Assessment of a spatial multi-criteria evaluation to site selection underground dams in the Alborz Province,Iran   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Javad Chezgi  Seyed Amir Naghibi  Hamid Reza Moradi  Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh 《国际地球制图》2016,31(6):628-646

Most part of Iran is arid and semi-arid; thus in most parts of the region, groundwater is the only source of water. This research presents a method based on a spatial multi-criterion evaluation (SMCE) for designing possible sites of underground dams and ranks them according to their suitability. The method was tested for siting underground dams in the Alborz Province, Iran. At first, screening algorithm was applied using exclusionary criteria, and thirty-one potential areas were recognized in the study area. In the next step, a suitable gorge or valley was recognized using the combination of basic maps and extensive field surveys (long axis of tank level) in each potential area. Subsequently, the analytical hierarchy process was used as a powerful tool for decision-making in the SMCE in order to evaluate different criteria for underground dam sites. SMCE techniques were then applied to combine the criteria, and obtain a suitability map in the study area. These sites were then compared and ranked according to their main criteria such as water, storage, axis and socio-economics. All these criteria were assessed through geographical information system modelling. This method shows passable results and could be used for site selection of underground dams in other regions of Iran.  相似文献   

Toward more robust extreme flood prediction by Bayesian hierarchical and multimodeling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hongxiang Yan  Hamid Moradkhani 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(1):203-225

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博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化特征及预测对比     

米热古力·艾尼瓦尔  海米提·依米提  麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜  夏库热·塔依尔  Yorov Hasan 《中国沙漠》2015,35(3)

根据1961—2012年湖泊水位观测资料,采用时间序列线性趋势分析与小波分析法,对比研究了博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖近50多年来水位变化特征,并对湖泊未来水位变化趋势进行预测。结果显示:(1)1961—2012年,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位总体呈显著的下降趋势。20世纪80年代中期之前,两湖水位变化趋势基本一致,都平稳下降;90年代后,博斯腾湖水位变化波动比伊塞克湖更为频繁,经历了迅速上升和下降的阶段,而伊塞克湖年水位较为稳定。(2)水位小波分析结果表明,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位变化分别存在18a和22a的主周期,从水位未来变化趋势预测结果来看,博斯腾湖水位将来一段时间继续下降,伊塞克湖水位则继续上升。  相似文献   

Entropic gravity versus gravitational pseudotensors in static spherically symmetric spacetimes     

S. Hamid Mehdipour 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,352(2):877-881

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A non‐linear coupled finite element–boundary element model for the prediction of vibrations due to vibratory and impact pile driving     

Hamid Reza Masoumi  Stijn François  Geert Degrande 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2009,33(2):245-274

This paper presents a non‐linear coupled finite element–boundary element approach for the prediction of free field vibrations due to vibratory and impact pile driving. Both the non‐linear constitutive behavior of the soil in the vicinity of the pile and the dynamic interaction between the pile and the soil are accounted for. A subdomain approach is used, defining a generalized structure consisting of the pile and a bounded region of soil around the pile, and an unbounded exterior linear soil domain. The soil around the pile may exhibit non‐linear constitutive behavior and is modelled with a time‐domain finite element method. The dynamic stiffness matrix of the exterior unbounded soil domain is calculated using a boundary element formulation in the frequency domain based on a limited number of modes defined on the interface between the generalized structure and the unbounded soil. The soil–structure interaction forces are evaluated as a convolution of the displacement history and the soil flexibility matrices, which are obtained by an inverse Fourier transformation from the frequency to the time domain. This results in a hybrid frequency–time domain formulation of the non‐linear dynamic soil–structure interaction problem, which is solved in the time domain using Newmark's time integration method; the interaction force time history is evaluated using the θ‐scheme in order to obtain stable solutions. The proposed hybrid formulation is validated for linear problems of vibratory and impact pile driving, showing very good agreement with the results obtained with a frequency‐domain solution. Linear predictions, however, overestimate the free field peak particle velocities as observed in reported field experiments during vibratory and impact pile driving at comparable levels of the transferred energy. This is mainly due to energy dissipation related to plastic deformations in the soil around the pile. Ground vibrations due to vibratory and impact pile driving are, therefore, also computed with a non‐linear model where the soil is modelled as an isotropic elastic, perfectly plastic solid, which yields according to the Drucker–Prager failure criterion. This results in lower predicted free field vibrations with respect to linear predictions, which are also in much better agreement with experimental results recorded during vibratory and impact pile driving. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (<Emphasis Type="Italic">A</Emphasis>max) with PSHA in Iran     

