Volcanic influences in a storm‐ and tide‐dominated shallow marine depositional system: The late permian broughton formation,southern Sydney Basin,Kiama, NSW     

Stuart W. Bull  R.A.F. Cas 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(4):569-584

Shallow marine sediments of the Broughton Formation are dominated by immature volcanic debris of intermediate to basic composition, generated in an adjacent subaerial environment by volcanism responsible for the nine shoshonite units intercalated within sediments of the Kiama region. Sediment was supplied to the offshore environment via periodic storm‐generated, expanded high density turbidity currents. Initial deposition, represented by the Westley Park Sandstone Member, was below storm wave base, during which time the depositional surface was subjected to post‐depositional tractional reworking by northerly directed, tidally influenced bottom currents. The resulting positive‐relief sand bodies on the seafloor contain tractional sedimentary structures (the ‘tractional facies association'). Areas of the substrate between these sand bodies retained their turbidite bedding structure (the ‘rhythmically bedded facies association') but were extensively bioturbated by a diverse deposit‐feeding biomass.

Upon emplacement of the lowest of the nine shoshonite units as a tri‐composite, locally intrusive lava flow, the depositional surface was elevated, transgressing storm wave base. The body of the shoshonite flow also shielded the substrate from the northerly directed tractional currents, allowing the development and preservation of the hummocky cross‐stratified sandstone facies in the Kiama Sandstone Member. Following burial of the shoshonite flow by continued deposition, this local shielding effect was overcome and tractional currents again reworked the entire depositional surface.  相似文献   

Verification of Toronto temperature and precipitation forecasts for the period 1960–1979     

A. Stuart  G. Menger  M. Bredin  J. Capizzano  D. Cardish  E. Gately 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):243-262

Abstract

The accuracy of temperature and precipitation forecasts for Toronto was studied for the 20‐year period 1960–1979. Since any archive of official forecasts extends for only a small part of this period, it was necessary to retrieve the forecasts from newspaper records. The possible errors involved in such a data source were examined through a comparison of newspaper reported observations and the official record. On only a few occasions were significant differences observed.

For temperature forecasts, the record indicates a significant loss of skill over the 20‐year periodin the prediction of maximum temperature for the first day. This was observed not only for the Bloor Street observing station for which the entire 20‐year record was analysed, but also for observing stations at Toronto Island, Downsview and Malton. The loss of skill over the years is greatest in winter when temperature is consistently predicted too low at all stations.

For the entire period under study, precipitation forecasts consisted only of words and no quantitative information (such as probability of precipitation forecasts) was issued. Word choice is intended to carry information on the duration and expected spatial coverage of precipitation, but substantial inconsistencies between word choice and subsequent precipitation occurrence were found. Consequently, the verification procedure for these forecasts was very simple and ignored any differences implied in word choice. With this technique precipitation forecasts were shown to have improved over the 20‐year period.  相似文献   

A coupled sediment routing and lateral migration model for gravel‐bed rivers     

Emma K. Raven  Rob Ferguson  Stuart N. Lane 《水文研究》2011,25(12):1887-1898

We describe additions made to a multi‐size sediment routing model enabling it to simulate width adjustment simultaneously alongside bed aggradation/incision and fining/coarsening. The model is intended for use in single thread gravel‐bed rivers over annual to decadal timescales and for reach lengths of 1–10 km. It uses a split‐channel approach with separate calculations of flow and sediment transport in the left and right sides of the channel. Bank erosion is treated as a function of excess shear stress with bank accretion occurring when shear stress falls below a second, low, threshold. A curvature function redistributes shear stress to either side of the channel. We illustrate the model through applications to a 5·6‐km reach of the upper River Wharfe in northern England. The sediment routing component with default parameter values gives excellent agreement with field data on downstream fining and down‐reach reduction in bedload flux, and the width‐adjustment components with approximate calibration to match maximum observed rates of bank shifting give plausible patterns of local change. The approach may be useful for exploring interactions between sediment delivery, river management and channel change in upland settings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bayesian modelling of environmental risk: example using a small area ecological study of coronary heart disease mortality in relation to modelled outdoor nitrogen oxide levels   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Robert Haining  Jane Law  Ravi Maheswaran  Tim Pearson  Paul Brindley 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):501-509

