气候变化对中国农业生产的影响   总被引：89，自引：1，他引：88  

唐国平  李秀彬 《地理学报》2000,55(2):129-138

根据１９５８￣１９９７年中国３１０个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温,月平均降水量,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背影特征。用３个大气环流模型,即ＨａｄＣＭ２、ＣＧＣＭ１、ＥＣＨＡＭ４来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景。同时,建立未来气候变化的６种方案。最后,根据３个ＧＣＭｓ模拟的结果,利用国际应用系统分析研究所（ＩＩＡＳＡ）发展并改进的农业生态地带模型（ＡＥＺ）评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响。评估主  相似文献   

气候变化对中国农业生产的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐国平  李秀彬  Sylvia Prieler 《地理学报》2000,55(5)

根据1958～1997年中国310个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温,月平均降水量,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背景特征.用3个大气环流模型,即HadCM2、CGCM1、ECHAM4来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景.同时,建立未来气候变化的6种方案.最后,根据3个GCMs模拟的结果,利用国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)发展并改进的农业生态地带模型(AEZ)评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响.评估主要集中于气候变化对不同区域复种指数、可耕种土地面积、潜在粮食产量及其土地生产潜力的影响.  相似文献   

Relative Impacts of Natural Stressors on Life History Traits Underlying Resilience of Intertidal Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.)     

Sylvia Yang  Elizabeth E. Wheat  Micah J. Horwith  Jennifer L. Ruesink 《Estuaries and Coasts》2013,36(5):1006-1013

Seagrasses are a critical marine habitat and are in decline worldwide. Previous studies have demonstrated that factors such as sediment conditions, resource availability, and desiccation can influence life history transitions and morphology in intertidal eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) and therefore potential for recovery after a disturbance. We combined these factors in an exploratory path model linking environmental conditions to eelgrass vegetative (shoot size and density) and reproductive traits (branching, flowering, seedling recruitment). In this construction, significant path coefficients reveal factors influencing recovery potential. To test the path model, we collected abiotic and eelgrass data at 17 sites in the southern Salish Sea (Washington, USA) and assessed model fit with structural equation modeling. Significant path coefficients linked sediment organic content to shoot size and seedling recruitment, tidal amplitude to reduced flowering, and shoot size and density were inversely correlated. We found no significant links between any morphological or life history trait and nutrient availability, possibly reflecting consistently high nutrients across sites. Variable rates of asexual reproduction and a trade-off between shoot size and density may reflect light limitation in eelgrass’ intertidal range, where light is not expected to be strongly limiting. Overall, structural equation modeling identified organic-rich sediments as relatively more important than desiccation and nutrient conditions for resilience potential of intertidal eelgrass populations in this region. Life history and morphological traits provide eelgrass with recovery mechanisms from disturbance where sediments are muddy, which has implications for both conservation and restoration.  相似文献   

Spatial discretization of large watersheds and its influence on the estimation of hillslope sediment yield          下载免费PDF全文

Virginia I. González  Athena B. Carkovic  Gabriel P. Lobo  Dennis C. Flanagan  Carlos A. Bonilla 《水文研究》2016,30(1):30-39

The combined use of water erosion models and geographic information systems has facilitated soil loss estimation at the watershed scale. Tools such as the Geo‐spatial interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP) model provide a convenient spatially distributed soil loss estimate but require discretization to identify hillslopes and channels. In GeoWEPP, the TOpographic PArameteriZation (TOPAZ) model is used as an automated procedure to extract a watershed boundary, hillslopes and channels from a digital elevation model (DEM). Previous studies in small watersheds have shown that the size of the hillslopes and the channel distribution affect the model estimates, but in large watersheds, the effects on the soil loss estimates have yet to be tested. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of discretization on the hillslope sediment yield estimates using GeoWEPP in two large watersheds (>10 km²). The watersheds were selected and discretized varying the TOPAZ parameters [critical source area (CSA) and minimum source channel length (MSCL)] in a 30‐m resolution digital elevation model. The drainage networks built with TOPAZ were compared with each other using the drainage density index. The results showed that the discretization affected hillslope sediment yield estimates and their spatial distribution more than the total runoff. The drainage density index and the hillslope sediment yield were proportional but inversely related; thus, soil loss estimates were highly affected by the spatial discretization. As a result of this analysis, a method to choose the CSA and MSCL values that generates the greatest fraction of hillslopes having profile lengths less than 200 m was developed. This slope length condition is particularly crucial when using the WEPP and GeoWEPP models, in order for them to produce realistic estimates of sheet and rill erosion. Finally, and as a result of this analysis, a more reliable method was developed for selecting the TOPAZ channel network parameters (CSA and MSCL). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

