Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Dim Coumou  Alexander Robinson  Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):771-782

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献   

The earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α. Part I: description and performance for present-day conditions     

Marisa Montoya  Alexa Griesel  Anders Levermann  Juliette Mignot  Matthias Hofmann  Andrey Ganopolski  Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(2-3):327-328

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The Younger Dryas and Holocene climate record of a stalagmite from Hölloch Cave (Bavarian Alps,Germany     

Georg Wurth  Stefan Niggemann  Detlev K. Richter  Augusto Mangini 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(3):291-298

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Structure of the Keck Telescope — An overview     

Stefan J. Medwadowski 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1989,160(1-2):33-43

The structure of the Keck Telescope is briefly described. The design required an innovative approach made necessary by the revolutionary nature of the segmented primary mirror, by the very stringent weight and cost limitations, and by observational and operational needs. Analysis of a progressively more detailed computer model predicts that all design objectives will be met, as shown in a summary of performance characteristics. The paper is illustrated with a number of drawings.Paper presented at the Symposium on the JNLT and Related Engineering Developments, Tokyo, November 29–December 2 1988.  相似文献   

Phosphorus limitation of bacterial growth in high Arctic lakes and ponds   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Wilhelm?Granéli  Stefan?BertilssonEmail author  Aline?Philibert 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2004,66(4):430-439

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Tectonic evolution of the Brian?onnais units along a transect (ECORS-CROP) through the Italian-French Western Alps     

Stefan Bucher  Christina Ulardic  Romain Bousquet  Stefano Ceriani  Bernhard Fügenschuh  Yves Gouffon  Stefan M. Schmid 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2004,97(3):321-345

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The mesoscale convection life cycle: Building block or prototype for large-scale tropical waves?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Brian Mapes  Stefan Tulich  Jialin Lin  Paquita Zuidema 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2006,42(1-4):3

A cumulonimbus cloud may ascend and spawn its anvil cloud, precipitation, and downdrafts within an hour or so. This paper inquires why a similar progression of events (life cycle) is observed for tropical weather fluctuations with time scales of hours, days, and even weeks. Regressions using point data illustrate the characteristic unit of rain production: the mesoscale convective system (MCS), covering tens of kilometers and lasting several hours, with embedded convective rain cells. Meanwhile, averages over larger spatial areas indicate a self-similar progression from shallow to deep convection to stratiform anvils on many time scales.Synthetic data exercises indicate that simple superpositions of fixed-structure MCS life cycles (the Building Block hypothesis) cannot explain why longer period life cycles are similar. Rather, it appears that an MCS may be a small analogue or prototype of larger scale waves. Multiscale structure is hypothesized to occur via a Stretched Building Block conceptual model, in which the widths (durations) of zones of shallow, deep, and stratiform anvil clouds in MCSs are modulated by larger scale waves.Temperature (T) and humidity (q) data are examined and fed into an entraining plume model, in an attempt to elucidate their relative roles in these large-scale convection zone variations. T profile variations, with wavelengths shorter than troposphere depth, appear important for high-frequency ( 2–5-day period) convectively coupled waves, as density directly links convection (via buoyancy) and large-scale wave dynamics (via restoring force). Still, the associated q anomalies are several times greater than adiabatic, suggesting a strong amplification by shallow convective feedbacks. For lower frequency (intraseasonal) variability, q anomalies are considerably larger compared to T, and may be dominant.  相似文献   

Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke     

Alexander M. Heyng  Christoph Mayr  Andreas Lücke  Bernd Striewski  Stefan Wasteg?rd  Holger Wissel 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,48(2):351-366

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.  相似文献   

Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stefan Hastenrath 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):243-251

This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil’s Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March–April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century.  相似文献