Bayesian modelling of health risks in relation to environmental exposures offers advantages over conventional (non-Bayesian) modelling approaches. We report an example using research into whether, after controlling for different confounders, air pollution (NO_x) has a significant effect on coronary heart disease mortality, estimating the relative risk associated with different levels of exposure. We use small area data from Sheffield, England and describe how the data were assembled. We compare the results obtained using a generalized (Poisson) log-linear model with adjustment for overdispersion, with the results obtained using a hierarchical (Poisson) log-linear model with spatial random effects. Both classes of models were fitted using a Bayesian approach. Including spatial random effects models both overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation effects arising as a result of analysing data from small contiguous areas. The first modelling framework has been widely used, while the second provides a more rigorous model for hypothesis testing and risk estimation when data refer to small areas. When the models are fitted controlling only for the age and sex of the populations, the generalized log-linear model shows NO_x effects are significant at all levels, whereas the hierarchical log-linear model with spatial random effects shows significant effects only at higher levels. We then adjust for deprivation and smoking prevalence. Uncertainty in the estimates of smoking prevalence, arising because the data are based on samples, was accounted for through errors-in-variables modelling. NO_x effects apparently are significant at the two highest levels according to both modelling frameworks.

Paul BrindleyEmail:

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Auriacusite, Fe3+Cu2+AsO4O, the first M 3+ member of the olivenite group, from the Black Pine mine, Montana, USA     

Stuart J. Mills  Anthony R. Kampf  Glenn Poirier  Mati Raudsepp  Ian M. Steele 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,99(1-2):113-120

Auriacusite, ideally Fe³⁺Cu²⁺AsO₄O, is a new arsenate mineral (IMA2009–037) and the Fe³⁺ analogue of olivenite, from the Black Pine mine, 14.5 km NW of Philipsburg, Granite Co., Montana, USA. It occurs lining quartz vughs and coating quartz crystals and is associated with segnitite, brochantite, malachite, tetrahedrite and pyrite. Auriacusite forms fibrous crystals up to about 5?µm in width and up to about 100?µm in length, which are intergrown to form fibrous mats. Individual crystals are a brownish golden yellow, whilst the fibrous mats are ochreous yellow. The crystals have a silky lustre and a brownish yellow streak. Mohs hardness is about 3 (estimated). The fracture is irregular and the tenacity is brittle. Auriacusite crystals are biaxial (+), with α?=?1.830(5), β?=?1.865(5) and γ?=?1.910(5), measured using white light, and with 2V _meas.?=?83(3)º and 2V _calc. = 84.6º. Orientation: X?=?a, Y?=?c, Z?=?b. Crystals are nonpleochroic or too weakly so to be observed. The empirical formula (based on 5 O atoms) is (Fe _1.33 ³⁺ Cu_0.85Zn_0.03)_Σ2.21(As_0.51Sb_0.27Si_0.04?S_0.02Te_0.01)_Σ0.85O₅. Auriacusite is orthorhombic, space group Pnnm, a?=?8.6235(7), b?=?8.2757(7), c?=?5.9501(5) Å, V?=?424.63(6) ų, Z?=?4. The five strongest lines in the powder X-ray diffraction pattern are [d _obs in Å / (I) / hkl]: 4.884 / (100) / 101, 001; 2.991 / (92) / 220; 2.476 / (85) / 311; 2.416 / (83) / 022; 2.669 / (74) / 221. The crystal structure was solved from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data utilising synchrotron radiation and refined to R ₁?=?0.1010 on the basis of 951 unique reflections with F _o?>?4σF. Auriacusite is identified as a member of the olivenite group with Fe³⁺ replacing Zn²⁺ or Cu²⁺ in trigonal bipyramidal coordination. Evidence suggests that auriacusite is an intermediate member between olivenite and an as yet undescribed Fe³⁺Fe³⁺-dominant member. The name is derived from the Latin auri (golden yellow) and acus (needle), in reference to its colour and crystal morphology.  相似文献   

Tracing the metasomatic and magmatic evolution of continental mantle roots with Sr, Nd, Hf and and Pb isotopes: A case study of Middle Atlas (Morocco) peridotite xenoliths     

Nadine Wittig  D. Graham Pearson  Joel A. Baker 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(4):1417-1435

