Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Tobias Siegfried  Thomas Bernauer  Renaud Guiennet  Scott Sellars  Andrew W. Robertson  Justin Mankin  Peter Bauer-Gottwein  Andrey Yakovlev 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):881-899

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.  相似文献   

Size-segregated characterization of PM10 at the EMEP site Melpitz (Germany) using a five-stage impactor: a six year study     

G. Spindler  T. Gnauk  A. Grüner  Y. Iinuma  K. Müller  S. Scheinhardt  H. Herrmann 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2012,69(2):127-157

Size-segregated particle samples were collected using a Berner 5-stage impactor (stages 1?C5: 0.05?C0.14?C0.42?C1.2?C3.5?C10???m aerodynamic diameter). The means for all 169?days and for different categories of days were used for a characterization. The sorting criteria were (a) the distinction between winter (Wi, November to April) and summer (Su, May to October), (b) the distinction between air mass inflow from a sector West (W, 210?°?C320?°) and from a sector East (E, 35?°?C140?°). For the assignment of the air mass origin 96-h backward trajectories were used and four categories (WiW, WiE, SuW and SuE) with 48, 18, 42 and 29?days were established. The lowest mean particle mass concentrations were found for SuW and the highest for WiE with relative mass concentration distributions of 5.9, 28.2, 36.5, 18.0, and 11.4?% and 3.5, 22.7, 52.6, 16.7, and 4.5?% for stages 1?C5, respectively. The mass closure for water soluble ions, water, organic material (OM) and elemental carbon (EC) accounts for 81?C99?% of the gravimetric mass in Wi and for 60?C81?% for Su, depending on the stage. The fractions of nitrate were relatively high for WiW while sulphate fractions are high for WiE. The estimated concentrations of secondary organic carbon (SOA) on stage 3 for WiW, WiE, SuW and SuE were 0.32, 1.25, 0.27 and 0.58???gm^?3, respectively. The highest amount of SOA is found for WiE, representing 59?% of organic carbon (OC). The highest difference in the percentages of SOA in OC was found between winter (WiW 55?%, WiE 59?%) and summer (SuW and SuE 74?%) indicating photochemical processes during long-range transport. The mean Carbon Preference Indices (CPI) are highest for SuE (stage 4: 7.57 and stage 5: 9.82) resulting mainly from plant wax abrasion in the surrounding forests. For WiE the mean PAH concentration on stage 3 (9.7?ngm^?3) is about five times higher than for WiW, indicating long range transport following domestic heating and other combustion processes.  相似文献   

Footprints in Homogeneously and Heterogeneously Driven Boundary Layers Derived from a Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Model Embedded into Large-Eddy Simulation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gerald Steinfeld  Siegfried Raasch  Tiina Markkanen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,129(2):225-248

A Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model, which is embedded into a parallelised large-eddy simulation (LES) model, is used for dispersion and footprint evaluations. For the first time an online coupling between LES and LS models is applied. The new model reproduces concentration patterns, which were obtained in prior studies, provided that subgrid-scale turbulence is included in the LS model. Comparisons with prior studies show that the model evaluates footprints successfully. Streamwise dispersion leads to footprint maxima that are situated less far upstream than previously reported. Negative flux footprints are detected in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The wide range of applicability of the model is shown by applying it under neutral and stable stratification. It is pointed out that the turning of the wind direction with height leads to a considerable dependency of source areas on height. First results of an application to a heterogeneously heated CBL are presented, which emphasize that footprints are severely affected by the inhomogeneity.  相似文献   

Noble gas adsorption with and without mechanical stress: Not Martian signatures but fractionated air     

Susanne P. SCHWENZER  Siegfried HERRMANN  Ulrich OTT 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(6):1049-1061

Abstract– Sample preparation, involving physical and chemical methods, is an unavoidable step in geochemical analysis. From a noble gas perspective, the two important effects are loss of sample gas and/or incorporation of air, which are significant sources of analytical artifacts. This article reports on the effects of sample exposure to laboratory air without mechanical influence and during sample grinding. The experiments include pure adsorption on terrestrial analog materials (gibbsite and olivine) and grinding of Martian meteorites. A consistent observation is the presence of an elementally fractionated air component in the samples studied. This is a critical form of terrestrial contamination in meteorites as it often mimics the heavy noble gas signatures of known extra‐terrestrial end‐members that are the basis of important conclusions about the origin and evolution of a meteorite. Although the effects of such contamination can be minimized by avoiding elaborate sample preparation protocols, caution should be exercised in interpreting the elemental ratios (Ar/Xe, Kr/Xe), especially in the low‐temperature step extractions. The experiments can also be transferred to the investigation of Martian meteorites with long terrestrial residence times, and to Mars, where the Mars Science Laboratory mission will be able to measure noble gas signatures in the current atmosphere and in rocks and soils collected on the surface in Gale crater.  相似文献   

