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11.
12.
Alix Lombard Anny Cazenave Pierre Yves Le Traon Stephanie Guinehut Cécile Cabanes 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):445-451
In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous
location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the
observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church
et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions.
However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part
(about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion
was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate
of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using
a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global
gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric
sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both
time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs
to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise.
Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third
assessment report. 相似文献
13.
Records of hydrologic parameters, especially those parameters that are directly linked to air temperature, were analyzed to
find indicators of recent climate warming in Minnesota, USA. Minnesota is projected to be vulnerable to climate change because
of its location in the northern temperate zone of the globe. Ice-out and ice-in dates on lakes, spring (snowmelt) runoff timing,
spring discharge values in streams, and stream water temperatures recorded up to the year 2002 were selected for study. The
analysis was conducted by inspection of 10-year moving averages, linear regression on complete and on partial records, and
by ranking and sorting of events. Moving averages were used for illustrative purposes only. All statistics were computed on
annual data.
All parameters examined show trends, and sometimes quite variable trends, over different periods of the record. With the exception
of spring stream flow rates the trends of all parameters examined point toward a warming climate in Minnesota over the last
two or three decades. Although hidden among strong variability from year to year, ice-out dates on 73 lakes have been shifting
to an earlier date at a rate of −0.13 days/year from 1965 to 2002, while ice-in dates on 34 lakes have been delayed by 0.75
days/year from 1979 to 2002. From 1990 to 2002 the rates of change increased to −0.25 days/year for ice-out and 1.44 days/year
for ice-in. Trend analyses also show that spring runoff at 21 stream gaging sites examined occurs earlier. From 1964 to 2002
the first spring runoff (due to snowmelt) has occurred −0.30 days/year earlier and the first spring peak runoff −0.23 days/year
earlier. The stream water temperature records from 15 sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area shows warming by
0.11∘C/year, on the average, from 1977 to 2002. Urban development may have had a strong influence. The analysis of spring stream
flow rates was inconclusive, probably because runoff is linked as much to precipitation and land use as to air temperature.
Ranking and sorting of annual data shows that a disproportionately large number of early lake ice-out dates has occurred after
1985, but also between 1940 and 1950; similarly late lake ice-in has occurred more frequently since about 1990. Ranking and
sorting of first spring runoff dates also gave evidence of earlier occurrences, i.e. climate warming in late winter.
A relationship of changes in hydrologic parameters with trends in air temperature records was demonstrated. Ice-out dates
were shown to correlate most strongly with average March air temperatures shifting by −2.0 days for a 1°C increase in March air temperature. Spring runoff dates also show a relationship with March air temperatures; spring runoff
dates shift at a rate of −2.5 days/1°C minimum March air temperature change. Water temperatures at seven river sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area
show an average rise of 0.46°C in river temperature/1°C mean annual air temperature change, but this rate of change probably includes effects of urban development.
In conclusion, records of five hydrologic parameters that are closely linked to air temperature show a trend that suggests
recent climate warming in Minnesota, and especially from 1990 to 2002. The recent rates of change calculated from the records
are very noteworthy, but must not be used to project future parameter values, since trends cannot continue indefinitely, and
trend reversals can be seen in some of the long-term records. 相似文献
14.
Charles F. Rabeni Kevin J. Collier Stephanie M. Parkyn Brendan J. Hicks 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(5):693-700
We evaluated several capture and analysis techniques for estimating abundance and size structure of freshwater crayfish (Paranephrops planifrons) (koura) from a forested North Island, New Zealand stream to provide a methodological basis for future population studies. Direct observation at night and collecting with baited traps were not considered useful. A quadrat sampler was highly biased toward collecting small individuals. Handnetting at night and estimating abundances using the depletion method were not as efficient as handnetting on different dates and analysing by a mark‐recapture technique. Electrofishing was effective in collecting koura from different habitats and resulted in the highest abundance estimates, and mark‐recapture estimates appeared to be more precise than depletion estimates, especially if multiple recaptures were made. Handnetting captured more large crayfish relative to electrofishing or the quadrat sampler. 相似文献
15.
Thermochronometric constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Serifos detachment, Aegean Sea, Greece 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stephanie Brichau Stuart Thomson Uwe Ring 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(2):379-393
We constrain the timing and kinematics of the Serifos detachment in the southwestern Cyclades, Greece, using low-temperature
thermochronometry. Fission-track dating shows that the Serifos detachment was active between ~13 and 6 Ma and that the Serifos
granodiorite in its footwall intruded at or before ~12–11 Ma into the extensional shear zone and initially cooled very rapidly
at rates >180°C per million year. The mylonite zone at the top of the granodiorite and mylonitic structures in its country
rocks record a consistent top-SSW shear sense in the ductile crust. In the brittle regime top-NNE shear-sense indicators occur
as well. Conjugate top-SSW and top-NNE high-angle normal faults are the youngest deformational features and cut across the
detachment. Age–distance relationships for the fission-track data display a relatively flat pattern. We discuss a model advocating
initial top-SSW movement on the Serifos detachment before and during emplacement of the granodiorite. Updoming of the detachment
during exhumation and cooling caused subsequent bivergent extension in the brittle crust. 相似文献
16.