We studied clinopyroxenes from spinel-facies peridotite xenoliths sampled by the Quaternary intra-plate volcanism of the Middle Atlas (Morocco) and present new trace element and Sr-Nd-Hf isotope data. However, we focus in particular on Pb isotope data and ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb ratios of these clinopyroxenes. This data allows us to investigate: (a) the timing of metasomatic events, (b) the prevalence and persistence of elevated ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb, ²³²Th/²³⁸U and ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb in continental mantle roots and (c) the ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb composition of putative basaltic melts generated from such metasomatised sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM).Incompatible trace element concentrations in these clinopyroxenes are elevated, marked by high-field strength element depletion and fractionated elemental ratios (e.g., U/Nb, Zr/Hf) most consistent with enrichment due to carbonatitic liquids. Sr, Nd and Hf isotopes have an affinity to HIMU.U, Th and Pb abundances in the clinopyroxenes generally exceed estimates of primitive mantle clinopyroxene. Pb isotope compositions of these clinopyroxenes are radiogenic and vary between ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 19.93-20.25, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.63-15.66 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 39.72-40.23. These Pb isotope systematics result in generally negative Δ7/4 but positive Δ8/4; setting these samples distinctly apart from typical HIMU. These Pb isotope compositions are also distinct from the associated host volcanic rocks. ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb of these clinopyroxenes, which range from 26 to 81 and 136 to 399, respectively, are elevated and more extreme than estimates of MORB- and HIMU-source mantle.The Pb isotope evolution of the clinopyroxenes suggests that the metasomatic enrichment is younger than 200 Ma, which discounts the volcanic activity due to the opening of the Atlantic and the onset of the collision of the African and Eurasian plates as processes generating the lithophile element and isotope composition of this continental mantle root. Instead, the enrichment is thought to be associated with the Quaternary intra-plate volcanism in the Middle Atlas. However, the erupted mafic melts have unradiogenic Pb isotopes and lower ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb, ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³²Th/²³⁸U relative to the clinopyroxene and do not seem to have equilibrated with the clinopyroxenes. The high Th abundances and the high ²³²Th/²³⁸U also suggest that the metasomatism was due to carbonatitic liquids.When literature data for Pb isotopes in mantle minerals are considered, the Pb isotope range of Archean, Proterozoic and Phanerozoic continental mantle roots is remarkable in that they are similar to the convecting mantle. This observation does not support the existence of sub-continental lithospheric mantle with high ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb for long periods of time. Consequently, the narrow range of Pb isotopes in SCLM worldwide suggests that only the youngest metasomatic events are recorded by incompatible elements such as U, Th and Pb. Numerical modelling of putative magmas generated from Middle Atlas SCLM by fractional, non-modal melting calculations yield extremely high ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb ratios. For example, pure SCLM magmas generated from 0.5% to 10% melting are anticipated to have ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb ratios exceeding those known from terrestrial basalts.  相似文献   

Quantifying the spatial distribution of sediment transport in an experimental gully system using the morphological method     

Wen Dai  Liyang Xiong  Gilles Antoniazza  Guoan Tang  Stuart N. Lane 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(6):1188-1208

Whilst time-series of sediment transport in gullies in both laboratory experimental and field settings can be determined through instrumentation, quantifying the spatial distribution of transport rates remains challenging. The morphological method, which was proposed for estimating bed-material transport in both one- and two-dimensions in rivers, provides an alternative. Here, we developed this method for gully systems. A laboratory catchment was used to simulate gully erosion. High-resolution topographical data were acquired by close-range digital photogrammetry. Morphological changes were determined using high-resolution topographic data and an associated level of detection. Based on measured morphological changes, one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) sediment transport rates were calculated via cross-section by cross-section routing (1D) and cell by cell routing (2D). The 1D application provided a general trend of longitudinal variation of sediment transport for the whole gully system, increased gradually from zones of headward extension to a zone downstream where erosion and deposition were in balance, and sediment transport rates less variable in space. For the 2D application, hydrological and blended hydrological-hydraulic routing solutions were compared. We found that the level of negative transport was insensitive to whether or not a blended hydrological-hydraulic routing was used and that results from applying the hydrological routing throughout were not significantly degraded. We also found that consideration should be given to spatial and temporal resolution of the topographic data. The 2D application provided spatial patterns of sediment transport that vary with gully evolution. The main gully remained a high transport corridor but branch transport became more important through time. The framework we report provides an additional tool for both experimental and field quantification of the spatial patterns of sediment transport in gullies; and quantification of how these patterns change under different forcing factors.  相似文献   

An exploratory spatial data analysis of low birth weight prevalence in Georgia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Wei Tu  Stuart TeddersJie Tian 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):195-207

