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Lise Byskov Herslund Fatemeh Jalayer Nathalie Jean-Baptiste Gertrud Jørgensen Sigrun Kabisch Wilbard Kombe Sarah Lindley Patrik Karlsson Nyed Stephan Pauleit Andreas Printz Trond Vedeld 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):149-172
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation. 相似文献
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Many ecosystem services are in decline. Local ecological knowledge and associated practice are essential to sustain and enhance ecosystem services on the ground. Here, we focus on social or collective memory in relation to management practice that sustains ecosystem services, and investigate where and how ecological practices, knowledge and experience are retained and transmitted. We analyze such social–ecological memory of allotment gardens in the Stockholm urban area, Sweden. Allotment gardens support ecosystem services such as pollination, seed dispersal and pest regulation in the broader urban landscape. Surveys and interviews were preformed over a four-year period with several hundreds of gardeners. We found that the allotment gardens function as communities-of-practice, where participation and reification interact and social–ecological memory is a shared source of resilience of the community by being both emergent and persistent. Ecological practices and knowledge in allotment gardens are retained and transmitted by imitation of practices, oral communication and collective rituals and habits, as well as by the physical gardens, artifacts, metaphors and rules-in-use (institutions). Finally, a wider social context provides external support through various forms of media, markets, social networks, collaborative organizations, and legal structures. We exemplify the role of urban gardens in generating ecosystem services in times of crisis and change and conclude that stewards of urban green areas and the social memory that they carry may help counteract further decline of critical ecosystem services. 相似文献
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Sandy P Harrison 《Climate Dynamics》1989,3(3):157-167
Changes in lake levels during the last 12000 years in eastern North America show spatially coherent patterns, implying climatic control. Conditions were generally wetter than today during the late glacial, becoming more arid towards 6000 years BP when most lakes were low. Lakes rose after 6000 years BP, reaching modern levels by about 3000 years BP. These palaeohydrological changes broadly agree with simulated changes in moisture balance derived from experiments with the NCAR Community Climate Model (Kutzbach and Guetter 1986) with changing orbital parameters and lower boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and ice extent). However, the model simulates maximum aridity at 9000 years BP. Data and model show broadly similar spatial patterns, implying that the lake-level changes can be explained by the changing boundary conditions and their effects on atmospheric circulation. At 12000 years BP most lakes were high because of increased precipitation along the jet-stream storm-track south of the ice sheet. By 9000 years BP, with the much reduced ice sheet, many lakes along the eastern seaboard and in the southeast were lower than present because of greater evaporation due to high summer insolation. The warming of the continental interior generated an enhanced monsoon low in the southwest, causing increased southerly flow which helped to maintain higher lakes in the Midwest. Dry conditions spread eastwards across the Midwest between 9000 and 6000 years BP. This effect is not shown by the model, which continues to bring monsoonal precipitation into the Midwest while simulating enhanced westerly flow and drier conditions further to the west. Such displacements of circulation features are unimportant at the continental scale, but could be significant if general circulation models are used for regionalscale predictions of changes in the moisture balance. 相似文献
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Oscar M. Lovera Matthew T. Heizler T. Mark Harrison 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1993,113(3):381-393
Viewing K-feldspars as containing a discrete distribution of diffusion domain sizes reconciles otherwise disconsonant features common in their 40Ar/39Ar age spectra and Arrhenius plots but raises a fundamental question. What are the features in K-feldspar that endow it with this behavior? We report here the results of two different kinds of experiments that help isolate the nature of the responsible diffusion properties. To assess the thermal stability of the diffusion domains during laboratory treatment, MH-10 K-feldspar was step-heated to 850°C, removed from the furnace and split. One split was reirradiated and the other returned to the furnace and completely degassed. Following re-irradiation, the original heating schedule was used to degas the second aliquot. Apart from the first 5% of gas released, the diffusion properties show little change relative to the original result but, it appears, the physical character of a portion of the smallest domain has been altered. Results of duplicate step-heating experiments of samples treated at 750°C, 950°C