Robust vulnerability analysis of nuclear facilities subject to external hazards     

Silvia?ToloEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Edoardo?Patelli  Michael?Beer 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2733-2756

Natural hazards have the potential to trigger complex chains of events in technological installations leading to disastrous effects for the surrounding population and environment. The threat of climate change of worsening extreme weather events exacerbates the need for new models and novel methodologies able to capture the complexity of the natural-technological interaction in intuitive frameworks suitable for an interdisciplinary field such as that of risk analysis. This study proposes a novel approach for the quantification of risk exposure of nuclear facilities subject to extreme natural events. A Bayesian Network model, initially developed for the quantification of the risk of exposure from spent nuclear material stored in facilities subject to flooding hazards, is adapted and enhanced to include in the analysis the quantification of the uncertainty affecting the output due to the imprecision of data available and the aleatory nature of the variables involved. The model is applied to the analysis of the nuclear power station of Sizewell B in East Anglia (UK), through the use of a novel computational tool. The network proposed models the direct effect of extreme weather conditions on the facility along several time scenarios considering climate change predictions as well as the indirect effects of external hazards on the internal subsystems and the occurrence of human error. The main novelty of the study consists of the fully computational integration of Bayesian Networks with advanced Structural Reliability Methods, which allows to adequately represent both aleatory and epistemic aspects of the uncertainty affecting the input through the use of probabilistic models, intervals, imprecise random variables as well as probability bounds. The uncertainty affecting the output is quantified in order to attest the significance of the results and provide a complete and effective tool for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

Proposal of design rules for ductile X-CBFS in the framework of EUROCODE 8     

Silvia Costanzo  Mario D'Aniello  Raffaele Landolfo 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(1):124-151

Cross concentrically braced frames (X-CBFs) are commonly used as primary seismic resisting system, owing to their large lateral stiffness, simplicity of design, and relatively low constructional cost. Current EN 1998-1 provides design rules theoretically aiming at developing ductile global plastic mechanism, namely enforcing plastic deformations in the diagonal members, while the remaining structural members and connections should elastically behave. However, as widely demonstrated by many existing studies, the design and the corresponding seismic performance of EC8-compliant X-CBFs are generally affected by several criticisms, eg, difficulties in sizing of diagonal members, massive and non-economical structures, and poor seismic behavior. In light of these considerations, the research activity presented in this paper is addressed to revise the design rules and requirements given EN 1998-1 for X-CBFs to simplify the design process and to improve the ductility and the dissipative capacity of this structural system. Hence, design rules are proposed for the next version of EN 1998-1 and numerically validated by means of nonlinear dynamic analyses.  相似文献   

Can Euler deconvolution outline three-dimensional magnetic sources?     

Elizangela S. Amaral Mota  Walter E. Medeiros  Roberto G. Oliveira 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(7):2271-2291

Severe limitations of the standard Euler deconvolution to outline source shapes have been pointed out. However, Euler deconvolution has been widely employed on field data to outline interfaces, as faults and thrust zones. We investigate the limitations of the 3D Euler deconvolution–derived estimates of source dip and volume with the use of reduced-to-the-pole synthetic and field anomalies. The synthetic anomalies are generated by two types of source bodies: (1) uniformly magnetized prisms, presenting either smooth or rough interfaces, and (2) bodies presenting smooth delimiting interfaces but strong internal variation of magnetization intensity. The dip of the first type of body might be estimated from the Euler deconvolution solution cluster if the ratio between the depth to the top and vertical extent is relatively high (>1/4). For the second type of body, besides dip, the source volume can be approximately delimited from the solution cluster envelope, regardless of the referred ratio. We apply Euler deconvolution to two field anomalies which are caused by a curved-shape thrust zone and by a banded iron formation. These anomalies are chosen because they share characteristics with the two types of synthetic bodies. For the thrust zone, the obtained Euler deconvolution solutions show spatial distribution allowing to estimate a source dip that is consistent with the surface geology data, even if the above-mentioned ratio is much less than 1/4. Thus, there are other factors, such as a heterogeneous magnetization, which might be controlling the vertical spreading of the Euler deconvolution solutions in the thrust zone. On the other hand, for the iron-ore formation, the solution cluster spreads out occupying a volume, in accordance with the results obtained with the synthetic sources having internal variation of magnetization intensity. As conclusion, although Euler deconvolution–derived solutions cannot offer accurate estimates of source shapes, they might provide a sufficient degree of reliability in the initial estimates of the source dip and volume, which may be useful in a later phase of more accurate modelling.  相似文献   

Fluorescence as a Tool for Tracing the Organic Contamination from Pulp Mill Effluents in Surface Waters     

Eduarda B. H. Santos  Olga M. S. Filipe  Regina M. B. O. Duarte  Helena Pinto  Armando C. Duarte 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2001,28(7):364-371

