estuary, including nonlinear tidal propagation, salinity intrusion, estuarine residual circulation, heat balance, and response of the estuary to coastal winds.  相似文献