Improving the assessment and valuation of climate change impacts for policy and regulatory analysis     

Alex L. Marten  Robert E. Kopp  Kate C. Shouse  Charles W. Griffiths  Elke L. Hodson  Elizabeth Kopits  Bryan K. Mignone  Chris Moore  Steve C. Newbold  Stephanie Waldhoff  Ann Wolverton 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):433-438

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Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

John Reilly  Sergey Paltsev  Ken Strzepek  Noelle E. Selin  Yongxia Cai  Kyung-Min Nam  Erwan Monier  Stephanie Dutkiewicz  Jeffery Scott  Mort Webster  Andrei Sokolov 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):561-573

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Methodological differences in projected potential evapotranspiration     

Stephanie A. McAfee 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):915-930

There is growing concern that the higher temperatures expected with climate change will exacerbate drought extent, duration and severity by enhancing evaporative demand. Temperature-based estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) are popular for many eminently practical reasons and have served well in many research and management settings. However, a number of recent publications have questioned whether it is appropriate to use temperature-based PET estimates for long-term evaporative demand and drought projections, demonstrating that PET does not always track temperature. Where precipitation changes are modest, methodologically driven differences in the magnitude or direction of PET trends could lead to contrasting drought projections. Here I calculate PET by three methods (Hamon, Priestley-Taylor and Penman) and evaluate whether different techniques introduce disparities in the sign of PET change, the degree of model agreement, or the magnitude of those changes. Changes in temperature-based Hamon PET were more significantly and consistently positive than trends in PET estimated by other methods, and where methods agreed that summer PET would increase, trends in temperature-based PET were often larger in magnitude. The discrepancies in PET trends appear to derive from regional changes in incoming shortwave radiation, wind speed and humidity -- phenomena simpler equations cannot capture. Because multiple variables can influence trends in PET, it may be more justifiable to use data-intensive methods, where the source(s) of uncertainty can be identified, rather than using simpler methods that could mask important trends.  相似文献   

A Test of Bycatch Reduction Devices on Commercial Crab Pots in a Tidal Marsh Creek in Virginia     

A. Scott Morris  Stephanie M. Wilson  Erik F. Dever  Randolph M. Chambers 《Estuaries and Coasts》2011,34(2):386-390

The effectiveness of bycatch reduction devices (BRDs) on commercial pots designed to capture blue crabs Callinectes sapidus was tested in the York River on Felgates Creek (37.2667 N, −76.5850 W) over the period 4 June through 31 July 2009. For each of 10 pairs of pots, one had BRDs affixed to all four entrance gapes and the other had none. Pots were baited approximately once each week but were sampled for blue crabs and bycatch 6 of 7 days each week for the duration of the study. More than one fourth of 1,643 total crabs were caught on the first day after baiting, and for these 7 days, no statistical difference was detected between either the number or size of legal-size crabs caught in BRD versus non-BRD pots. Of 51 Malaclemys terrapin and 44 fish caught as bycatch throughout the study, all but three fish were captured in non-BRD pots. BRDs exclude bycatch and may reduce incidental mortality of crabs in pots that are not tended regularly.  相似文献   

Evaluating IPCC AR4 cool-season precipitation simulations and projections for impacts assessment over North America     

Stephanie A. McAfee  Joellen L. Russell  Paul J. Goodman 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2271-2287

General circulation models (GCMs) have demonstrated success in simulating global climate, and they are critical tools for producing regional climate projections consistent with global changes in radiative forcing. GCM output is currently being used in a variety of ways for regional impacts projection. However, more work is required to assess model bias and evaluate whether assumptions about the independence of model projections and error are valid. This is particularly important where models do not display offsetting errors. Comparing simulated 300-hPa zonal winds and precipitation for the late 20th century with reanalysis and gridded precipitation data shows statistically significant and physically plausible associations between positive precipitation biases across all models and a marked increase in zonal wind speed around 30°N, as well as distortions in rain shadow patterns. Over the western United States, GCMs project drier conditions to the south and increasing precipitation to the north. There is a high degree of agreement between models, and many studies have made strong statements about implications for water resources and about ecosystem change on that basis. However, since one of the mechanisms driving changes in winter precipitation patterns appears to be associated with a source of error in simulating mean precipitation in the present, it suggests that greater caution should be used in interpreting impacts related to precipitation projections in this region and that standard assumptions underlying bias correction methods should be scrutinized.  相似文献   