Three‐dimensional fluorescence spectra of water samples from an eucalyptus bleached kraft pulp mill and from a river, upstream and downstream of the discharge of the effluent, revealed the existence of a peak at δ_exc = 280 nm and δ_em = 340 nm Δδ = 60 nm), characteristic of effluentπs organic matter. Humic substances were isolated from the effluent by sequential adsorption onto resins XAD‐8 and XAD‐4 in series. Their synchronous fluorescence spectra with Δδ = 60 nm do also exhibit an intense signal at δ_exc = 280 nm (≈ 300 nm in the humic acid fraction). The peak is absent in the spectra of humic substances isolated from a non‐polluted site of the river, but it is clearly seen in the spectra of the humic substances from a site downstream of the discharge of the effluent. Synchronous fluorescence spectra (Δδ = 60 nm) of water samples from the river and its lagoon were recorded and revealed to be an easy and fast way of tracing the organic contamination from the effluent.  相似文献   

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

da Silva  Richarde Marques  Santos  Celso Augusto Guimarães  da Costa Silva  Jorge Flávio Cazé Braga  Silva  Alexandro Medeiros  Brasil Neto  Reginaldo Moura 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):829-849

Natural Hazards - The main goals of this study are to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in rainfall and to identify rainfall trends and erosivity for the period from 1963 to...  相似文献   

Relative equilibria of the restricted three-body problem in curved spaces     

Regina Martínez  Carles Simó 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,128(2-3):221-259

We use a formulation of the N-body problem in spaces of constant Gaussian curvature, \({\kappa }\in \mathbb {R}\), as widely used by A. Borisov, F. Diacu and their coworkers. We consider the restricted three-body problem in \(\mathbb {S}^2\) with arbitrary \({\kappa }>0\) (resp. \(\mathbb {H}^2\) with arbitrary \({\kappa }<0\)) in a formulation also valid for the case \({\kappa }=0\). For concreteness when \({\kappa }>0\) we restrict the study to the case of the three bodies at the upper hemisphere, to be denoted as \(\mathbb {S}^2_+\). The main goal is to obtain the totality of relative equilibria as depending on the parameters \({\kappa }\) and the mass ratio \(\mu \). Several general results concerning relative equilibria and its stability properties are proved analytically. The study is completed numerically using continuation from the \({\kappa }=0\) case and from other limit cases. In particular both bifurcations and spectral stability are also studied. The \(\mathbb {H}^2\) case is similar, in some sense, to the planar one, but in the \(\mathbb {S}^2_+\) case many differences have been found. Some surprising phenomena, like the coexistence of many triangular-like solutions for some values \(({\kappa },\mu )\) and many stability changes will be discussed.  相似文献   

Dissolved and particulate heavy metals distribution in coastal lagoons. A case study from Mar Chiquita Lagoon,Argentina     

María Ornela Beltrame  Silvia G. De Marco  Jorge E. Marcovecchio 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Mar Chiquita Coastal Lagoon is located on the Atlantic coast of Argentina, and it has been declared a Biosphere Reserve under the UNESCO Man and Biosphere Programme (MAB). This coastal lagoon constitutes an estuarine environment with a very particular behaviour and it is ecologically important due to its biological diversity. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the distribution and geochemical behaviour of several heavy metals in this coastal system, focusing on their distribution in both the dissolved phase (<0.45 μm) and the suspended particulate matter. Therefore, the general hydrochemical parameters (salinity, temperature, turbidity, pH and dissolved oxygen) and concentration of total particulate and dissolved metals (Cd, Cu, Ni, Zn, Fe, Pb, Cr and Mn) were measured along 2 years (2004–2006) at two different sites. As regards their distribution, hydrological parameters did not present any evidence of deviation with respect to historical values. Suspended particulate matter showed no seasonal variation or any relationship with the tide, thus indicating that in this shallow coastal lagoon neither tides nor freshwater sources regulate the particulate matter input. Heavy metals behaviour, both in dissolved and particulate phases did not reveal any relationship with tide or seasons. Mar Chiquita Coastal Lagoon showed a large input of dissolved and particulate metals, which is probably due to intensive agriculture within the drainage basin of this system.  相似文献   

Vertical deformation partitioning across a collapsing large and hot orogen     

F. A. Temporim  Ricardo Ivan Ferreirae da Trindade  Marcos Egydio-Silva  Tiago Valim Angelo  Eric Tohver  Caroline Cibele Soares  Lucas Pequeno Gouvêa  Julio Cesar Mendes  Silvia Regina Medeiros  Antônio Carlos Pedrosa-Soares  Gabriel Gomes Silva 《地学学报》2023,35(1):23-31

Featuring 3 000-km-long large and hot orogen, the Mantiqueira Province provides a rare opportunity to study the process of gravitational collapse at mid to deep crustal levels. Distinct but contemporary (~500 Ma) post-collisional intrusions show structures and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) fabrics related to their emplacements, recording different flow patterns. In southern deep-seated intrusions, ellipsoidal-shaped roots with gabbroic-to-hybrid cores surrounded by granitic rocks show concentric patterns of AMS fabrics that cut across the NE-trending regional foliation. In contrast, northern intrusions, exposed as the upper sections of batholith-size bodies of coarse-grained granite emplaced at the shallow to mid-crust, show general NS-trending magnetic fabrics roughly parallel to strike of the orogen and the regional foliation of host rocks. These contrasting magnetic patterns from shallow to deeper crust suggest vertical magma migration from the overthickened orogenic core to be emplaced across its thinner stretched flanks during the gravitational collapse of the orogenic edifice.  相似文献