Let-It-Rain: a web application for stochastic point rainfall generation at ungaged basins and its applicability in runoff and flood modeling     

Dongkyun?KimEmail author  Huidae?Cho  Christian?Onof  Minha?Choi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(4):1023-1043

We present a web application named Let-It-Rain that is able to generate a 1-h temporal resolution synthetic rainfall time series using the modified Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (MBLRP) model, a type of Poisson stochastic rainfall generator. Let-It-Rain, which can be accessed through the web address http://www.LetItRain.info, adopts a web-based framework combining ArcGIS Server from server side for parameter value dissemination and JavaScript from client side to implement the MBLRP model. This enables any desktop and mobile end users with internet access and web browser to obtain the synthetic rainfall time series at any given location at which the parameter regionalization work has been completed (currently the contiguous United States and Republic of Korea) with only a few mouse clicks. Let-It-Rain shows satisfactory performance in its ability to reproduce observed rainfall mean, variance, auto-correlation, and probability of zero rainfall at hourly through daily accumulation levels. It also shows a reasonably good performance in reproducing watershed runoff depth and peak flow. We expect that Let-It-Rain can stimulate the uncertainty analysis of hydrologic variables across the world.  相似文献   

Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach     

Daryl?LamEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Chris?Thompson  Jacky?Croke 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):2011-2031

Extreme flood events have detrimental effects on society, the economy and the environment. Widespread flooding across South East Queensland in 2011 and 2013 resulted in the loss of lives and significant cost to the economy. In this region, flood risk planning and the use of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of the 1-in-100 year flood is severely limited by short gauging station records. On average, these records are 42 years in Eastern Australia and many have a poor representation of extreme flood events. The major aim of this study is to test the application of an alternative method to estimate flood frequency in the form of the Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curve (PREC) approach which integrates additional spatial information of extreme flood events. In order to better define and constrain a working definition of an extreme flood, an Australian Envelope Curve is also produced from available gauging station data. Results indicate that the PREC method shows significant changes to the larger recurrence intervals (≥100 years) in gauges with either too few, or too many, extreme flood events. A decision making process is provided to ascertain when this method is preferable for FFA.  相似文献   

An assessment of using subsampling method in selection of a flood frequency distribution     

Samiran?DasEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):2033-2045

In flood frequency analysis, a suitable probability distribution function is required in order to establish the flood magnitude-return period relationship. Goodness of fit (GOF) techniques are often employed to select a suitable distribution function in this context. But they have been often criticized for their inability to discriminate between statistical distributions for the same application. This paper investigates the potential utility of subsampling, a resampling technique with the aid of a GOF test to select the best distribution for frequency analysis. The performance of the methodology is assessed by applying the methodology to observed and simulated annual maximum (AM) discharge data series. Several AM series of different record lengths are used as case studies to determine the performance. Numerical analyses are carried out to assess the performance in terms of sample size, subsample size and statistical properties inherent in the AM data series. The proposed methodology is also compared with the standard Anderson–Darling (AD) test. It is found that the methodology is suitable for a longer data series. A better performance is obtained when the subsample size is taken around half of the underlying data sample. The methodology has also outperformed the standard AD test in terms of effectively discriminating between distributions. Overall, all results point that the subsampling technique can be a promising tool in discriminating between distributions.  相似文献   

A stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed     

Raúl?Fierro  Víctor?LeivaEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2327-2336

We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.  相似文献   

Frequency based imputation of precipitation     

Fatih?DikbasEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2415-2434

Changing climate and precipitation patterns make the estimation of precipitation, which exhibits two-dimensional and sometimes chaotic behavior, more challenging. In recent decades, numerous data-driven methods have been developed and applied to estimate precipitation; however, these methods suffer from the use of one-dimensional approaches, lack generality, require the use of neighboring stations and have low sensitivity. This paper aims to implement the first generally applicable, highly sensitive two-dimensional data-driven model of precipitation. This model, named frequency based imputation (FBI), relies on non-continuous monthly precipitation time series data. It requires no determination of input parameters and no data preprocessing, and it provides multiple estimations (from the most to the least probable) of each missing data unit utilizing the series itself. A total of 34,330 monthly total precipitation observations from 70 stations in 21 basins within Turkey were used to assess the success of the method by removing and estimating observation series in annual increments. Comparisons with the expectation maximization and multiple linear regression models illustrate that the FBI method is superior in its estimation of monthly precipitation. This paper also provides a link to the software code for the FBI method.  相似文献   

Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?     

