Sensitivity analyses of a distributed catchment model to verify the model structure   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Angela Sieber  Stefan Uhlenbrook   《Journal of Hydrology》2005,310(1-4):216-235

Sensitivity analyses are valuable tools for identifying important model parameters, testing the model conceptualization, and improving the model structure. They help to apply the model efficiently and to enable a focussed planning of future research and field measurement. Two different methods were used for sensitivity analyses of the complex process-oriented model TAC^D (tracer aided catchment model, distributed) that was applied to the meso-scale Brugga basin (40 km²) and the sub-basin St Wilhelmer Talbach (15.2 km²). Five simulations periods were investigated: two summer events, two snow melt induced events and one summer low flow period. The model was applied using 400 different parameter sets, which were generated by Monte Carlo simulations using latin hypercube sampling. The regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) allowed determining the most significant parameters for the complete simulation periods using a graphical method. The results of the regression-based sensitivity analysis were more detailed and complex. The temporal variability of the simulation sensitivity could be observed continuously and the significance of the parameters could be determined in a quantitative way. A dependency of the simulation sensitivity on initial- and boundary conditions and the temporal and spatial variability of the sensitivity to some model parameters was revealed by the regression-based sensitivity analysis. Thus, the difficulty of transferring the results to different time periods or model applications in other catchments became obvious. The analysis of the temporal course of the simulation sensitivity to parameter values in conjunction with simulated and measured additional data sets (precipitation, temperature, reservoir volumes etc.) gave further insight into the internal model behaviour and demonstrated the plausibility of the model structure and process conceptionalizations.  相似文献   

Palaeolimnology of Lake Zeribar, Iran, and its climatic implications     

Krystyna Wasylikowa  Andrzej Witkowski  Adam Walanus  Andrzej Hutorowicz  Stefan W. Alexandrowicz  Jerzy J. Langer 《Quaternary Research》2006,66(3):477-493

Lake Zeribar sediments covering the time period of the last 25,000 years were examined for the contents of seeds, fruits, Characeae, diatoms, and molluscs. Reconstructions of the variations in the lake water level, salinity, and trophy suggest a sequence of climatic changes. Three pronounced stages of low and varying lake-water level occurred ca. 17,700–15,400, 12,600–12,000, and 10,000–6000 cal yr BP. Some water-level changes were correlated with variations in salinity. The most pronounced increase of salinity occurred 17,700–15,700 and 12,600–12,000 cal yr BP, and less distinct ones occurred about 6400–5900 and 2500 cal yr BP. Diatom assemblages indicated a strong increase of lake trophy ca. 20,200 cal yr BP. Between 6000 and 5000 cal yr BP diatoms characteristic of eutrophy increased in core 63J, and at about 3200 cal yr BP a distinct increase in mesotrophic forms occurred in core 70B. The changes in the occurrence of various organisms indicate increased temperatures about 21,000 cal yr BP, between 15,400 and 12,600, about 12,000, and about 11,700 cal yr BP. The reduced occurrence or disappearance of some of them suggest temperature decreases about 17,700–15,400 and 12,600–12,000 cal yr BP.  相似文献   

Rare earth element partitioning between titanite and silicate melts: Henry’s law revisited     

Stefan Prowatke  Stephan Klemme 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2006,70(19):4997-5012

We present detailed experimental results on the partitioning of rare earth elements (REE) between titanite and a range of different silicate melts. Our results show that Henry’s law of trace element partitioning depends on bulk composition, the available partners for heterovalent substitution, crystal composition, and melt composition. We illustrate that the partition coefficients for Sm depend very strongly on the bulk concentration of Sm in the system. The substitution mechanism, by which rare earth elements are incorporated into the crystal structure, plays an important role for trace element partitioning and also for the onset of Henry’s law. Our data show that there are clear differences between substitution mechanisms of major elements compared to elements which are present only as traces. Our experiments also clearly show that the onset of Henry’s law depends on the concentrations of the sum of all trace elements which are incorporated into the crystal by the same substitution mechanism. For geochemical modelling of magmatic processes involving titanite, and indeed other accessory phases, it is of crucial importance to first evaluate whether the REE, and other trace elements, are present as traces or as major elements, only then appropriate D values may be chosen.  相似文献   