Low birth weight (LBW), defined as a live birth weighing less than 2500 g, is a significant public health problem in the United States, but the complex nature of the etiology of this problem is not fully understood. Moreover, significant disparities in LBW prevalence are well documented among certain populations, particularly in minority and underserved communities. The identification of spatial patterns of LBW prevalence is a critical first step in a more complete understanding of the epidemiology of this public health challenge and these techniques are instrumental in designing valid observational and analytical studies to more fully study the problem. This paper examines the spatial patterns of LBW prevalence, as well as the presence of spatial clusters in the State of Georgia at both the county and census tract levels. Unadjusted and empirical Bayes smoothed LBW rates were mapped to visualize the spatial variation of LBW rates, and the Moran’s I statistic and the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) statistic were computed to assess the degree of spatial dependence in the LBW rates. Results revealed marked geographical variation in LBW prevalence in Georgia in 2000. In addition, these data validate the significant disparity (two-fold difference) between white and black racial subgroups as documented in the literature. Trends associated with positive and negative spatial autocorrelations illustrated variation with respect to race. Limitations of data and methods, as well as plans for utility of the results of this study for further investigation were discussed.  相似文献   

Population trends in the Slavonian grebe <Emphasis Type="Italic">Podiceps auritus</Emphasis> (L.) and Chironomidae (Diptera) at a Scottish loch     

Stephen J. Brooks  Vivienne J. Jones  Richard J. Telford  Peter G. Appleby  Emily Watson  Suzanne McGowan  Stuart Benn 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(4):631-644

Loch Ruthven holds the largest British population of the rare water-bird Podiceps auritus, the Slavonian or horned grebe. The breeding success of this bird has fluctuated annually since records began in 1970. To investigate whether these trends are linked to the abundance of chironomid midges, which are an important food-source for the grebe chicks, we analysed a sediment core from the lake, which was sliced at 2.5-mm intervals and provided near-annual sampling resolution. We also analysed diatoms and algal pigments in the lake sediments and inferred changes in total phosphorus from the diatom assemblage to determine whether changes in lake productivity have influenced the abundance of chironomids. Trends in grebe productivity, chironomid abundance and algal assemblages were compared against climate data to determine whether climate, specifically, the North Atlantic Oscillation, was the ultimate driver of the trends we recorded. Our results show that grebe breeding success is positively correlated with chironomid abundance and chironomid abundance is positively correlated with diatom-inferred total phosphorus. Lake productivity and chironomid abundance began to rise early in the twentieth century and continued to rise on a steeper trajectory from the mid-twentieth century to the present. Since the mid-1960s, chironomid abundance began to fluctuate erratically and since 1970 was in phase with grebe productivity, with the grebe trends most plausibly lagging by 1 year. These trends appear to correlate with inter-annual fluctuations in diatom-inferred total phosphorus. No correlation was found between grebe productivity or chironomid abundance and climate variables, suggesting that the size of the chironomid population and breeding success of Podiceps auritus at Loch Ruthven is resource-linked.  相似文献   

Multiple mechanisms driving detachment folding as deduced from 3D reconstruction and geomechanical restoration: the Pico del Águila anticline (External Sierras,Southern Pyrenees)     

Oskar Vidal‐Royo  Nestor Cardozo  Josep Anton Muñoz  Stuart Hardy  Laurent Maerten 《Basin Research》2012,24(3):295-313

Three‐dimensional (3D) modelling allows observation of geological features that may not be evident by classical two‐dimensional approaches. This is particularly important in the Pico del Águila anticline (Central External Sierras, Southern Pyrenees, Spain), a structure characterized by important geometrical variability in 3D. The Pico del Águila is a N–S‐trending fold, transverse to the E–W‐trending South‐Pyrenean thrust front, with well‐exposed growth strata that record the evolution of the structure and the influence of the South‐Pyrenean thrust front. Fold kinematics is complex and not precisely quantified. It is characterized by multiple folding mechanisms acting simultaneously in a heterogeneous stratigraphic sequence. To better understand the fold's structural evolution, 3D reconstruction and geomechanical restoration of the structure were performed. The restoration takes into account rock mechanical properties without assuming a specific kinematic model. Our work suggests that the growth of the structure was characterized by variable uplift/sedimentation rates through time and between fold limbs. The restoration also reveals that a combination of multiple folding mechanisms operated simultaneously in different units and structural domains during anti‐clinal growth. This has major implications in the understanding of detachment folds with associated growth strata, as such structures are described in many settings as potential traps for hydrocarbons and natural resources.  相似文献