An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Till Kuhlbrodt  Stefan Rahmstorf  Kirsten Zickfeld  Frode Bendiksen Vikebø  Svein Sundby  Matthias Hofmann  Peter Michael Link  Alberte Bondeau  Wolfgang Cramer  Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   

The study of instabilities in the solar wind and magnetosheath and their interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere     

Kate?ina Andréeová 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(7):888-890

The thesis concentrates on an analysis of the experimental data as well as numerical simulation of propagation of fast forward (FF) shocks in the solar wind and their evolution through the magnetosheath to the inner magnetosphere. The thesis was defended at the Charles University, Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Plasma and Surface Science (V Holesovickach 2, 180 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic) on September 30, 2008 under supervision of Doc. Lubomír P?ech. The thesis is written in English and a resume can be found at http://physics.mff.cuni.cz/kfpp/phd/andreeova.pdf.  相似文献   

The aperiodic broad-band X-ray variability of Cygnus X-3     

Magnus Axelsson  Stefan Larsson  Linnea Hjalmarsdotter 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,394(3):1544-1550

We study the soft X-ray variability of Cygnus X-3. By combining data from the All-Sky Monitor and Proportional Counter Array instruments on the RXTE satellite with EXOSAT /Medium Energy (ME) detector observations, we are able to analyse the power density spectrum (PDS) of the source from 10⁻⁹ to 0.1 Hz, thus covering time-scales from seconds to years. As the data on the longer time-scales are unevenly sampled, we combine traditional power spectral techniques with simulations to analyse the variability in this range. The PDS at higher frequencies  (≳10⁻³ Hz)  are for the first time compared for all states of this source. We find that it is for all states well described by a power law, with index  ∼−2  in the soft states and a tendency for a less steep power law in the hard state. At longer time-scales, we study the effect of the state transitions on the PDS, and find that the variability below  ∼10⁻⁷ Hz  is dominated by the transitions. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the length of a high/soft-state episode and the time since the previous high/soft state. On intermediate time-scales, we find evidence for a break in the PDS at time-scales of the order of the orbital period. This may be interpreted as evidence for the existence of a tidal resonance in the accretion disc around the compact object, and constraining the mass ratio to   M ₂/ M ₁≲ 0.3  .  相似文献   

Spectral analysis of the 91bg-like Type Ia SN 2005bl: low luminosity, low velocities, incomplete burning     

Stephan Hachinger  Paolo A. Mazzali  Stefan Taubenberger  Rüdiger Pakmor  Wolfgang Hillebrandt 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,399(3):1238-1254

The properties of underluminous Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) of the 91bg subclass have yet to be theoretically understood. Here, we take a closer look at the structure of the dim SN Ia 2005bl. We infer the abundance and density profiles needed to reproduce the observed spectral evolution between −6 d and  +12.9 d  with respect to B maximum. Initially, we assume the density structure of the standard explosion model W7; then we test whether better fits to the observed spectra can be obtained using modified density profiles with different total masses and kinetic energies. Compared to normal SNe Ia, we find a lack of burning products especially in the rapidly expanding outer layers  ( v ≳ 15 000 km s⁻¹)  . The zone between ∼8500 and 15 000 km s⁻¹ is dominated by oxygen and includes some amount of intermediate-mass elements. At lower velocities, intermediate-mass elements dominate. This holds down to the lowest zones investigated in this work. This fact, together with negligible-to-moderate abundances of Fe-group elements, indicates large-scale incomplete Si burning or explosive O burning, possibly in a detonation at low densities. Consistently with the reduced nucleosynthesis, we find hints of a kinetic energy lower than that of a canonical SN Ia: the spectra strongly favour reduced densities at  ≳13 000 km s⁻¹  compared to W7, and are very well fitted using a rescaled W7 model with original mass  (1.38 M_⊙)  , but a kinetic energy reduced by ∼30 per cent (i.e. from  1.33 × 10⁵¹  to  0.93 × 10⁵¹ erg  ).  相似文献   

Determination of masses of the central black holes in NGC 524 and 2549 using laser guide star adaptive optics     

Davor Krajnovi&#;  Richard M. McDermid  Michele Cappellari  Roger L. Davies 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,399(4):1839-1857

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A Century of Solar Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Measurements and Their Implication for Solar UV Driving of Climate     