How much water do Chilean forests use? A review of interception losses in forest plot studies          下载免费PDF全文

Sylvia Soto‐Schönherr  Andrés Iroumé 《水文研究》2016,30(25):4674-4686

After several years of decreased annual rainfall and water shortages, the Chilean society is demanding that forest plantations take accountability of their role in consuming scarce water resources. Evidence has shown that interception losses are considerable when determining water production in watersheds. The aim of this study was to determine if site and stand variables explain interception losses by Chilean forests for the development of an empirical model that could predict the potential impacts of forest management practices and land‐use change. A total of 127 data from annual water balance plot studies in Chile were compiled to derive relationships between interception and precipitation, species composition, plantation age and other stand and site variables. The reviewed data indicated that annual interception losses are mainly explained by annual rainfall and basal area of the forest stands, with a clear difference between the northern (dryer) and southern (wetter) regions of Chile. For a wide latitudinal gradient, forest composition and age, annual interception accounted for approximately 21% of incoming precipitations. Broadleaved forest stands (including native broadleaved and eucalypt forests) generally presented higher interception losses than conifers. Interception was higher in northern zones, indicating that forests have greater impacts on water resources in dryer regions. Our results were compiled in empirical models, which can be used to estimate forest interception in a latitudinal gradient in Chile and to support policy making. These results are also proposed as an approximate analogue of the changes in forest interception losses, which may occur as vegetation belts shift latitudinally as a result of the impact of climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Distributional effects of property rights: Transitions in the Atlantic Herring fishery     

Sylvia Brandt  David McEvoy   《Marine Policy》2006,30(6):659-670

A principal challenge in developing any fishery management plan is the allocation of benefits and costs among participants in the fishery. This process is further complicated by imperfect information about future market demand and limited ability to predict the consequences of regulatory change. This paper offers a new approach to policymakers, using econometric analysis to simulate the potential impact of individual tradable quotas (ITQs) in a fishery. We compare the distribution of harvest across participants in the Atlantic Herring fishery under the current open access regime and under a potential ITQ regime, assuming two different levels of future demand. Our results show that production efficiency varies by vessel gear, home-port and relationship with buyers. Some of the predicted consequences of ITQs are: vessels from Massachusetts will gain share relative to those from Maine; trawlers will gain share relative to purse seine vessels; and independent vessels will lose share relative to vessels that are primarily contracted to specific processors or bait companies. These results will help policymakers in developing future management plans for the herring fishery. More generally, this analytical approach can help regulators in any fishery assess the potential impact of alternative policy changes under alternative future demand scenarios.  相似文献   

Bioerosion by the sea urchin Diadema mexicanum along Eastern Tropical Pacific coral reefs          下载免费PDF全文

Juan José Alvarado  Jorge Cortés  Hector Guzman  Héctor Reyes‐Bonilla 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(5):1088-1102

Bioerosion is a natural process in coral reefs. It is fundamental to the health of these ecosystems. In the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) coral reefs, the most important bioeroders are sponges, bivalves, sea urchins and the fish Arothron meleagris. In the 1980s, El Niño caused high coral mortality and an increase in macroalgal growth. As a result, greater sea urchin bioerosion occurred. This weakened the reef framework. Considering the high vulnerability of the ETP coral reefs, the goal of this study was to determine the current bioerosion impact of the sea urchin Diadema mexicanum along the western coasts of Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panamá. The balance between coral bioaccretion and sea urchin bioerosion was also calculated. Between 2009 and 2010, in 12 coral reefs localities, D. mexicanum density, bottom cover and rugosity were quantified along band transects. The daily bioerosion rate was obtained from the amount of carbonates evacuated by sea urchins per unit time. The rate of coral accretion was calculated by multiplying the coral growth rate of the dominant genus by the density of their skeleton and by their specific coral cover. The localities were dissimilar (R = 0.765, P < 0.001) in terms of live coral cover, crustose calcareous algae, turf cover, rugosity index, and density and size of D. mexicanum. At all sites, with the exception of Bahía Culebra (Costa Rica), coral bioerosion was less than coral bioaccretion. Diadema mexicanum plays a dominant role in the balance of carbonates in the ETP, but this depends on reef condition (protection, overfishing, eutrophication) and so the impacts can be either positive or negative.  相似文献   

Iceland's best kept secret     

Sylvia E. Berg  Valentin R. Troll  Steffi Burchardt  Morten S. Riishuus  Michael Krumbholz  Ludvik E. Gústafsson 《Geology Today》2014,30(2):54-60

