Medium-range forecast of cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean with multilayer perceptron model using satellite data     

Sutapa Chaudhuri  Sayantika Goswami  Anirban Middey 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):173-193

An attempt is made in this study to develop a model to forecast the cyclonic depressions leading to cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean (NIO) with 3 days lead time. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and the forecast quality of the model is compared with other neural network and multiple linear regression models to assess the forecast skill and performances of the MLP model. The input matrix of the model is prepared with the data of cloud coverage, cloud top temperature, cloud top pressure, cloud optical depth, cloud water path collected from remotely sensed moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS), and sea surface temperature. The input data are collected 3 days before the cyclogenesis over NIO. The target output is the central pressure, pressure drop, wind speed, and sea surface temperature associated with cyclogenesis over NIO. The models are trained with the data and records from 1998 to 2008. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model varies between 0 and 7.2 % for target outputs. The errors with MLP are less than radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, linear neural network where the errors vary between 0 and 8.4 %, 0.3 and 24.8 %, and 0.3 and 32.4 %, respectively. The forecast with conventional statistical multiple linear regression model, on the other hand, generates error values between 15.9 and 32.4 %. The performances of the models are validated for the cyclonic storms of 2009, 2010, and 2011. The forecast errors with MLP model during validation are also observed to be minimum.  相似文献   

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a superparameterized coupled climate model: need to improve the embedded cloud resolving model     

Bidyut B. Goswami  P. Mukhopadhyay  Marat Khairoutdinov  B. N. Goswami 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1497-1507

The characteristic features of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) are analyzed in the 25 year simulation by the superparameterized Community Climate System Model (SP-CCSM). The observations indicate the low frequency oscillation with a period of 30–60 day to have the highest power with a dominant northward propagation, while the faster mode of MISO with a period of 10–20 day shows a stationary pattern with no northward propagation. SP-CCSM simulates two dominant quasi-periodic oscillations with periods 15–30 day and 40–70 day indicating a systematic low frequency bias in simulating the observed modes. Further, contrary to the observation, the SP-CCSM 15–30 day mode has a significant northward propagation; while the 40–70 day mode does not show prominent northward propagation. The inability of the SP-CCSM to reproduce the observed modes correctly is shown to be linked with inability of the cloud resolving model (CRM) to reproduce the characteristic heating associated with the barotropic and baroclinic vertical structures of the high-frequency and the low-frequency modes. It appears that the superparameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM) certainly improves seasonal mean model bias significantly. There is a need to improve the CRM through which the barotropic and baroclinic modes are simulated with proper space and time distribution.  相似文献   

Four-dimensional structure and sub-seasonal regulation of the Indian summer monsoon multi-decadal mode     

Rajesh  P. V.  Goswami  B. N. 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2645-2666

A better understanding of the drivers and teleconnection mechanisms responsible for the multi decadal mode (MDM) of variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with major socio-economic impacts in the region through clustering of large-scale floods or droughts is key to improving the poor simulation of ISMR MDM by most climate models. Here, using the longest instrumental record of ISMR available (1813–2006) and longest atmospheric and oceanic re-analyses, the global four dimensional (space–time) structures of atmospheric and oceanic fields of the multi-decadal mode of ISMR and sub-seasonal evolution of the teleconnection mechanism are brought out, essential for understanding underlying drivers but lacking so far. The relationships between the spatial structure of winds, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and thermocline depth with the ISMR MDM indicate that the tropical ocean over the Indo-Pacific domain is passive responding primarily to the surface winds associated with the mode. A close association between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), north Atlantic (NA) SST, NA sea surface salinity (SSS) and the ISMR MDM indicate a slow oceanic pathway linking NA SST and the ISMR. In addition to strong correlation (~ 0.9) between global spatial patterns of JJAS SST associated with the MDMs of ISMR, NA SST and AMOC, strong temporal coherence (correlations ~ 0.9) between them is suggestive of regulation of the ISMR MDM (T ~ 65-years) by the NA SST associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) through a ‘fast’ atmospheric bridge. On a seasonal time scale, the atmospheric bridge manifests in the form of a stationary Rossby wave train generated by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) barotropic vorticity located above positive (negative) SST anomaly over NA in two phases of the AMO. That the AMO SST is the driver of the ISMR MDM is further supported when we unravel the sub-seasonal face of the teleconnection between the two. We show that phase locking of active (break) spells with annual cycle during positive (negative) phases of the ISMR MDM are forced by a similar phase locking of barotropic anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity over the NA SST with the annual cycle through the generation of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity at upper level over the Indian region with the NA columnar vorticity leading Indian monsoon rainfall by about a week. Our findings provide a basis for enhanced predictability of tropical climate through slow modulation by extra-tropical SST.