Peter Foukal  Luca Bertello  William C. Livingston  Alexei A. Pevtsov  Jagdev Singh  Andrey G. Tlatov  Roger K. Ulrich 《Solar physics》2009,255(2):229-238

Spectroheliograms and disk-integrated flux monitoring in the strong resonance line of Ca ii (K line) provide the longest record of chromospheric magnetic plages. We compare recent reductions of the Ca ii K spectroheliograms obtained since 1907 at the Kodaikanal, Mt. Wilson, and US National Solar Observatories. Certain differences between the individual plage indices appear to be caused mainly by differences in the spectral passbands used. Our main finding is that the indices show remarkably consistent behavior on the multidecadal time scales of greatest interest to global warming studies. The reconstruction of solar ultraviolet flux variation from these indices differs significantly from the 20th-century global temperature record. This difference is consistent with other findings that, although solar UV irradiance variation may affect climate through influence on precipitation and storm tracks, its significance in global temperature remains elusive.  相似文献   

Melting and Sublimation of Planetary Ices Under Low Pressure Conditions: Laboratory Experiments with a Melting Probe Prototype     

Erika?Kaufmann  Günter?Kargl  Norbert?I.?K?mleEmail author  Manfred?Steller  Johann?Hasiba  Florian?Tatschl  Stefan?Ulamec  Jens?Biele  Marc?Engelhardt  Jens?Romstedt 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2009,105(1):11-29

One possibility to explore the subsurface layers of icy bodies is to use a probe with a “hot tip", which is able to penetrate ice layers by melting. Such probes have been built and used in the past for the exploration of terrestrial polar ice sheets and may also become useful tools to explore other icy layers in the Solar System. Examples for such layers are the polar areas of Mars or the icy crust of Jupiter’s moon Europa. However, while on Earth a heated probe launched into an ice sheet always causes melting with subsequent refreezing, the behaviour of such a probe in a low pressure environment is quite different. We report on the results of some experiments with a simple “melting probe" prototype with two different kinds of hot tips in a vacuum environment. For one of the tips the probe moved into two types of ice samples: (i) compact water ice and (ii) porous water ice with a snow (firn) like texture. It was also found that the penetration behaviour was basically different for the two sample types even when the same kind of tip was used. While in the porous sample the ice was only subliming, the phase changes occurring during the interaction of the tip with the compact ice are much more complex. Here alternating phases of melting and sublimation occur. The absence of the liquid phase has severe consequences on the performance of a “melting probe" under vacuum conditions: In this environment we find a high thermal resistance between the probe surface and the underlying ice. Therefore, only a low percentage of the heat that is generated in the tip is used to melt or sublime the ice, the bulk of the power is transferred towards the rear end of the probe. This is particularly a problem in the initial phases of an ice penetration experiment, when the probe has not yet penetrated the ice over its whole length. In the compact ice sample, phases could be observed, where a high enough gas pressure had built up locally underneath the probe, so that melting becomes possible. Only during these melting periods the thermal contact between the probe and the ice is good and in consequence the melting probe works effectively.  相似文献   

A multiphysics and multiscale software environment for modeling astrophysical systems     

Simon Portegies Zwart  Steve McMillan  Stefan Harfst  Derek Groen  Michiko Fujii  Breanndán Ó Nualláin  Evert Glebbeek  Douglas Heggie  James Lombardi  Piet Hut  Vangelis Angelou  Sambaran Banerjee  Houria Belkus  Tassos Fragos  John Fregeau  Evghenii Gaburov  Rob Izzard  Mario Jurić  Stephen Justham  Andrea Sottoriva  Marcel Zemp 《New Astronomy》2009,14(4):369-378

We present MUSE, a software framework for combining existing computational tools for different astrophysical domains into a single multiphysics, multiscale application. MUSE facilitates the coupling of existing codes written in different languages by providing inter-language tools and by specifying an interface between each module and the framework that represents a balance between generality and computational efficiency. This approach allows scientists to use combinations of codes to solve highly coupled problems without the need to write new codes for other domains or significantly alter their existing codes. MUSE currently incorporates the domains of stellar dynamics, stellar evolution and stellar hydrodynamics for studying generalized stellar systems. We have now reached a “Noah’s Ark” milestone, with (at least) two available numerical solvers for each domain. MUSE can treat multiscale and multiphysics systems in which the time- and size-scales are well separated, like simulating the evolution of planetary systems, small stellar associations, dense stellar clusters, galaxies and galactic nuclei. In this paper we describe three examples calculated using MUSE: the merger of two galaxies, the merger of two evolving stars, and a hybrid N-body simulation. In addition, we demonstrate an implementation of MUSE on a distributed computer which may also include special-purpose hardware, such as GRAPEs or GPUs, to accelerate computations. The current MUSE code base is publicly available as open source at http://muse.li.  相似文献   