Susan E. Hough  Victor C. Tsai  Robert Walker  Fred Aminzadeh 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(6):1613-1621

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.  相似文献   

Isochron‐burial dating of glaciofluvial deposits: First results from the Swiss Alps          下载免费PDF全文

Naki Akçar  Susan Ivy‐Ochs  Vasily Alfimov  Fritz Schlunegger  Anne Claude  Regina Reber  Marcus Christl  Christof Vockenhuber  Andreas Dehnert  Meinert Rahn  Christian Schlüchter 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(14):2414-2425

In this study, we use isochron‐burial dating to date the Swiss Deckenschotter, the oldest Quaternary deposits of the northern Alpine Foreland. Concentrations of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al in individual clasts from a single stratigraphic horizon can be used to calculate an isochron‐burial age based on an assumed initial ratio and the measured ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio. We suggest that, owing to deep and repeated glacial erosion, the initial isochron ratio of glacial landscapes at the time of burial varies between 6.75 and 8.4. Analysis of 22 clasts of different lithology, shape, and size from one 0.5 m thick gravel bed at Siglistorf (Canton Aargau) indicates low nuclide concentrations: <20 000 ¹⁰Be atoms/g and <150 000 ²⁶Al atoms/g. Using an ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio of 7.6 (arithmetical mean of 6.75 and 8.4), we calculate a mean isochron‐burial age of 1.5 ± 0.2 Ma. This age points to an average bedrock incision rate between 0.13 and 0.17 mm/a. Age data from the Irchel, Stadlerberg, and Siglistorf sites show that the Higher Swiss Deckenschotter was deposited between 2.5 and 1.3 Ma. Our results indicate that isochron‐burial dating can be successfully applied to glaciofluvial sediments despite very low cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of earthquake hazard for the northwestern Vietnam from geological and geophysical data using an original program package     

Ngo?Thi?LuEmail author  M.?V.?Rodkin  Tran?Viet?Phuong  Nguyen?Quang  Phung?Thi?Thu Hang  Vu?Thi?Hoan 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2017,11(2):164-171

The highest seismic activity in Vietnam is observed in the northwest of the country, hence the practical significance of more accurate assessment of the earthquake hazard for the area. The worldwide experience of seismicity, in particular, the recent Tohoku mega-earthquake (March 11, 2011, M _w = 9.0, Japan) shows that instrumental and historical data alone are insufficient to reliably estimate earthquake hazard. This is all the more relevant in relation to Vietnam where the period of instrumental observation is short and historical evidence is nearly lacking. In this connection we made an attempt to construct maps of earthquake hazard based on known seismicity data using the available geological and geophysical data and the method of G.I. Reisner and his associates for classification of areas by seismic potential. Since the question of what geological and geophysical parameters are to be used and with what weights remains unresolved, we developed a program package to estimate Mmax based on different options in the use of geological and geophysical data. In this paper we discuss the first results and the promise held by this program package.  相似文献   

Controls on deep critical zone architecture: a historical review and four testable hypotheses   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Clifford S. Riebe  W. Jesse Hahm  Susan L. Brantley 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(1):128-156

The base of Earth's critical zone (CZ) is commonly shielded from study by many meters of overlying rock and regolith. Though deep CZ processes may seem far removed from the surface, they are vital in shaping it, preparing rock for infusion into the biosphere and breaking Earth materials down for transport across landscapes. This special issue highlights outstanding challenges and recent advances of deep CZ research in a series of articles that we introduce here in the context of relevant literature dating back to the 1500s. Building on several contributions to the special issue, we highlight four exciting new hypotheses about factors that drive deep CZ weathering and thus influence the evolution of life‐sustaining CZ architecture. These hypotheses have emerged from recently developed process‐based models of subsurface phenomena including: fracturing related to subsurface stress fields; weathering related to drainage of bedrock under hydraulic head gradients; rock damage from frost cracking due to subsurface temperature gradients; and mineral reactions with reactive fluids in subsurface chemical potential gradients. The models predict distinct patterns of subsurface weathering and CZ thickness that can be compared with observations from drilling, sampling and geophysical imaging. We synthesize the four hypotheses into an overarching conceptual model of fracturing and weathering that occurs as Earth materials are exhumed to the surface across subsurface gradients in stress, hydraulic head, temperature, and chemical potential. We conclude with a call for a coordinated measurement campaign designed to comprehensively test the four hypotheses across a range of climatic, tectonic and geologic conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rapid adjustment of shoreline behavior to changing seasonality of storms: observations and modelling at an open‐coast beach          下载免费PDF全文

Kristen D. Splinter  Ian L. Turner  Mika Reinhardt  Gerben Ruessink 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(8):1186-1194

An 8‐year time series of weekly shoreline data collected at the Gold Coast, Australia, is used to examine the temporal evolution of a beach, focusing on the frequency response of the shoreline to time‐varying wave height and period. Intriguingly, during 2005 the movement of the shoreline at this site changed from a seasonally‐dominated mode (annual cycle) to a storm‐dominated (~monthly) mode. This unexpected observation provides the opportunity to explore the drivers of the observed shoreline response. Utilizing the calibration of an equilibrium shoreline model to explore the time‐scales of underlying beach behavior, the best‐fit frequency response (days^?1) is shown to be an order of magnitude higher post‐2004, suggesting that a relatively subtle change in wave forcing can drive a significant change in shoreline response. Analysis of available wave data reveals a statistically significant change in the seasonality of storms, from predominantly occurring at the start of the year pre‐2005 to being relatively consistent throughout the year after this time. The observed change from one mode of shoreline variability to another suggests that beaches can adapt relatively quickly to subtle changes in the intra‐annual distribution of wave energy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献