Bayesian regression model for seasonal forecast of precipitation over Korea     

Seongil Jo  Yaeji Lim  Jaeyong Lee  Hyun-Suk Kang  Hee-Seok Oh 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2012,48(3):205-212

In this paper, we apply three different Bayesian methods to the seasonal forecasting of the precipitation in a region around Korea (32.5°N?C42.5°N, 122.5°E-132.5°E). We focus on the precipitation of summer season (June?CJuly?CAugust; JJA) for the period of 1979?C2007 using the precipitation produced by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) as predictors. Through cross-validation, we demonstrate improvement for seasonal forecast of precipitation in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) and linear error in probability space score (LEPS). The proposed methods yield RMSE of 1.09 and LEPS of 0.31 between the predicted and observed precipitations, while the prediction using GDAPS output only produces RMSE of 1.20 and LEPS of 0.33 for CPC Merged Analyzed Precipitation (CMAP) data. For station-measured precipitation data, the RMSE and LEPS of the proposed Bayesian methods are 0.53 and 0.29, while GDAPS output is 0.66 and 0.33, respectively. The methods seem to capture the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation. The Bayesian paradigm incorporates the model uncertainty as an integral part of modeling in a natural way. We provide a probabilistic forecast integrating model uncertainty.  相似文献   

Impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent in the austral summer     

Ji-Hyun Oh  Kwang-Yul Kim  Gyu-Ho Lim 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(5-6):1167-1180

This paper investigates the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the austral summer. For this purpose, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the tropical rainfall measuring mission rain rate and the Japanese Reanalysis-25 data for the period 1998–2008. The real-time multivariate MJO index by Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132:1917–1932, 2004) is adopted to define the intensity and the phase of MJO. It is demonstrated that the hourly maximum rain rate over the domain tends to increase when convectively active phase of MJO approaches the Maritime Continent. In contrast, the hourly maximum rain rate tends to decrease when convectively suppressed phase of MJO resides over the region. The changes in the rain rate due to MJO differ over the ocean and the land. This difference is the greatest when the MJO is in the mature stage. Throughout the day during this stage, terrestrial rain rates show minimum values while diurnally varying oceanic rain rates record maximum values. Thus, precipitation becomes more intense in the morning over the Java Sea and is weakened in the evening over Borneo and Sumatra during the mature stage of MJO. During the decaying stage of MJO over the Maritime Continent, the diurnal cycle of precipitation weakens significantly over the ocean but only weakly over land. Analyses suggest that the anomalous lower level winds accompanied by MJO interact with the monsoonal flow over the Maritime Continent. Westerlies induced by MJO convection in the mature stage are superimposed on the monsoonal westerlies over the equator and increase wind speed mainly over the Java Sea due to the blocking effect of orography. Mountainous islands induce flow bifurcation, causing near-surface winds to converge mainly over the oceanic channels between two islands. As a result, heat flux release from the ocean to the atmosphere is enhanced by the increased surface wind resulting in instability as described in the wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism. This may contribute to heavy rainfall over the Java Sea in the morning during the mature stage. On the other hand, convergence and vertical velocity over the islands, which play important roles in inducing nighttime rainfall, tend to be weak in the evening during the mature stage of MJO. Strong westerlies arising from MJO and the seasonal flow during the mature stage tend to interrupt convergence over islands. This interruption of convergence by MJO gives rise to decreased rain rates over the land regions.  相似文献   

Gap size effect on the tribological characteristics of the roller for deep-sea mining robot     

Jae-Won Oh  Hyung-Woo Kim  Sup Hong  Ki-Young Sung  Dae-Sung Bae 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2017,35(1):120-126

To design the deep-sea mining robot, it is essential to analyze the tribological characteristics of its roller. In this study, we introduced the dynamic simulation model to analyze the tribological characteristics of the roller for deep-sea mining robot, considering the temperature, viscosity, viscous damping force, and gap size between the inner and outer rib seals. Effective viscosity changes with gap size in micro/nanoscale while the effective viscosity is equal to the kinematic viscosity in macroscale. For the stable operation of the roller, the effective viscosity must be less than the critical viscosity. As the gap size decreases, the effective viscosity increases while the critical viscosity decreases. This study shows that the gap size between the inner and outer rib seals of roller is the most dominant factor in designing the roller for deep-sea mining robot to use at relatively low temperatures that are found in the deep-sea environments.  相似文献   

Estimation of undrained shear strength for saturated clay using shear wave velocity     