Comparison of ladderane phospholipid and core lipids as indicators for anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) in marine sediments   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Andrea Jaeschke  Christine Rooks  Joanna C. Nicholls  Stefan Schouten 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(7):2077-2088

We investigated anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) in continental shelf and slope sediments of the Irish and Celtic Seas by using anammox specific ladderane biomarker lipids. We used the presence of an intact ladderane phospholipid as a direct indicator for living anammox bacteria, and compared it with the abundance of ladderane core lipids derived from both living and dead bacterial biomass. All investigated sediments contained ladderane core lipids as well as the intact ladderane phospholipid, in agreement with ¹⁵N-labeling experiments, which revealed anammox activity at all sites. Ladderane core lipid and intact ladderane phospholipid concentrations were significantly correlated (R² = 0.957 and 0.464, respectively) with anammox activity over the transect of the continental shelf and slope sediments. In the Irish Sea (50-100 m water depth) highest abundances of the intact ladderane phospholipid were found in the upper 2 cm of the sediment, indicating a zone of active anammox. A sharp decline further down-core suggested a strong decrease in anammox biomass and rapid degradation of the intact lipids. In comparison, ladderane core lipids were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher in concentration than the intact ladderane phospholipid and accumulated as dead cell remnants with depth. In the slope sediments of the Celtic Sea both ladderane core lipids and the intact ladderane phospholipid were found in sediments at water depths ranging from 500 to 2000 m. Here, anammox seemed to be active at greater depths of the sediment (>2 cm). Mean abundances of both intact and core ladderane lipids in whole sediment cores increased downslope, indicating an increasing importance of anammox in deeper slope sediments.  相似文献   

Reduced sulfur species in a stratified seawater lake (Rogoznica Lake, Croatia); seasonal variations and argument for organic carriers of reactive sulfur     

Elvira Bura-Naki?  Irena Ciglene?ki  Bo?ena ?osovi? 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(13):3738-154

Over a period of a year, Hg⁰-reactive, total reduced sulfur species (RSS_T), as well as a non-volatile fraction that cannot be gas-stripped at pH ∼2 (RSS_NV), have been measured by voltammetry in a stratified, saline lake. In the hypolimnion, RSS_T is dominated by unusually high (up to 5 mM) dissolved divalent sulfur (S^−II), present as H₂S + HS⁻ and as inorganic polysulfides (H_xS_n^x−2). Less abundant RSS_NV is attributed to dissolved zero-valent sulfur (S⁰) in inorganic polysulfides. Assuming negligible contribution of organic S⁰ species in the hypolimnion, the equilibrium distribution of polysulfide ions is calculated; S₅²⁻ is found to predominate. In the epilimnion, all RSS_T consists of RSS_NV within analytical uncertainty. Through spring and summer, RSS_T and RSS_NV display little vertical or seasonal variation, but they increase dramatically when stratification breaks down in autumn. Based on decay rate, RSS during mixing events is attributed to dissolved S₈ from oxidation of sulfide and decomposition of inorganic polysulfides. This hypothesis quantitatively predicts precipitation of elemental sulfur in a year when colloidal sulfur was observed and predicts no precipitation in a year when it was not observed. Except during mixing events, the entire water column is undersaturated with respect to both rhombic sulfur and biologic sulfur, and the limited variations of RSS exclude hydrophobic and volatile aqueous S₈ as a major species. During such periods, RSS (typically 8 nM) may be associated with organic carbon, perhaps as adsorbed S₈ or as covalently bound polysulfanes or polysulfides. The hypolimnion is viewed as a zero-valent sulfur reactor that creates S⁰-containing, dissolved organic macromolecules during stable stratification periods. Some are sufficiently degradation-resistant and hydrophilic to be dispersed throughout the lake during mixing events, subsequently giving rise to ∼10⁻⁸ M RSS in the oxic water column. Voltammetrically determined RSS in oxic natural waters has often been described as “sulfide” or “metal complexed sulfide”, implying an oxidation state of S^−II; we argue that RSS in oxic Rogoznica Lake waters is mainly S⁰.  相似文献