Late Cenozoic tectonic activity and its significance in the Northern Junggar Basin,Northwestern China     

Zhengle Chen  Jian Liu  Hongliang Gong  Fengbin Han  Stephanie Marion Briggs  Enjiu Zheng  Guo Wang 《Tectonophysics》2011,497(1-4):45-56

The Dingshan area located in the northern part of the Junggar Basin of northwestern China is a significant prospect area for sandstone-type uranium deposits in China, where mainly Cenozoic rocks were deposited. The Cenozoic strata can be divided into four units according to the prior data and our own field observation. Sedimentary studies indicate that most Cenozoic strata were deposited under a hot and arid climate in a continental environment. The sedimentary facies are alluvial-fan, meandering-fluvial, and fluvio-lacustrine. Field investigation and interpretation of satellite images suggest that Cenozoic tectonics in the area is characterized by reactivation of early deep-seated thrusts, resulting in extensional fractures and formation of many small depressions in the shallow crustal level. Measurement of joint orientations suggests that regional shortening direction trends in north–south in the middle Pleistocene as indicated by the ESR (Electronic Spin Resonance) age of 0.1–0.4 Ma obtained from fault gouge and gypsum deposits. A four-stage sedimentation-tectonic evolution model of the northern Junggar Basin during the Late Cenozoic can be established based on reconstruction of sedimentary filling processes and Cenozoic tectonic movements. We suggest that landform evolution and groundwater movement are controlled by active tectonics, indicating that Late Cenozoic tectonic activities may also play important roles in the formation of sandstone-type uranium deposits. Therefore, a new metallogenic model for sandstone-type uranium deposits is proposed.  相似文献   

Characterization of acid river dilution and associated trace element behavior through hydrogeochemical modeling: A case study of the Banyu Pahit River in East Java, Indonesia     

Stephanie C.J. PalmerVincent J. van Hinsberg  Jeffrey M. McKenzie  Sophia Yee 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(11):1802-1810

Kawah Ijen volcano in East Java, Indonesia emits hyperacid (pH ≈ 0) brines rich in toxic elements including F, Al, Cd and Tl, which are transported downstream by the Banyu Pahit River, which is eventually used to irrigate farmland on the Asambagus Plain. The fate and behavior of major and trace elements are investigated, in the region of greatest change to the Banyu Pahit River, where thermal springs and the neutral Kali Sat and Kali Senggon Rivers increase its discharge 6-fold and pH increases from 1.9 to 4.5 with the development of abundant precipitates. The conservative behavior of Cl, F and SO₄ allows determination of the proportions of the mixing constituents at each confluence. Comparing a mass balance model based on the resulting proportions with measured concentrations demonstrates conservative behavior for most cations, with the exception of Si, Zr, Sn and Ba, which precipitate as amorphous silica, barite, and Zr and Sn phases, respectively. Iron is added as particulate Fe-(oxy)hydroxide in mixing with thermal spring outflow, and dissolves in the lower pH water. This also contributes Co, Cd, Mn, Y, and the rare earth elements, which are desorbed from the Fe-(oxy)hydroxide upon entering the acid water. Subsequent saturation in Fe-(oxy)hydroxide after mixing with the neutral rivers leads to a reverse response. Still, element behavior is close to conservative, which means that the volcanogenic toxic element load is almost entirely transferred to the Asambagus Plain with ensuing environmental and health impacts. This study shows that compositions of these acid waters can be understood and reproduced in a thermodynamic model, but only when fine-tuned using measured compositions and field observations. Therefore, the model’s utility in assessing the fate of toxic elements and in planning the environmental mitigation is limited.  相似文献   

Source, attenuation and potential mobility of arsenic at New Britannia Mine, Snow Lake, Manitoba     

