Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Stefan Gössling  C. Michael Hall 《Climatic change》2006,79(3-4):163-173

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, “warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gössling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.  相似文献   

Sub-Milankovitch climatic cycles in Holocene stalagmites from Sauerland, Germany     

Stefan Niggemann  Augusto Mangini  Detlev K Richter 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2003,216(4):539-547

Calcitic stalagmites from caves in the Sauerland, Germany, prove the existence of sub-Milankovitch cycles in precipitation during the last 6000 yr. The δ¹⁸O record dated with Th/U is interpreted as an indicator of paleohumidity. Spectral analysis of δ¹⁸O from 6000 a BP up to the recent top of a stalagmite from the Atta cave yields statistically significant peaks at 1450, 117, 64 and 57 a. Additionally we find a good correlation of the stalagmite’s δ¹⁸O and Δ¹⁴C from European tree rings. The 1450 a cycle in the stalagmite probably is analogous to the pervasive millennial scale climate cycle described by Bond et al. [Science 278 (1997) 1257-1266; 294 (2001) 2130-2136] derived from the amount of ice rafted debris in deep sediments from the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that the centennial to millennial shifts observed in the North Atlantic are accompanied by synchronous shifts of the climate in Northern and Central Europe, which most probably can be attributed to solar irradiation variations.  相似文献   

Higher plant vegetation changes during Pliocene sapropel formation     

Diana Menzel  Stefan Schouten  Pim F. van Bergen  Jaap S. Sinninghe Damst 《Organic Geochemistry》2004,35(11-12):1343

The δ¹³C values of higher plant wax C_27–33 n-alkanes were determined in three, time-equivalent Pliocene (2.943 Ma) sapropels and homogeneous calcareous ooze from three different sites forming an east-west transect in the eastern Mediterranean Basin in order to study the composition of the vegetation on the continents surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. A two-end member mixing model transformed the measured δ¹³C values into the contribution of C₄ plants to the terrestrial vegetation. These calculations indicated a high C₄ plant contribution (i.e. 40–50%) in the periods just before and just after sapropel formation. During sapropel deposition the C₄ plant contribution increased by up to 20% at all sites. This is interpreted to record the increased overall plant coverage of the Mediterranean borderlands resulting from the change in formerly barren desert areas into C₄ grass-dominated savannahs as a response to the wetter climate during sapropel deposition. Enhanced accumulation rates (ARs) of long-chain n-alkanes (C_27–33) and n-alkan-1-ols (C_26–30) towards the middle of the sapropel in concert with a decrease in the Ti/Al ratio confirm an increased delivery of terrigenous organic matter at all sites. These biomarkers were probably predominantly fluvially transported to the Mediterranean Sea, not only by the Nile but by fossil wadi river systems on the northern African continent.  相似文献   

Design of sheet pile installation by vibration     

Stefan van Baars Baars 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2004,22(3):391-400

In The Netherlands 70% of the steel sheet piles are installed with vibrators. This is because vibrators have a high production rate and therefore a low installation cost. This method only works for soft peat and clay layers and saturated sand layers which are not densely compacted. During pile installation several problems might occur. In this paper the attention is paid to avoiding jamming of the pile before it has reached its planned depth. In most of these cases this is caused by a design error which has let to a vibrator which is too light. Over the years different design tools, such as computer models, design graphs and design equations, have been developed in order to predict the minimum required vibrator force. In this paper a new design equation is presented, which consists of three parts: the mass of the sheet pile, the friction along the shaft and the soil resistance at the tip of the pile based on the cone penetration resistance. This equation and several other design tools for sheet pile installation, have been compared with 18 field tests. It was found that the general design graphs of the Dutch Union of Foundation Contractors (NVAF), the design equation of the Dutch Civil Engineering Centre for Construction Research and Design Rules (CUR) and the German design equation of the EAU1996 gave very poor results. The computer model Vibdrive from Holeyman (1996), the design graphs for specific locations from the NVAF and the new presented design equation from the author gave reasonable predictions. Since the computer program is, because of its complexity, not regarded as a design tool for daily design work and the local design graphs only exist for a small number of locations in The Netherlands, the new design equation is according to the field tests the best method for the calculation of the vibrator needed for sheet pile installation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Renaturalization of streams and rivers — the special importance of integrated ecological methods in measurement of success. An example from Saxony-Anhalt (Germany)     

Volker Lüderitz  Robert Jüpner  Stefan Müller  Christian K. Feld 《Limnologica》2004,34(3):249-263