Hamid Salahshoor  Alexey Lyubushin  Elham Shabani  Javad Kazemian 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(6):1515-1527

Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (A_max) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of A_max and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of A_max on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the A_max is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of A_max for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.  相似文献   

Seismic source zoning and maximum credible earthquake prognosis of the Greater Kashmir Territory,NW Himalaya     

Hamid Sana  Sankar Kumar Nath 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(2):411-424

We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m _max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M _w 7.7, M _w 8.5, and M _w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m _max of M _w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m _max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m _max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.  相似文献   

Development of fragility curves by incorporating new spectral shape indicators and a weighted damage index: case study of steel braced frames in the city of Mashhad,Iran     

Hamid Kazemi  Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany  Alireza Azarbakht 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2017,16(2):383-395

In this study, strong ground motion record(SGMR) selection based on Eta(η) as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced frame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon(ε) and the target Eta(η) values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR's. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter η is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate ε values.  相似文献   

Effect of seismic waves on the hydro-mechanical properties of fractured rock masses     

Meysam Lak  Alireza Baghbanan  Hamid Hashemolhoseini 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2017,16(3):525-536

The transmission of seismic waves in a particular region may influence the hydraulic properties of a rock mass, including permeability, which is one of the most important. To determine the effect of a seismic wave on the hydraulic behavior of a fractured rock mass, systematic numerical modeling was conducted. A number of discrete fracture network(DFN) models with a size of 20 m × 20 m were used as geometrical bases, and a discrete element method(DEM) was employed as a numerical simulation tool. Three different boundary conditions without(Type Ⅰ) and with static(Type Ⅱ) and dynamic(Type Ⅲ) loading were performed on the models, and then their permeability was calculated. The results showed that permeability in Type Ⅲ models was respectively 62.7% and 44.2% higher than in Type I and Type Ⅱ models. This study indicates that seismic waves can affect deep earth, and, according to the results, seismic waves increase the permeability and change the flow rate patterns in a fractured rock mass.  相似文献   

Aeolian sediment fingerprinting using a Bayesian mixing model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Hamid Gholami  Matt W. Telfer  William H. Blake  Abolhassan Fathabadi 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(14):2365-2376

Identifying sand provenance in depositional aeolian environments (e.g. dunefields) can elucidate sediment pathways and fluxes, and inform potential land management strategies where windblown sand and dust is a hazard to health and infrastructure. However, the complexity of these pathways typically makes this a challenging proposition, and uncertainties on the composition of mixed‐source sediments are often not reported. This study demonstrates that a quantitative fingerprinting method within the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework offers great potential for exploring the provenance and uncertainties associated with aeolian sands. Eight samples were taken from dunes of the small (~58 km²) Ashkzar erg, central Iran, and 49 from three distinct potential sediment sources in the surrounding area. These were analyzed for 61 tracers including 53 geochemical elements (trace, major and rare earth elements (REE)) and eight REE ratios. Kruskal–Wallis H‐tests and stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA) allowed the identification of an optimum composite fingerprint based on six tracers (Rb, Sr, ⁸⁷Sr, (La/Yb)_n, Ga and δCe), and a Bayesian mixing model was applied to derive the source apportionment estimates within an uncertainty framework. There is substantial variation in the uncertainties in the fingerprinting results, with some samples yielding clear discrimination of components, and some with less clear fingerprints. Quaternary terraces and fans contribute the largest component to the dunes, but they are also the most extensive surrounding unit; clay flats and marls, however, contribute out of proportion to their small outcrop extent. The successful application of these methods to aeolian sediment deposits demonstrates their potential for providing quantitative estimates of aeolian sediment provenances in other mixed‐source arid settings, and may prove especially beneficial where sediment is derived from multiple sources, or where other methods of provenance (e.g. detrital zircon U–Pb dating) are not possible due to mineralogical constraints. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献