Tae-Min Oh  Eun-Seok Bang  Eui-Seob Park 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2017,35(2):236-244

Undrained shear strength is a fundamental parameter for estimating the stability of soft soils. This study explores the relationship between undrained shear strength, void ratio, and shear wave velocity for saturated and normally consolidated clay specimens. The undrained shear strength void ratio-shear wave velocity relationship was correlated to empirically determined parameters of selected marine clay specimens. To verify the proposed relationship between undrained shear strength and shear wave velocity, in situ flat dilatometer tests were used for determining the undrained shear strength, and downhole tests were used to assess the shear wave velocity on a natural soil deposit at various depths. The undrained shear strength estimated from the in situ shear wave velocities was compared to the undrained shear strength obtained in the field. The results show that the inferred undrained shear strength yield similar values and follow the same trends as the in situ undrained shear strength data. This method using shear wave velocity can help to nondestructively estimate the undrained shear strength of soft soils in the field and be used in both on-shore and off-shore geotechnical engineering projects.  相似文献   

Growth and reproduction of the Japanese mantis shrimp, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oratosquilla oratoria</Emphasis> (De Haan 1844) in the coastal area of Tongyeong,Korea     

SeongEun Kim  HanJu Kim  HoJin Bae  Hyeong-Gi Kim  Chul-Woong Oh 《Ocean Science Journal》2017,52(2):257-265

Growth and reproduction of the Japanese mantis shrimp, Oratosquilla oratoria, were investigated in the Tongyeong, Korea from July 2014 to August 2015. A total of 2,621 samples (1,380 females and 1,241 males) were collected during the study period. Females were observed more frequently than males. The mean body length (BL) was 128.5 ± 0.38 mm in females and 126.9 ± 0.42 mm in males. The mean body weight (BW) was 31.2 ± 0.28 g in females and 31.1 ± 0.32 g in males. There was a significant difference in the length-frequency distribution between females and males. The relationship between BL and BW was lnBW = 2.85 × lnBL - 10.43 for females and lnBW = 2.87 × lnBL -10.52 for males. The gonadosomatic index (GSI) varied on a monthly basis. The GSI reached a maximum in May and a minimum in November. The highest values of the GSI coincided with the spawning period of O. oratoria. Larger individuals of O. oratoria have their spawning season earlier than smaller ones. The size at sexual maturity of females was estimated as 96.5 mm. The Von Bertalanffy growth function parameters were BL_∞ = 184.5 mm, K = 0.72 year^?1, C = 0.36 and WP = 0.45 for females and BL_∞ = 183.75 mm, K = 0.82 year^?1, C = 0.38 and WP = 0.22 for males. The growth of males was slightly faster than females. The present study will help with the fisheries management of O. oratoria based on ecological parameters.  相似文献   

A time‐domain seismic SSI analysis method for inelastic bridge structures through the use of a frequency‐dependent lumped parameter model          下载免费PDF全文

Nikolaos Lesgidis  Oh‐Sung Kwon  Anastasios Sextos 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(13):2137-2156

It is highlighted in the past that the soil–structure interaction phenomenon can produce a significant alteration on the response of a bridge structure. A variety of approaches has been developed in the past, which is capable of tackling the soil–structure interaction problem from different perspectives. The popular approach of a discretized truncated finite element model of the soil domain is not always a numerically viable solution, especially for computationally demanding simulations such as the probabilistic fragility analysis of a bridge structure or the real time hybrid simulation. This paper aims to develop a complete modeling procedure that is capable of coping with the soil–structure interaction problem of inelastic bridge structures through the use of a frequency dependent lumped parameter assembly. The proposed procedure encounters accuracy and global stability issues observed on past methods while maintaining the broad applicability of the method by any commercial FEM software. A case study of an overpass bridge structure under earthquake excitations is illustrated in order to verify the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Toxicogenomic analysis of immune system-related genes in Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) exposed to heavy oil     

Nakayama K  Kitamura S  Murakami Y  Song JY  Jung SJ  Oh MJ  Iwata H  Tanabe S 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):445-452

