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21.
We describe the non-primate mammalian fauna from the late Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene deposits of Mille-Logya in the Lower Awash Valley, Ethiopia, dated to c. 2.9–2.4 Ma, and divided into three successive units: Gafura, Seraitu, and Uraitele. We identify 41 mammalian taxa (including rodents), the most diverse group being the Bovidae, with 17 taxa. While the Gafura assemblage still resembles those from the earlier Hadar Formation, the younger Seraitu assemblage documents a major turnover. While there is little change in the species present across this interval, the relative abundances of various taxa change dramatically, with suids being largely replaced by open-country bovids (Alcelaphini and Antilopini). We interpret this faunal change as reflective of an environmental shift, contemporaneous with the replacement of Australopithecus afarensis by Homo in the area.  相似文献   
22.
The speciation and solubility of kimberlite pathfinder metals (Ni, Nd, Ba and K) in shallow peat groundwaters is investigated over the Yankee, Zulu and Golf kimberlites in the Attawapiskat region, James Bay Lowlands, Canada. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between dissolved organic matter (DOM) complexation with kimberlite pathfinder metals and determine the spatial distribution of those metals in shallow peat groundwaters along sampling transects over subcropping kimberlites. Nickel, Nd, Ba and K complexation with DOM and the adsorption of these metals onto ferrihydrite were calculated using Visual MINTEQ 3.0 and the NICA-Donnan database. Calculations predict almost 100% of soluble Nd, Ni and Ba form complexes with DOM at sampling sites with little to no contribution from upwelling groundwater (i.e., dissolved organic C (DOC) concentrations = 40–132 mg/L, pH = 3.9–5.5, and log ionic strength ??3). In only the most ombrotrophic peat groundwater conditions does a majority fraction of K bind to DOM. By contrast, under conditions with large contributions from upwelling groundwaters (i.e., DOC concentrations ?40 mg/L, pH = 5.5–6.5, and log ionic strength = ?3 to ?2), as little as 10% of Nd and Ni, and 0% K and Ba are predicted to complex with DOM. The modeling calculations suggest the dominant control on metal–DOM complexation, particularly with respect to Ni and Nd, is competitive effects for DOM binding sites due to elevated ionic strength where there is evidence of strong groundwater upwelling. Visual MINTEQ modeling of metal adsorption on ferrihydrite surfaces predicts that under strong upwelling conditions, Ni and Nd are scavenged from solution due to increased ferrihydrite precipitation and decreased fractions of metals complexed with DOM. Analytical geochemical data are consistent with model predictions of metal adsorption on ferrihydrite. Total dissolved Ni and Nd concentrations at sites of strong upwelling are up to five times lower than waters with little to no upwelling and log ferrihydrite saturation indices (logSIferr) indicate precipitation (values up to 5) at sites of strong groundwater upwelling. Where the majority of Ni and Nd complex with DOM and ferrihydrite is highly under saturated (logSIferr = ?18 to ?5), the concentrations of total Ni and Nd are elevated compared to other sites along sampling transects. Metal complexation with DOM effectively inhibits metal scavenging from solution via adsorption and/or from forming secondary mineral precipitates. Also, because alkaline earth metals do not compete strongly with Ni and Nd for adsorption sites on ferrihydrite surfaces, but do compete strongly for insoluble organic sites, Ni and Nd are more likely to adsorb onto ferrihydrite.  相似文献   
23.
Some conceptual models suggest that baseflow in agriculturally fragmented watersheds may contain little, if any, groundwater. This has critical implications for stream quality and ecosystem functioning. Here, we (a) identify the sources and flowpaths contributing to baseflow using 222Rn and 87Sr/86Sr and (b) quantify mean apparent ages of groundwater and baseflow using multiple isotopic tracers (CFC, SF6, 36Cl, and 3H) in 4 small (0.08 to 0.64 km2) tributary catchments to the Wabash River in Indiana, USA. 222Rn activities and 87Sr/86Sr ratios indicate that baseflow in 3 catchments is sourced primarily from groundwater; baseflow in the fourth is dominated by a source similar to agricultural run‐off. CFC‐12 data indicate that springs in 1 catchment are discharging significant proportions of water that recharged between 1974 (42 ± 2 years) and 1961 (55 ± 2 years). Those same springs have 36Cl/Cl ratios between 1,381.08 ± 29.37 (×10?15) and 1,530.64 ± 27.65 (×10?15) indicating that a substantial proportion of the discharge likely recharged between 1975 (41 years) and 1950 (66 years). Groundwater samples collected from streambed mini‐piezometers in a separate catchment have CFC‐12 concentrations indicating that a large proportion of the recharge occurred between 1948 (68 ± 2 years) and 1950 (66 ± 2 years). Repeat sampling conducted in September 2015 after above‐average summer rainfall did not show significant decreases in mean apparent age. The relatively old ages observed in 3 of the catchments can be explained by geological complexities that are likely present in all 4 catchments, but overwhelmed by flow from the shallow phreatic aquifer in the fourth catchment.  相似文献   
24.
The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
25.
Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
26.
Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.  相似文献   
27.
To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R2 about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R2 = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
28.
29.
Local Spatiotemporal Modeling of House Prices: A Mixed Model Approach   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
The real estate market has long provided an active application area for spatial–temporal modeling and analysis and it is well known that house prices tend to be not only spatially but also temporally correlated. In the spatial dimension, nearby properties tend to have similar values because they share similar characteristics, but house prices tend to vary over space due to differences in these characteristics. In the temporal dimension, current house prices tend to be based on property values from previous years and in the spatial–temporal dimension, the properties on which current prices are based tend to be in close spatial proximity. To date, however, most research on house prices has adopted either a spatial perspective or a temporal one; relatively little effort has been devoted to situations where both spatial and temporal effects coexist. Using ten years of house price data in Fife, Scotland (2003–2012), this research applies a mixed model approach, semiparametric geographically weighted regression (GWR), to explore, model, and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in the relationships between house prices and associated determinants. The study demonstrates that the mixed modeling technique provides better results than standard approaches to predicting house prices by accounting for spatiotemporal relationships at both global and local scales.  相似文献   
30.
Siliceous drift pumice was collected from a total of 40 beaches around the main island of New Caledonia, Southwest Pacific, in order to determine its provenance. New Caledonia is enclosed by a barrier reef lagoon whose 2008 designation as a UNESCO World Heritage Site brought attention to the environmental degradation caused by a century of open cast nickel mining. The frequent, voluminous pumice eruptions in the Southwest Pacific provide ample source material that is somewhat durable, highly transportable in water, and easy to collect and analyze. Geochemical and mineralogical analyses were used to identify the source of the pumice in order to map the transport vector across the open ocean and into the lagoon. Drift pumice was sampled during 2008 and 2010. The mineral assemblage of the pumice was consistently calcic plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, and opaque minerals. All of the pumice was of fairly uniform geochemistry: low in mafic elements, low in alkalis, with LILE enriched compared to HFSE, and negative Eu, Ti, and Zr anomalies. The pumice is predominately dacitic and tholeiitic. This geochemical signature was consistent with published data from the Tonga arc, which is further supported by the mineralogy. With the exception of two samples (which probably came from either the Kermadec arc or Vanuatu) all of the pumice comes from the Tonga arc. The samples from 2008 are consistent with pumice erupted from Metis Shoal in 2006, and the majority of 2010 samples are consistent with pumice erupted from an unnamed volcano (0403-091) that erupted in 2001.  相似文献   
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