The ‘forgotten fjords’ and ‘deserted inlets’ of NE‐Iceland, in the region between Borgarfjörður Eystri and Loðmundarfjörður, are not only prominent because of their pristine landscape, their alleged elfin settlements, and the puffins that breed in the harbour, but also for their magnificent geology. From a geological point of view, the area may hold Iceland's best kept geological secret. The greater Borgarfjörður Eystri area hosts mountain chains that consist of voluminous and colourful silicic rocks that are concentrated within a surprisingly small area (Fig. 1 ), and that represent the second‐most voluminous occurrence of silicic rocks in the whole of Iceland. In particular, the presence of unusually large volumes of ignimbrite sheets documents extremely violent eruptions during the Neogene, which is atypical for this geotectonic setting. As a group of geoscientists from Uppsala University (Sweden) and the Nordic Volcanological Center (NordVulk, Iceland) we set out to explore this remote place, with the aim of collecting material that may allow us to unravel the petrogenesis of these large volumes of silicic rocks. This effort could provide an answer to a long‐standing petrological dilemma; the question of how silicic continental crust is initially created. Here we document on our geological journey, our field strategy, and describe our field work in the remote valleys of NE‐Iceland.  相似文献   

Middle Pleistocene biota of the early Anglian ‘Arctic Fresh-water Bed’ at Ostend, Norfolk, UK     

Simon A. Parfitt  G. Russell Coope  Sylvia M. Peglar  John E. Whittaker 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2010,121(1):55-52

At three sites along the North Norfolk coast, freshwater sediments containing arctic plants have been reported to occur immediately beneath the glacial deposits. The sections at Mundesley and Beeston are no longer visible but a small exposure of this ‘Arctic Fresh-water Bed’ has recently been rediscovered at Ostend near Bacton. The fossils from this deposit are distinctly high boreal/arctic in character, indicating a small, possibly ephemeral, pool in a generally open landscape supporting some dwarf shrubs and conifers. Noteworthy records include three beetle species (Pterostichus brevicornis, P. middendorffi and Helophorus obscurellus) that today have their closest occurrences on either the Kanin or Kola peninsulas in arctic Russia. A Mutual Climatic Range reconstruction on the limited beetle fauna suggests that the mean temperatures of the warmest and coldest months were between 9 °C and 11 °C and between −36 °C and −10 °C, respectively. Other noteworthy occurrences include the aquatic pulmonate gastropod Gyraulus rossmaessleri (second and earliest British record), the ostracod Amplocypris tonnensis (earliest British record), ground squirrel (Spermophilus sp.) and the first record of arctic lemming (Dicrostonyx sp.) from the Cromer Forest-bed Formation (CF-bF). The ‘Arctic Fresh-water Bed’ has been assigned to the Bacton Member of the CF-bF and formed during the early Anglian, correlated with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 of the deep sea record. The Ostend assemblage is therefore important in providing a glimpse of conditions that occurred during a major cold stage in the early Middle Pleistocene.  相似文献   

Read all about it!? Public accountability,fragmented global climate governance and the media     

Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen  Lars Friberg  Edoardo Saccenti 《Climate Policy》2013,13(8):982-997

The way that the media reports and comments on key events in the fragmented global climate governance landscape is one important route to strengthening public accountability of such governance. Editorials and other opinion pieces provide key contributions to the public sphere, but have been almost entirely neglected in media research on climate change. Another understudied aspect in such research is the reporting on the fragmentation of global climate governance across numerous forums. This article provides an exploratory approach to address these two research gaps. It presents a quantitative analysis of how often leading newspapers in seven countries (Finland, India, Laos, Norway, South Africa, UK and USA) wrote about 18 meetings in six different global climate governance forums between 2004–2009 and whether they provided commentaries about them. The study shows that media coverage (articles and opinion pieces) is limited or absent for many meetings that are not attended by heads of state, are the launch of a new process or do not have the convening power of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The pattern of coverage differs significantly among individual newspapers and there is no clear distinction between developed and developing country newspapers. The article concludes that overall news coverage, and editorial commentary in particular, of global climate meetings in the selected newspapers is too low and too patchy to significantly support domestic publics to hold their own (and indirectly other) governments accountable with regard to fragmented global climate governance.

Policy relevance

This study is instructive for the media and civil society, who should both act as accountholders of governments with regard to how they act in global climate governance and its implementation. Reporting and commentaries need to reflect the overarching process, not only sporadic coverage of high-level meetings, but also critical analysis of what is achieved. They should also take a broader scope in terms of the kinds of meetings and processes in global governance that they cover. Civil society should encourage the media to increase coverage along these lines, e.g. by adequate monitoring of government actions (or lack thereof) and share this with the media.  相似文献