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International Conference on “Isotopes in the Solar System” 1997 November 11–14, 1997, Ahmedabad,India     

J. N. Goswami 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1996,31(5):690-690

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The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

K. Krishna Kumar  K. Kamala  Balaji Rajagopalan  Martin P. Hoerling  Jon K. Eischeid  S. K. Patwardhan  G. Srinivasan  B. N. Goswami  Ramakrishna Nemani 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(11-12):2159-2170

We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent.  相似文献   

Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification     

Sutapa Chaudhuri  Debashree Dutta  Sayantika Goswami  Anirban Middey 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):97-113

The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T??number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70?%) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62?%. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8?%, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72?h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models.  相似文献   

Multilayer Perceptron Model for Nowcasting Visibility from Surface Observations: Results and Sensitivity to Dissimilar Station Altitudes     

Sutapa Chaudhuri  Debanjana Das  Ishita Sarkar  Sayantika Goswami 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(10):2813-2829

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Role of organic matter in uranium mineralisation in Vempalle dolostone; Cuddapah basin,India     

Sukanta Goswami  Sangeeta Bhagat  Syed Zakaulla  Suresh Kumar  A. K. Rai 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2017,89(2):145-154

Dolostone of Vempalle Formation near Tummalapalle hosts large uranium deposit (>100,000 tonnes with an average grade of 0.045%U₃O₈). It is a unique type of uranium deposit because carbonate formations have been considered to be among the least uraniferous of all the rocks of the Earth’s crust due to mobility of uranium in aqueous fluid in the presence of carbonate and bicarbonate ions. Vempalle dolostone hosts syn-sedimentary uranium mineralization in the form of discrete uranium phases (pitchblende and coffinite) associated with collophane, and adsorbed uranium in organic matter. The organic matter has played dual role of concentrating uranium from solution and also chemically reducing it to pitchhblende and coffinite.  相似文献   

Trace element distribution and risk assessment in South Indian surface waterways     

K. S. Guruge  P. Goswami  I. Watanabe  S. Abeykoon  V. P. Prabhasankar  K. R. Binu  D. I. Joshua  K. Balakrishna  M. Akiba  N. Munuswamy 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(1):1-18

The concentrations of 27 major and trace elements are determined in surface water samples collected from 48 sites of diverse waterways in four states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana) of South India. The aims of this study are to identify the element distribution, comparatively assess the pollution risk, and evaluate human health risks related to diverse waterways in the study area. The results indicate that elements such as Cr, Se, As, Fe, and Mn are the major pollutants, as their concentrations exceeded the acceptable national and international water quality standards in several sites of Ennore, Adyar, Cooum, Periyar, and Vrishabhavathi rivers. Furthermore, statistical analysis reveals that the Ennore, Adyar, Cooum, Periyar, and Kaveri river basins are affected by various anthropogenic activities, leading to moderate-to-high pollution by As, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Se. Potential pollution sources are industrial waste, sewage intrusion, paint industry waste, and automobile runoff. Overall, the investigated sites are categorized into three major groups: highly, moderately, and least polluted. Risk on human health by metals is then evaluated using hazard quotients (HQs) and carcinogenic risk evaluation; the results indicated that As with HQ >1 is the most hazardous pollutant, which could lead to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic concerns, particularly in children. This study helps in establishing pollutant loading reduction goal and the total maximum daily loads and consequently contributes to preserving public health and developing water conservation strategies.  相似文献   

Determination of rare earth and refractory trace element abundances in early solar system objects by ion microprobe     

S. Sahijpal  K. K. Marhas  J. N. Goswami 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(4):485-498

Experimental and analytical procedures devised for measurement of rare earth element (REE) abundances using a secondary ion mass spectrometer (ion microprobe) are described. This approach is more versatile than the conventional techniques such as neutron activation analysis and isotope dilution mass spectrometry by virtue of its high spatial resolution that allows determination of REE abundances in small domains (10-20 micron) within individual mineral phases. The ion microprobe measurements are performed at a low mass-resolving power adopting the energy-filtering technique (Zinner and Crozaz 1986) for removal and suppression of unresolved complex molecular interferences in the REE masses of interest. Synthetic standards are used for determining various instrument specific parameters needed in the data deconvolution procedure adopted for obtaining REE abundances. Results obtained from analysis of standards show that our ion microprobe may be used for determining REE abundances down to ppm range with uncertainties of ∼ 10 to 15%. Abundances of rare earth and several other refractory trace elements in a set of early solar system objects isolated from two primitive carbonaceous chondrites were determined using the procedures devised by us. The results suggest that some of these objects could be high temperature nebular condensates, while others are products of melting and recrystallization of precursor nebular solids in a high temperature environment.  相似文献