Heavy oil contamination is one of the most important environmental issues. Toxicities of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), including immune toxicities, are well characterized, however, the immune toxic effects of heavy oil, as a complex mixture of PAHs, have not been investigated. In the present study, we selected Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) as a model organism, and observed alteration of immune function by the exposure to heavy oil. To analyze the expression profiles of immune system-related genes, we selected 309 cDNAs from our flounder EST library, and spotted them on a glass slide. Using this cDNA array, alteration of gene expression profiles was analyzed in the kidneys of flounders exposed to heavy oil. Six Japanese flounders (mean body weight: 197 g) were acclimated to laboratory conditions at 19-20 degrees C. Three fish were exposed to heavy oil C (bunker C) at a concentration of 3.8 g/L for 3 days, and the others were kept in seawater without heavy oil and used as the control. After the exposure period, the fish were transferred into control seawater and maintained for 4 days, and then they were dissected and their kidneys were removed. Total RNA was extracted from the kidney samples to use in gene expression analyses. The microarray detected alteration of immune system-related genes in the kidneys of heavy oil-exposed flounders, including down-regulation of immunoglobulin light chain, CD45, major histocompatibility complex class II antigens and macrophage colony-stimulating factor precursor, and up-regulation of interleukin-8 and lysozyme. These results suggest that pathogen resistance may be weakened in heavy oil-exposed fish, causing a subsequent bacterial infection, and then proinflammatory genes may be induced as a defensive response against the infection. Additionally, we found candidate genes for use as biomarkers of heavy oil exposure, such as N-myc downstream regulated gene 1 and heat shock cognate 71 kDa proteins.  相似文献   

A frequency‐dependent and intensity‐dependent macroelement for reduced order seismic analysis of soil‐structure interacting systems          下载免费PDF全文

Nikolaos Lesgidis  Anastasios Sextos  Oh‐Sung Kwon 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(11):2172-2194

The computational demand of the soil‐structure interaction analysis for the design and assessment of structures, as well as for the evaluation of their life‐cycle cost and risk exposure, has led the civil engineering community to the development of a variety of methods toward the model order reduction of the coupled soil‐structure dynamic system in earthquake regions. Different approaches have been proposed in the past as computationally efficient alternatives to the conventional finite element model simulation of the complete soil‐structure domain, such as the nonlinear lumped spring, the macroelement method, and the substructure partition method. Yet no approach was capable of capturing simultaneously the frequency‐dependent dynamic properties along with the nonlinear behavior of the condensed segment of the overall soil‐structure system under strong earthquake ground motion, thus generating an imbalance between the modeling refinement achieved for the soil and the structure. To this end, a dual frequency‐dependent and intensity‐dependent expansion of the lumped parameter modeling method is proposed in the current paper, materialized through a multiobjective algorithm, capable of closely approximating the behavior of the nonlinear dynamic system of the condensed segment. This is essentially the extension of an established methodology, also developed by the authors, in the inelastic domain. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is validated for the case of a bridge foundation system, wherein the seismic response is comparatively assessed for both the proposed method and the detailed finite element model. The above expansion is deemed a computationally efficient and reliable method for simultaneously considering the frequency and amplitude dependence of soil‐foundation systems in the framework of nonlinear seismic analysis of soil‐structure interaction systems.  相似文献   

Determination of ductility factor considering different hysteretic models     

Li Hyung Lee  Sang Whan Han  Young Hun Oh 《地震工程与结构动力学》1999,28(9):957-977

In current seismic design procedures, base shear is calculated by the elastic strength demand divided by the strength reduction factor. This factor is well known as the response modification factor, R, which accounts for ductility, overstrength, redundancy, and damping of a structural system. In this study, the R factor accounting for ductility is called the ‘ductility factor’, R_μ. The R_μ factor is defined as the ratio of elastic strength demand imposed on the SDOF system to inelastic strength demand for a given ductility ratio. The R_μ factor allows a system to behave inelastically within the target ductility ratio during the design level earthquake ground motion. The objective of this study is to determine the ductility factor considering different hysteretic models. It usually requires large computational efforts to determine the R_μ factor. In order to reduce the computational efforts, the R_μ factor is prepared as a functional form in this study. For this purpose, statistical studies are carried out using forty different earthquake ground motions recorded at a stiff soil site. The R_μ factor is assumed to be a function of the characteristic parameters of each hysteretic model, target ductility ratio and structural period. The effects of each hysteretic model to the R_μ factor are also discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Investigating the Effects of Different LED Wavelengths on Aggregation and Swimming Behavior of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus)     

Lee  Donggil  Oh  Wooseok  Gim  Byeong-Mo  Lee  Jung Suk  Yoon  Euna  Lee  Kyounghoon 《Ocean Science Journal》2019,54(4):573-579

Ocean Science Journal - Efficient fish aggregation systems are essential for catching chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), which is a major target of purse seine fisheries in South Korea. To aid the...  相似文献