Mercury: Internal structure and thermal evolution     

Robert W. Siegfried  Sean C. Solomon 《Icarus》1974,23(2):192-205

Astronomical observations and cosmochemical calculations suggest that the planet Mercury may be composed of materials which condensed at relatively high temperatures in the primitive solar nebula and may have a basaltic crust similar to parts of the moon. These findings, plus the long standing inference that Mercury is much richer in metallic iron than the other terrestrial planets, provide important constraints which we apply to models of the thermal evolution and density structure of the planet. The thermal history calculations include explicitly the differing thermal properties of iron and silicates and account for core segregation, melting and differentiation of heat sources, and simulated convection during melting. If the U and Th abundances of Mercury are taken from the cosmochemical model of Lewis, then the planet would have fully differentiated a metal core from the silicate mantle for all likely initial temperature distributions and heat transfer properties. Density distributions for the planet are calculated from the mean density and estimates of the present-day temperature. For the fully differentiated model, the moment of inertia C/MR² is 0.325 (J₂=0.302×10^?6). For models with lower heat source abundances, the planet may not yet have differentiated. The density profiles for such models give C/MR²=0.394 (J₂=0.487×10^?6). These results should be useful for preliminary interpretation of the Mariner 10 measurements of Mercury's gravitational field.  相似文献   

Die geologische Erforschung der Baltischen Länder     

Paul Siegfried 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1940,31(7-8):488-494

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Enabling affordable omnidirectional subsurface extended image volumes via probing          下载免费PDF全文

Tristan van Leeuwen  Rajiv Kumar  Felix J. Herrmann 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(2):385-406

Image gathers as a function of subsurface offset are an important tool for the inference of rock properties and velocity analysis in areas of complex geology. Traditionally, these gathers are thought of as multidimensional correlations of the source and receiver wavefields. The bottleneck in computing these gathers lies in the fact that one needs to store, compute, and correlate these wavefields for all shots in order to obtain the desired image gathers. Therefore, the image gathers are typically only computed for a limited number of subsurface points and for a limited range of subsurface offsets, which may cause problems in complex geological areas with large geologic dips. We overcome increasing computational and storage costs of extended image volumes by introducing a formulation that avoids explicit storage and removes the customary and expensive loop over shots found in conventional extended imaging. As a result, we end up with a matrix–vector formulation from which different image gathers can be formed and with which amplitude‐versus‐angle and wave‐equation migration velocity analysis can be performed without requiring prior information on the geologic dips. Aside from demonstrating the formation of two‐way extended image gathers for different purposes and at greatly reduced costs, we also present a new approach to conduct automatic wave‐equation‐based migration‐velocity analysis. Instead of focusing in particular offset directions and preselected subsets of subsurface points, our method focuses every subsurface point for all subsurface offset directions using a randomized probing technique. As a consequence, we obtain good velocity models at low cost for complex models without the need to provide information on the geologic dips.  相似文献   

Catch Crop Known to Decrease N-leaching also Counteracts Soil CO2 Emissions     

Marie MATTSSON  Marie MAGNHEDEN  Siegfried FLEISCHER 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2015,6(3):180-185

CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere were studied in a fertilized sandy agricultural soil with and without a catch crop sown into the main crop. The catch crop was grown primarily with the purpose to decrease N-leaching but this study also wanted to find out if the catch crop could have an effect in a climate change perspective. Plots with catch crop showed decreased CO₂ emissions from the soil. Since previous results have shown that catch crops effectively decrease N-leaching we recommend growing catch crops as an effective measure for helping both the climate and the eutrophication issue. Seasonal variations in CO₂ emissions were pronounced with maximum emissions from the fertilized agricultural soil in June and from an adjacent unmanaged grassland in August. From the plot with catch crop emissions decreased in July and August but somewhat increased later in the autumn. Fertilized agricultural soil showed a within-soil CO₂ sink after harvest, i.e. within-soil CO₂ uptake. Availability of NH₄⁺ or NO₃^- in the soil seems to influence the within-soil CO₂ sink, with NH₄⁺ enforcing the sink while the same amount of NO₃^- instead increased CO₂ emissions.  相似文献   

土壤中氮碳间相互作用对全球碳循环的影响(英文)     

Siegfried FLEISCHER 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2012,3(1):16-19

氮循环中的能量产生过程构成与全球碳循环间的重要关联。例如,氮投入土壤,一开始导致CO2排放降低。这一众所周知的效应被理解为土壤呼吸作用受到阻碍或延缓。然而,当把冗余考虑在内便知,氮投入并不使最初得到的CO2最低排放量保持不变,而是逐渐导致排放增加。土壤中硝化作用对CO2消耗过程的特异性抑制,加上铵冗余投入或乙炔作用,往往导致额外的CO2排放量。这种总自养性呼吸(GHR)与CO2净排放(NHR)之间的差就是土壤内CO2汇。土壤呼吸作用单纯由NHR产生的CO2排放量(通常情况)来决定会导致对土壤系统的曲解,特别是在氮沉降量高的地区。因此,必须重新考虑温暖区域土壤呼吸作用的"适应环境"问题。可能也需要质疑氮投入带来的"呼吸抑制"概念。无视这些过程,包括上述氮驱动下的土壤内CO2汇过程,也许会有碍于采取足够的措施来对抗气候变化。  相似文献   

Non-parametric seismic data recovery with curvelet frames   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

Felix J. Herrmann  Gilles Hennenfent 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(1):233-248

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