Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonathan N. Procter  Shane J. Cronin  Thomas Platz  Abani Patra  Keith Dalbey  Michael Sheridan  Vince Neall 《Natural Hazards》2010,53(3):483-501

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary tephra layers around Raoul and Macauley Islands,Kermadec Arc: implications for volcanic sources,explosive volcanism and tephrochronology     

Phil Shane  Ian C. Wright 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(4):422-432

A suite of deep‐sea cores were collected along transects up to 100 km across the fore‐arc and back‐arc regions of the predominantly submarine Kermadec arc near Raoul and Macauley islands, southwest Pacific. The cores reveal a macroscopic tephra record extending back >50 ka. This is a significant addition to the dated record of volcanism, previously restricted to fragmented late Holocene records exposed on the two islands. The 27 macroscopic tephra layers display a wide compositional diversity in glass (～50–78 wt% SiO₂). Many tephra layers comprise silicic shards with a subordinate mafic shard population. This could arise from magma mingling and may reflect mafic triggering of the silicic eruptions. Broadly, the glass compositions can be distinguished on diverging high‐K and low‐K trends, most likely arising from different source volcanoes. This distinction is also reflected in the tephra records exposed on Raoul (low‐K) and Macauley (high‐K) islands, the likely source areas. Heterogeneous tephra comprising shards of both high‐ and low‐K affinity, silicic and mafic compositions, and more homogeneous tephra with subordinate outlier shard compositions, are best explained by post‐depositional mixing of separate eruption deposits or contemporaneous eruptions. Evidently, the slow sedimentation rates of the calcareous oozes (～10¹–10² mm ka^?1) were insufficient to adequately separate and preserve closely spaced eruption deposits. This exemplifies the difficulty in assessing eruption frequencies and magmatic trends, and erecting a tephrostratigraphy, using geochemical fingerprinting in such environments. Despite these difficulties, the ca. 5.7 ka Sandy Bay Tephra erupted from Macauley Island can be correlated over a distance of >100 km, extending east and west of the island, showing that the mostly submerged volcanoes are capable of wide tephra dispersal. Hence there is potential for developing chronostratigraphies for the southwest Pacific beyond the region covered by the extensive rhyolite marker beds from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The influence of magma plumbing complexity on monogenetic eruptions,Jeju Island,Korea     

Marco Brenna  Shane J. Cronin  Károly Németh  Ian E. M. Smith  Young Kwan Sohn 《地学学报》2011,23(2):70-75

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Helical magnetic fields associated with the relativistic jets of four BL Lac objects     

Denise C. Gabuzda  Éamonn Murray  Patrick Cronin 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,351(4):L89-L93

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TropFlux wind stresses over the tropical oceans: evaluation and comparison with other products     

B. Praveen Kumar  J. Vialard  M. Lengaigne  V. S. N. Murty  M. J. McPhaden  M. F. Cronin  F. Pinsard  K. Gopala Reddy 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(7-8):2049-2071

In this paper, we present TropFlux wind stresses and evaluate them against observations along with other widely used daily air-sea momentum flux products (NCEP, NCEP2, ERA-I and QuikSCAT). TropFlux wind stresses are computed from the COARE v3.0 algorithm, using bias and amplitude corrected ERA-I input data and an additional climatological gustiness correction. The wind stress products are evaluated against dependent data from the TAO/TRITON, PIRATA and RAMA arrays and independent data from the OceanSITES mooring networks. Wind stress products are more consistent amongst each other than surface heat fluxes, suggesting that 10 m-winds are better constrained than near-surface thermodynamical parameters (2 m-humidity and temperature) and surface downward radiative fluxes. QuikSCAT overestimates wind stresses away from the equator, while NCEP and NCEP2 underestimate wind stresses, especially in the equatorial Pacific. QuikSCAT wind stress quality is strongly affected by rain under the Inter Tropical Convergence Zones. ERA-I and TropFlux display the best agreement with in situ data, with correlations >0.93 and rms-differences <0.012 Nm^?2. TropFlux wind stresses exhibit a small, but consistent improvement (at all timescales and most locations) over ERA-I, with an overall 17 % reduction in root mean square error. ERA-I and TropFlux agree best with long-term mean zonal wind stress observations at equatorial latitudes. All products tend to underestimate the zonal wind stress seasonal cycle by ~20 % in the western and central equatorial Pacific. TropFlux and ERA-I equatorial zonal wind stresses have clearly the best phase agreement with mooring data at intraseasonal and interannual timescales (correlation of ~0.9 versus ~0.8 at best for any other product), with TropFlux correcting the ~13 % underestimation of ERA-I variance at both timescales. For example, TropFlux was the best at reproducing westerly wind bursts that played a key role in the 1997–1998 El Niño onset. Hence, we recommend the use of TropFlux for studies of equatorial ocean dynamics.  相似文献   