Stephanie Simpson  Barbara L. Sherriff  Jamie Van GulckElena Khozhina  Kathleen LondryNikolay Sidenko 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(11):1843-1854

This study was to investigate the source, mobility and attenuation of As at the New Britannia Mine, Snow Lake, Manitoba. One major source of As contamination was determined to be an arsenopyrite residue stockpile (ARS) containing refractory Au in a waste rock impoundment. It appears that As is still moving through glacial clay at the base of the ARS into a confined aquifer even though the pile was capped in the year 2000. Arsenic is also being mobilized from a deposit of tailings, which formed following spills by previous owners, Nor Acme. Arsenic from the tailings is being mobilized by oxidation of arsenopyrite and reduction of arsenate to the more mobile arsenite by arsenate-reducing bacteria. This contamination is affecting a shallow unconfined aquifer and surface water flowing from the tailings through wetlands towards Snow Lake. Arsenic is being attenuated by adsorption to hydrated ferric oxides (HFO) in the tailings, wetland soils and aquatic plants. Although As in surface water, soils and plants along the flow path from the mine to Snow Lake are above Canadian drinking water guidelines, efficient natural attenuation by HFO in soils and plants of the wetlands have limited the concentration in Snow Lake to below drinking water standards.  相似文献   

Experimental constraints on the origins of primitive potassic lavas from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt     

Stephanie L. Weaver  Paul J. Wallace  A. Dana Johnston 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,166(3):825-843

Primitive magmas in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) span a wide geochemical range that includes calc-alkaline basalt and basaltic andesite, potassic shoshonites, and intraplate alkaline basalts, indicating that the subarc mantle wedge is chemically heterogeneous. The aim of this study is to experimentally constrain the origins of potassic lavas that have erupted along the volcanic front in the TMVB. We used a piston-cylinder apparatus to determine the P–T–H₂O near-liquidus phase relations for two primitive potassic lavas: a hornblende trachybasalt (shoshonite) from Cerro La Pilita in the central TMVB and a high-K calc-alkaline basalt from Ayutla in the western TMVB. Experiments were conducted at mantle pressures (0.8–2.5 GPa) and temperatures (1,100–1,400 °C) with 1.5–6 wt% H₂O. Results show that both samples were last equilibrated with an olivine + clinopyroxene assemblage at upper mantle pressures. Integrating our results with trace element characteristics, we conclude that the potassic magmas formed by a complex, multistage process in which melts from the hottest part of the mantle wedge either reequilibrated with clinopyroxene-rich veins in the shallow upper mantle or caused melting of such veins by advective heating. We combine our results with previous experiments on TMVB lavas to provide an along-arc perspective of melt equilibration depths in the mantle wedge. The results suggest that although melts may initially form deep in the wedge, they commonly reequilibrate with heterogeneous mantle at shallower depths. Primitive, medium-K basaltic andesites in the TMVB form by reequilibration with harzburgite, which we infer to be a common lithology in the upper mantle, whereas some potassic magmas like the ones studied here form through reequilibration with or melting of veins of olivine + clinopyroxene ± phlogopite. Though somewhat rare at the volcanic front relative to the more abundant medium-K volcanic rocks, the potassic magmas are an important lava type for revealing mantle chemical heterogeneities.  相似文献   

Urban tree planting programs, function or fashion? Los Angeles and urban tree planting campaigns   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stephanie Pincetl  Thomas Gillespie  Diane E. Pataki  Sassan Saatchi  Jean-Daniel Saphores 《GeoJournal》2013,78(3):475-493

Tree planting programs are being implemented in many US cities (most notably New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) on the basis of the multiple environmental and health benefits they may provide. However, the magnitude and even the direction of the impacts of trees on specific urban environments have seldom been directly measured. In addition, there has been little research on the historical, cultural, political or institutional origins of such programs, or on their implementation process. Pending questions include the degree to which these programs are integrated in the existing frameworks of city government and infrastructure management, how they are paid for, and the kinds of collaborations between nonprofit organizations, the public, and public agencies at all levels they may require in order to succeed. This paper reports on an interdisciplinary research project examining the Million Tree Program of the City of Los Angeles.  相似文献