and 1100°C prior to irradiation are consistent with the conclusions of the double irradiation experiment. In a second series of experiments, sized aggregates of MH-10 K-feldspar were analyzed by the 40Ar/39Ar step-heating method. The resultant log(r/r o) plots reveal that the largest domain is annihilated when the particle size is reduced to about 50 μm. From this result we infer that the largest diffusion domain size is between 60 and about 130 μm in diameter. This estimate, together with knowledge of the relative domain size distribution obtained from modeling the log(r/r o) plot, sets the size of the smallest domain to be less than about 1 μm. Microstructural examination of MH-10 K-feldspar identifies sub-grain features that correspond in size to our independent estimates for the largest and smallest diffusion domains. These results strongly support the view that low-temperature K-feldspars contain a distribution of diffusion length scales that are well approximated as discrete domain sizes and that laboratory heating below the onset of melting does not significatly affect the ability to obtain thermal reconstructions from the 40Ar/39Ar systematics. 相似文献
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The behavior of apatite during crustal anatexis: Equilibrium and kinetic considerations 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
The solubility and dissolution kinetics of apatite in felsic melts at 850°–1500°C have been examined experimentally by allowing apatite crystals to partially dissolve into apatite-undersaturated melts containing 0–10 wt% water. Analysis of P and Ca gradients in the crystal/melt interfacial region enables determination of both the diffusivities and the saturation levels of these components in the melt. Phosphorus diffusion was identified as the rate-limiting factor in apatite dissolution. Results of four experiments at 8 kbar run in the virtual absence of water yield an activation energy (E) for P diffusion of 143.6 ± 2.8 kcal-mol?1 and frequency factor (D0) of 2.23+2.88?1.26 × 109cm2-sec?1. The addition of water causes dramatic and systematic reduction of both E and D0 such that at 6 wt% H2O the values are ~25 kcal-mol?1 and 10?5 cm2-sec?1, respectively. At 1300°C, the diffusivity of P increases by a factor of 50 over the first 2% of water added to the melt, but rises by a factor of only two between 2 and 6%, perhaps reflecting the effect of a concentration-dependent mechanism of H2O solution. Calcium diffusion gradients do not conform well to simple diffusion theory because the release of calcium at the dissolving crystal surface is linked to the transport rate of phosphorus in the melt, which is typically two orders of magnitude slower than Ca. Calcium chemical diffusion rates calculated from the observed gradients are about 50 times slower than calcium tracer diffusion.Apatite solubilities obtained from these experiments, together with previous results, can be described as a function of absolute temperature (T) and melt composition by the expression: In Dapatite/meltP = [(8400 + ((SiO2 ? 0.5)2.64 × 104))/T] ? [3.1 + (12.4(SiO2 ? 0.5))] where SiO2 is the weight fraction of silica in the melt. This model appears to be valid between 45% and 75% SiO2, 0 and 10% water, and for the range of pressures expected in the crust.The diffusivity information extracted from the experiments can be directly applied to several problems of geochemical interest, including I) dissolution times for apatite during crustal anatexis, and 2) pileup of P, and consequent local saturation in apatite, at the surfaces of growing major-mineral phases. 相似文献
50.
Taiwan is located in the axis of the Manila Trench. It results from an oblique collision between the northernmost part of the Luzon arc and the Chinese passive margin. This active collision follows the subduction of the Oligocene-Miocene oceanic crust of the South China Sea along the Manila Trench. The tectonized Chinese margin emerged in the Hengchun peninsula (South Taiwan). Gentle folds which are delineated by the Quaternary reefal limestones demonstrate Recent deformations. These folds deformed a thick detrital sequence of Miocene age (Ssuchung Chi series) which was previously strongly folded and thrust westward (axis NS-N20) upon the Renting mélange of Latest Miocene age. These main deformations, sealed by the Middle Pliocene, are the evidence for the onset of collision in this part of Taiwan at the end of the Miocene. Because of its obliquity, the collision started already in the northern part of Taiwan during the Late Miocene (6-7-8 Ma ?).The Ssuchung Chi series, a sequence of proximal turbidites, has contained, since the Middle Miocene (NN 6~13 Ma), fragments of an Oligocene to Lower Miocene oceanic crust. This ophiolitic material is very similar to the East Taiwan Ophiolite of the Coastal Range. It originated most probably from a slice of South China Sea crust obducted in Middle Miocene times (13–14 Ma) upon the Chinese margin (North of the Hengchun peninsula). This obduction occurred 7 to 8 Ma before the beginning of collision. These results make it possible to propose an evolutionary model for Taiwan from the Oligocene to the Recent, with the different phases of a collision between a volcanic arc and a passive margin. 相似文献