Impact of mechanical anisotropy and power-law rheology on single layer folding   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Thomas Kocher  Stefan M. Schmalholz  Neil S. Mancktelow   《Tectonophysics》2006,421(1-2):71-87

The infinitesimal and finite stages of folding in nonlinear viscous material with a layer-parallel anisotropy were investigated using numerical and analytical methods. Anisotropy was found to have a first-order effect on growth rate and wavelength selection, and these effects are already important for anisotropy values (normal viscosity/shear viscosity) < 10. The effect of anisotropy must therefore be considered when deducing viscosity contrasts from wavelength to thickness ratios of natural folds. Growth rates of single layer folds were found to increase and subsequently decrease during progressive deformation. This is due to interference between the single layer folds and chevron folds that form in the matrix as a result of instability caused by the anisotropic material behaviour. The wavelength of the chevron folds in the matrix is determined by the wavelength of the folded single layer, which can explain the high wavelength to thickness ratios that are sometimes found in multilayer sequences. Numerical models including anisotropic material properties allow the behaviour of multilayer sequences to be investigated without the need for resolution on the scale of individual layers. This is particularly important for large-scale models of layered lithosphere.  相似文献   

Mineralogical and geochemical patterns of urban surface soils, the example of Pforzheim, Germany   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Stefan Norra  Mahesh Lanka-Panditha  Utz Kramar  Doris Stüben 《Applied Geochemistry》2006,21(12):2064-2081

This study presents a combined geochemical and mineralogical survey of urban surface soils. Many studies on urban soils are restricted to purely chemical surveys in order to investigate soil pollution caused by anthropogenic activities such as traffic, heating, industrial processing, waste disposal and many more. In environmental studies, chemical elements are often distinguished as lithogenic and anthropogenic elements. As a novel contribution to those studies, the authors combined the analysis of a broad set of chemical elements with the analysis of the main mineralogical phases. The semi-quantification of mineralogical phases supported the assignment of groups of chemical elements to lithogenic or anthropogenic origin. Minerals are important sinks for toxic elements. Thus, knowledge about their distribution in soils is crucial for the assessment of the environmental hazards due to pollution of urban soils. In Pforzheim, surface soils (0–5 cm depth) from various land use types (forest, agriculture, urban green space, settlement areas of various site densities) overlying different geological units (clastic and chemical sediments) were investigated. Urban surface soils of Pforzheim reflect to a considerable degree the mineral and chemical composition of parent rocks. Irrespective of the parent rocks, elevated concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, Cu, Pb, Sn, Ag) were found in soils throughout the whole inner urban settlement area of Pforzheim indicating pollution. These pollutants will tend to accumulate in inner urban surface soils according to the available adsorption capacity, which is normally higher in soils overlying limestone than in soils overlying sandstone. However, inner urban surface soils overlying sandstone show elevated concentrations of carbonates, phyllo-silicates and Fe and elevated pH values compared with forest soils overlying sandstone. Thus, in comparison to forest soils overlying sandstones, inner urban soils overlying sandstone affected by pollution concurrently possess elevated concentrations of mineral phases typically providing relatively high adsorption capacities for heavy metals.  相似文献   

Signal restoration through deconvolution applied to deep mantle seismic probes     

W. Stefan  E. Garnero  R. A. Renaut 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1353-1362

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Multi-stage thrusting at the "Penninic Front" in the Western Alps between Mont Blanc and Pelvoux massifs     

Stefano Ceriani  Bernhard Fügenschuh  Stefan M. Schmid 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2001,90(3):685-702

