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Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari Samir Pokhrel Sachiko Mohanty Subodh K. Saha 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):459-477
This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction. 相似文献
86.
Jagdish Chandra Gupta 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1975,14(2):247-253
In analyses of the effect of variation of the Earth-Moon distance on geophysical phenomena, it is customary to arrange the geophysical data according to the dates of apogee and perigee. However, lunar distances at apogee and especially at perigee vary within wide limits from month to month. A new daily indexD' of lunar distance is defined to permit a more precise determination of effects related to lunar distance. It is readily calculated by a computer program. 相似文献
87.
Radiative recombination coefficients for some quadruply and quintuply ionized atoms, present in the Sun and its atmosphere, are investigated in the temperature range 10–104 K by using the method of detailed balance. Simple expressions are given for a quick estimation. 相似文献
88.
Suresh Chandra 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1983,96(2):455-456
The investigation of Alamet al. (1979), of the temperature distribution in spherically-symmetric transition region and inner corona, appears to be in error. 相似文献
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The equilibrium structure and oscillations of a partially degenerate standard model in the presence of a poloidal magnetic field have been studied. The magnetic field in the interior has been matched with an outside dipole field. The effect of magnetic field on the various structural parameters, e.g., mass, central condensation, moment of inertia, and oblateness has been computed for different values of the central degeneracy of the model. We have also studied the effect of magnetic field on radial oscillations of the configuration. A variational formulation is used to compute the changes in the frequency of radial mode of oscillation. It has been shown that the changes in frequency computed for various models using a two-parameter eigenfunction are in fair agreement with the values obtained by using the exact eigenfunction. 相似文献