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I. Charvet A. Suppasri F. Imamura 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(7):1853-1867
Tsunamis are disastrous events typically causing loss of life, and extreme damage to the built environment, as shown by the recent disaster that struck the East coast of Japan in 2011. In order to quantitatively estimate damage in tsunami prone areas, some studies used a probabilistic approach and derived fragility functions. However, the models chosen do not provide a statistically sound representation of the data. This study applies advanced statistical methods in order to address these limitations. The area of study is the city of Ishinomaki in Japan, the worst affected area during the 2011 event and for which an extensive amount of detailed building damage data has been collected. Ishinomaki city displays a variety of geographical environments that would have significantly affected tsunami flow characteristics, namely a plain, a narrow coast backed up by high topography (terrain), and a river. The fragility analysis assesses the relative structural vulnerability between these areas, and reveals that the buildings surrounding the river were less likely to be damaged. The damage probabilities for the terrain area (with relatively higher flow depths and velocities) were lower or similar to the plain, which confirms the beneficial role of coastal protection. The model diagnostics show tsunami flow depth alone is a poor predictor of tsunami damage for reinforced concrete and steel structures, and for all structures other variables are influential and need to be taken into account in order to improve fragility estimations. In particular, evidence shows debris impact contributed to at least a significant amount of non-structural damage. 相似文献
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Panon Latcharote Khaled Al-Salem Anawat Suppasri Tanuspong Pokavanich Shinji Toda Yogeesha Jayaramu Abdullah Al-Enezi Alanoud Al-Ragum Fumihiko Imamura 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):127-143
This paper explores the ways that Mongolian pastoral-nomadic herders and supporting aid organizations anticipate, interpret, and respond to dzud, a form of winter storm that prevents livestock grazing and often results in large-scale herd deaths. Analysis is drawn from organizational reports, government speeches, and mass media that have been collected to give a complex, multi-faceted understanding of the collection, distribution, and interpretation of data pertaining to the social and scientific construction of this natural hazard. Using critical discourse analysis, this study asks how herder perspectives and needs have been incorporated into reports and action plans of international development organizations. The collected documents provide insight into the ways that knowledge is constructed, disseminated and valued among policy makers, development planners and herders. Additionally, the findings indicate disagreement between stakeholders as to when to declare a national emergency, and how to best help herders respond to the increasing frequency of dzud. While some organizations rely on traditional recovery mechanisms, others have turned to technological solutions, all aiming to assist herders in adequately responding to and recovering from one dzud before another occurs. From the analysis of policy proposals, this study aims to understand and inform the ways that international development programs, government officials, and herders work to preserve pasturelands and herding lifestyles threatened by dzud. 相似文献
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