Since hydromorphology in about 80% of German streams and rivers is degraded to a high degree, increased efforts in hydromorphological renaturalization are necessary. A measurement of the success of the first realized projects shows that improvement in stream morphology has a remarkably positive influence on aquatic ecology. An example of a restored stretch of a lowland stream in Saxony-Anhalt is used to describe the possibilities of success measurement programs for improvement of poor renaturalization. Therefore, a combined morphological and hydrobiological approach was developed. An integrated ecological assessment is possible by using the multimetric index EQI_M (Ecological Quality Index using benthic Macroinvertebrates) and the GFI (German Fauna Index). The latter represents a tolerance measure to evaluate the hydromorphological status of a site by using certain taxa that indicate either positive or negative physical attributes. To consider the special characteristics of the stream in its landscape unit, specific reference conditions (‘Leitbild’) were defined for macroinvertebrate communities by sampling comparable but undisturbed streams in the same landscape unit. Only the combination of biological indices, hydromorphological mapping and comparison to the reference status allows for an expressive evaluation of renaturalization measures and precise conclusions for their improvement.  相似文献   

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer In An Arctic Wintertime On-Ice Air Flow     

Burghard Brümmer  Stefan Thiemann 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,104(1):53-72

A warm on-ice air flow from the open water over the Arctic sea ice in the Fram Straitwas, for the first time, systematically measured on 12 March 1998 by aircraft in thelowest 3 km over a 300-km long distance. The air mass modification and the processesinvolved are discussed.Over the water, air temperature was lower than water temperature so that a convectiveboundary layer (CBL) was present as initial condition. As soon as the CBL passed theice edge, a shallow stable internal boundary layer (IBL) was formed. In the residual CBL, turbulence and pre-existing convective clouds dissolved within about 20 km. Within about the same distance, due to the transition from unstable to stable stratification, the influence of surface friction increased in the IBL and decreased above the IBL with consequent generation of a low-level jet at IBL top. The IBL was strongly stratified with respect to both temperature and wind. The wind shear was around 0.1 s^-1 so that the Richardson number in the IBL was subcritical and turbulence was generated. The IBL top grew to about 145 m over 230 km distance. The growth of the IBL was not monotonic and was influenced by (a) inhomogeneous ice surface temperatures causedby both different ice thickness and changes in the cloud conditions, and (b) leads in theice deck. At the front side of the on-ice flow, the air mass boundary between the warmair and the cold Arctic air was sharp (12 K over 10 km) at low levels and tilted withheight. Observations suggest that the stratified IBL was lifted as a slab on top of thecold air.  相似文献   

Comparison of Five Eulerian Air Pollution Forecasting Systems for the Summer of 1999 Using the German Ozone Monitoring Data     

Stefan Tilmes  JØrgen Brandt  Frode FlatØy  Robert Bergström  Johannes Flemming  Joakim Langner  Jesper H. Christensen  Lise M. Frohn  Øystein Hov  Ingo Jacobsen  Eberthard Reimer  Rainer Stern  Jörg Zimmermann 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2002,42(1):91-121

Eulerian state-of-the-art air pollution forecasting systems on the European scale are operated routinely by several countries in Europe. DWD and FUB, both Germany, NERI, Denmark, NILU, Norway, and SMHI, Sweden, operate some of these systems. To apply such modeling systems, e.g. for regulatory purposes according to new EU directives, an evaluation and comparison of the model systems is fundamental in order to assess their reliability. One step in this direction is presented in this study: The model forecasts from all five systems have been compared to measurements of ground level ozone in Germany. The outstanding point in this investigation is the availability of a huge amount of data – from forecasts by the different model systems and from observations. This allows for a thorough interpretation of the findings and assures the significance of the observed features. Data from more than 300 measurement stations for a 5-month period (May–September 1999) of the German monitoring networks have been used in this comparison. Different spatial and temporal statistical parameters were applied in the evaluation. Generally, it was found that the most comprehensive models gave the best results. However, the less comprehensive and computational cheaper models also produced good results. The extensive comparison made it possible to point out weak points in the different models and to describe the individual model behavior for a full summer period in a climatological sense. The comparison also gave valuable information for an assessment of individual measurement stations and complete monitoring networks in terms of the representativeness of the observation data.  相似文献   

Development of the Côte d´Ivoire Basin: reading provenance,sediment dispersal,and geodynamic implications from heavy minerals     

Stefan Wozazek  Hannelore Krawinkel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2002,91(5):906-921

The combined approach of conventional and varietal heavy mineral analysis was applied to constrain changes in source rock area, dispersal routes of detritus, and geodynamic setting of the Upper Cretaceous to Neogene Côte d'Ivoire basin. The heavy mineral assemblage of Albian to Turonian sediments reflect a narrow source rock area and short transport distances. A prominent change in the heavy mineral association of Late Cenomanian to Neogene sediments indicates enlargement of source area and longer fluvial transport distances, or longer storage of sediment within the littoral energy fence. The sudden change within the heavy mineral associations marks the transition from the late syn-rift stage to the early passive margin stage of the Southern Atlantic. During Albian to Late Cenomanian time, the basin geometry was mainly controlled by steep slopes and sediments were transported directly to the depocenter. The situation changed in Late Cenomanian time. A small shelf area developed where sediments from different sources were mixed and reworked before deposition. We believe that the W-E direction of the long-shore drift, which transports today huge quantities of near-shore sand, was established at the end of the Paleogene. This resulted from the drifting of southern West Africa across the paleoequator and subsequent change in surface wind directions.  相似文献   