Black hole spin in GRS 1915+105   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Matthew Middleton  Chris Done  Marek Gierli&#;ski  Shane W. Davis 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,373(3):1004-1012

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Paleoecological investigation of recent lake acidification in the northern Great Lakes states   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J. C. Kingston  R. B. Cook  R. G. Kreis Jr.  K. E. Camburn  S. A. Norton  P. R. Sweets  M. W. Binford  M. J. Mitchell  S. C. Schindler  L. C. K. Shane  G. A. King 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1990,4(2):153-201

Paleoecological analyses of sediments from nine northern Great Lakes states (NGLS) lakes reveal small pH changes in seven of these lakes since 1860, four of these being declines. The largest diatom-inferred (DI) pH declines of 0.5 pH units were found in Brown L. and Denton L., Wisconsin. Two other lakes with suspected total alkalinity declines (based on an acidification model and on historical water chemistry, respectively), McNearney L., Michigan, and Camp 12 L., Wisconsin, have not acidified recently according to diatom-inference techniques. Many of the observed trends of increasing pH are coincident with logging; floristic composition of diatom assemblages also changed coincident with fisheries manipulations in some lakes, but these floristic trends did not affect DI pH. Sediment core profiles of Pb, S, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons provide a record of atmospheric deposition of fossil fuel combustion products beginning around the turn of the century; onset is later and accumulation rates are smaller than for other northeastern study regions of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) Project. The response of diatom species to lakewater pH in the NGLS region is very strong and similar to response in other regions. Overall, there is little paleoecological evidence that acidic deposition has caused significant acidification of lakes in the NGLS region.This is the twelfth of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D.F. Charles and D.R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.  相似文献   

The eruptive history and volcanic hazards of Savo, Solomon Islands     

M. Petterson  S. Cronin  P. Taylor  D. Tolia  A. Papabatu  T. Toba  C. Qopoto 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(2-3):165-181

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Estuarine retention of larvae of the crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii     

Thomas W. Cronin 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1982,15(2):207-220

Larvae of estuarine organisms continually face possible export from the parent estuary. Retention of larvae of the estuarine crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii was investigated in the upper Newport River estuary, North Carolina. All of the developmental stages occurred in the same area of the estuary with similar horizontal distributions, and the concentrations of intermediate and late stages were not greatly reduced from those of the first larval stage. This was strong evidence for the continuous retention of larvae in the upper estuary.To determine mechanisms by which retention might be effected, field studies of the vertical distributions and migrations of these larvae were made. The four zoeal stages had similar but complex vertical migration patterns, which varied from study to study. These migrations centered on the depth of no net flow, reducing longitudinal transport during development. Cross-spectral analysis of the larval migrations and the environmental cycles of light, salinity and current speed revealed that each of these external cycles affected larval depth. Megalopae of R. harrisii also migrated vertically, but they were present in much lower concentrations than the zoeal stages, an indication of a change to benthic existence in this final larval form.  相似文献   

Galaxy magnitudes     

Gerald E. Kron  C. D. Shane 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1974,27(1):233-240

In this, the first of a short series of papers on the magnitudes of galaxies, the dependence of magnitude on the aperture used in photoelectric measures is discussed. mean results from an empirical study are presented.  相似文献