Stephanie Hänsel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):223-235
Changes in the persistence of dry and wet periods are of particular interest for many sectors, as long-term deviations from normal precipitation strongly affect the water availability. Here, an indicator is introduced to explore variability and trends of long-lasting dry and wet periods by using decile based thresholds. The test of three different thresholds for ending those periods revealed only slight influences of the chosen threshold on the spatiotemporal pattern and trends. The methodology of the deciles indicator is illustrated and studied exemplarily for a spatially highly resolved data set for Saxony, Germany within 1901–2010. Within that region decile wet and dry periods, respectively, occur approximately four times within 10 years, last on average 11 months and cover on average more than 35 % of the stations. Several years to decades long periods with particularly frequent and/or long decile dry or wet periods were identified. The computed trends strongly depend upon the analysis period, as frequency, duration and spatial coverage of decile periods show strong variations up to multi-decadal time scales. Nonetheless, there is some indication that dry period coverage increased within the 20th century, while wet period coverage decreased. However, in the most recent decades the long-term trends reversed. 相似文献
17.
The current study focuses on understanding key factors controlling geochemical export in eight diverse coastal watersheds at seasonal and annual time scales. Geochemical, atmospheric and hydrologic data across a range of hydro‐climatic regimes and varying land uses were investigated and relationships analysed. A hyperbolic dilution model was fitted for each watershed system to evaluate discharge–concentration relationships. Nitrate concentration effects were observed in watersheds exposed to high atmospheric deposition rates as well as agricultural watersheds, whereas urban watersheds showed nitrate dilution effects. Dilution patterns were observed for calcium, magnesium and sulfate for almost all watersheds. Seasonal loads for almost all constituents were noted to be mainly driven by hydrologic seasonality, but are also dependent on inputs (atmospheric deposition and land use sources). Understanding the primary controls on hydro‐chemical interactions is critical for developing and refining predictive water quality models, especially in coastal watersheds where sensitive downstream ecosystems act as receiving waters for upstream pollutant loads. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Surface-structure-controlled sectoral zoning of the rare earth elements in fluorite from Long Lake, New York, and Bingham, New Mexico, USA 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stephanie BoszeJohn Rakovan 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(6):997-1009
The concentration and distribution of rare earth elements (REE) in sectorally zoned fluorite crystals from Long Lake, New York, and the Hansonburg Mining District, Bingham, New Mexico, have been studied using cathodoluminescence and synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microanalysis (SXRFMA). In cubo-octahedral samples from Long Lake, New York, Ce, Nd, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er, and Tm are preferentially partitioned into the |111| sector relative to the |100| sector. Partition coefficients (Kd = concentration in |111| sector/concentration in |100| sector) range between 3.5 for Ce, to 1.4 for Tm, with a general decrease in Kd as elements deviated from the ionic radius of Ca2+, for which REE substitute in fluorite. Diffusion of the REE has occurred, as evidenced by gradual changes in composition over distances of 0.2 to 0.3 mm at sector boundaries.In Bingham samples, three different partition coefficients were determined for Dy: Kd|100|/|111| = 2.83, Kd |100|/|110| = 1.77, and Kd |110|/|111| = 1.60. These are mean Kd values for a 95% confidence interval. In another sample from the same deposit, Dy, Er, and Gd were found to be preferentially incorporated into the |100| sector relative to the |210| sector with average Kd |100|/|210| of 3.1, 2.4, and 2.9, respectively. In a third sample, Nd was found to be preferentially incorporated into the |110| sector relative to the |321| sector with an average Kd |110|/|321| value of 2.3.Compositional heterogeneities in a given sector (concentric zoning) have been resolved using SXRFMA but are significantly less than the concentration difference across sector boundaries. Often fluorite exists in a wide variety of morphologies, as is the case in the Hansonburg Mining District of Bingham. We suggest caution when using the REE as petrogenetic indicators because fluorite trace element chemistry can vary greatly among crystals within a deposit depending on the internal morphology of a particular crystal. 相似文献
19.
Sources of Enterococcus faecalis isolates from Pensacola Beach, FL. were identified using a library-based approach by applying the statistical method of average similarity to single and composite data sets generated from separate analyses. Data sets included antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA), rep-fingerprints, and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles. Use of a composite data set composed of ARA and rep-fingerprints, added to the confidence of the identifications. The addition of FAME data to composite data sets did not add to the confidence of identifications. Source identification was performed to better understand risk associated with higher densities of enterococci found in swash zone interstitial water (SZIW) as compared to adjacent bathing water on Pensacola Beach, FL. The "swash zone" is that area of the beach continually washed over by waves. As the potential sources of enterococci were limited in this environment, only two library units, sea gull and human, were constructed. Identification of the beach isolates using a composite data set indicated a sea gull origin. The clonality of the beach isolates suggested that the beach environment selects certain subspecies of E. faecalis. 相似文献
20.
Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training. 相似文献