Stress and displacement analysis of boudinages by the finite-element method     

Stefan Selkman 《Tectonophysics》1978,44(1-4)

The paper deals with the displacement and stress distribution in boudinage structures. To analyze this, the finite-element method is used. Four models are examined.The first model treats three homogeneous bands. The displacement of the central band produces a barrel-shaped structure. The tension is greatest in the central part of this band and decreases almost continuously towards the shorter edges. If the band ruptures, the rupture will occur in the central part.The second model treats a quarter of a total structure that is already in part a developed boudinage. This development is followed through 19 iterative steps. The displacement analysis demonstrates that the boudin is displaced towards the free short edge and becomes more barrel-shaped, thinner and wider. The mean stress has two, local, tensilestress maxima inside the boudin at the upper boundary: one in the gap area and the other in the matrix at the outer, short edge of the boudin.The third model treats a quarter of a developed boudinage with two materials in the matrix. Displacement analyses demonstrate that the barrel shape of the boudin becomes more pronounced when the competence contrast between boudin and matrix decreases.One axis of principal stress has a direction in every element close to the x-axis of the model. In the area marked PbS (model 6A), this axis shows a local tensile-stress maximum and a local compressive-stress maximum. In model 6B, these points are still extreme points, but the local compressive-stress maximum has changed to a local tensile-stress maximum.The fourth model treats a boudinage in which one boudin is rotated. Displacement analyses demonstrate that the boudins tend to rotate to a position in which they are parallel, diverging a little from a right angle to the angle of the applied pressure. The mean stress demonstrates a pressure shadow in the PbS area, with a slight displacement downwards in the area beside the rotated boudin.The stress distribution corresponds to the mineral distribution of the boudinage from the Udden Mine. The investigation indicates a direct relationship between grain size and stress distribution.  相似文献   

On the role of eddy mechanisms in the meridional energy transports     

Dr. Stefan Hastenrath 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1968,17(2-3):114-124

Summary Meridional transports of sensible and latent heat associated with standing eddies were computed from climatic mean data, and are compared with information available in the literature. The standing eddy flux of latent heat has a main maximum in the latitude of the subtropical anticyclones, where longitudinal contrasts in the latent heat content of the atmosphere are also pronounced. The standing eddy flux of sensible heat has, in winter, a main maximum in the latitude of the subpolar lows, where marked land-sea contrasts in temperature occur. Longitudinal variations in the energy content of the atmosphere account for constrasts in the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of the standing eddy fluxes of sensible and latent heat.

---

Zusammenfassung Mit ortsfesten Störmechanismen verbundene Meridionaltransporte von fühlbarer und latenter Wärme werden auf Grund klimatologischer Daten berechnet und mit den in der Literatur verfügbaren Werten verglichen. Die Störungsbewegung von latenter Wärme hat ein Hauptmaximum in der Breitenlage der subtropischen Hochdruckzellen, wo auch die zonalen Unterschiede im latenten Wärmegehalt der Luft ausgeprägt sind. Die entsprechende Störungsbewegung der fühlbaren Wärme hat im Winter ein Hauptmaximum in der Breitenlage der subpolaren Tiefdruckgebiete, wo auch starke ozeanisch-kontinentale Temperaturgegensätze auftreten. Zonale Unterschiede im Energiegehalt der Atmosphäre bedingen breitenmäßige und jahreszeitliche Gegensätze in der Störungsbewegung von fühlbarer und latenter Wärme.

---

Résumé On calcule ici au moyen de données climatologiques les transports méridiens de chaleurs latente et sensible liés à des mécanismes perturbateurs immobiles. Les valeurs ainsi obtenues sont comparées à celles que l'on trouve dans la littérature. Le mouvement perturbateur de la chaleur latente a un maximum principal dans les latitudes des cellules anticycloniques subtropicales. C'est là aussi que l'on rencontre de grandes différences zonales du contenu de l'air en chaleur latente. Le mouvement perturbateur correspondant de la chaleur sensible a, en hiver, un maximum principal dans les latitudes des dépressions subpolaires où l'on rencontre aussi de fortes oppositions de températures entre les continents et les océans. Des différences zonales du contenu de l'atmosphère en énergie provoquent des contradictions saisonnières et en latitude du mouvement perturbateur des chaleurs latente et sensible.

---

---

With 4 Figures  相似文献