The different segments of the tectonic boundary between external (European) and internal (Penninic) units in the Western Alps, the so-called Penninic Front (PF), formed at different times and according to different kinematic scenarios. During a first episode (Eocene), the PF corresponds to a transpressive suture zone between Penninic and European units. North- to NNW-trending stretching lineations, found along internal nappe contacts within the Penninic units, are related to this episode. This subduction zone was sealed by the Priabonian flysch of the Aiguilles d'Arves, a detrital trench formation that formed during the final stages of subduction. During a second episode, starting in mid-Oligocene times, the PF, imaged along the ECORS-CROP profile, acted as a WNW-directed thrust. This thrust, the Roselend Thrust (RT), only partially coincides with the PF. South of Moûtiers, the RT propagates into the Dauphinois units, carrying the former Eocene PF (including the Priabonian flysch) passively in its hangingwall. South of the Pelvoux massif the RT finds its continuation along the "Briançonnais Front", an out-of-sequence thrust behind the Embrunais-Ubaye nappes. On a larger scale, our findings indicate oblique (sinistral) collision within the future Western Alps during the Eocene, followed by westward indentation of the Adriatic block.  相似文献   

Mo and U Isotope Evidence of Ocean Euxinia during the End-Permian Mass Extinction     

Juan Carlos SILVA-TAMAYO  Stefan WEYER  Paul B. WIGNALL  Jonathan L. PAYNE  Robert J.NEWTON  Nadjia NEUBERT  Annika BRUESKE  Kimberly LAU  Katharine MAHER 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):903-903

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Fission-track constraints on the thermal and tectonic evolution of the Apuseni Mountains (Romania)     

Alexandre Kounov  Stefan M. Schmid 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,102(1):207-233

New zircon and apatite fission-track (FT) data, including apatite thermal modelling, are combined with an extensive literature survey and reconnaissance-type structural fieldwork in the Eastern Apuseni Mountains. This leads to a better understanding of the complex structural and thermal history of a key area at the boundary between two megatectonic units in the Balkan peninsula, namely the Tisza and Dacia Mega-Units. Following Late Jurassic obduction of the Transylvanian ophiolites onto a part of the Dacia Mega-Unit, that is, the Biharia nappe system, both units were buried to a minimum of 8 km during late Early Cretaceous times when these units were underthrust below the Tisza Mega-Unit consisting of the present-day Codru and Bihor nappe systems. Tisza formed the upper plate during Early Cretaceous (‘Austrian’) east-facing orogeny. Turonian to Campanian zircon FT cooling ages (95–71 Ma) from the Bihor and Codru nappe systems and the Biharia and Baia de Arie? nappes (at present the structurally lowest part of the Dacia Mega-Unit) record exhumation that immediately followed a second Cretaceous-age (i.e. Turonian) orogenic event. Thrusting during this overprinting event was NW-facing and led to the overall geometry of the present-day nappe stack in the Apuseni Mountains. Zircon FT ages, combined with thermal modelling of the apatite FT data, show relatively rapid post-tectonic cooling induced by a third shortening pulse during the latest Cretaceous (‘Laramian’ phase), followed by slower cooling across the 120°–60 °C temperature interval during latest Cretaceous to earliest Paleogene times (75–60 Ma). Cenozoic-age slow cooling (60–40 Ma) was probably related to erosional denudation postdating ‘Laramian’ large-scale updoming.  相似文献   

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012     

Tobias Diehl  Nicholas Deichmann  John Clinton  Stephan Husen  Toni Kraft  Katrin Plenkers  Benjamin Edwards  Carlo Cauzzi  Clotaire Michel  Philipp Kästli  Stefan Wiemer  Florian Haslinger  Donat Fäh  Urs Kradolfer  Jochen Woessner 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2013,106(3):543-558

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012. During this period, 497 earthquakes and 88 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 13 events with M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2012 was far below the average over the previous 37 years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Filisur (GR) in January with two events of M_L 3.3 and 3.5, the M_L 4.2 and M_L 3.5 earthquakes at a depth of 32 km below Zug in February and the M_L 3.6 event near Vallorcine in October. The epicentral intensity of the M_L 4.2 event close to Zug was IV, with a maximum intensity of V reached in a few areas, probably due to site amplification effects.  相似文献