Autogenic avulsion,channelization and backfilling dynamics of debris‐flow fans          下载免费PDF全文

Tjalling de Haas  Wilco van den Berg  Lisanne Braat  Maarten G. Kleinhans 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1596-1619

Alluvial fans develop their semi‐conical shape by quasi‐cyclic avulsions of their geomorphologically active sector from a fixed fan apex. On debris‐flow fans, these quasi‐cyclic avulsions are poorly understood, partly because physical scale experiments on the formation of fans have been limited largely to turbidite and fluvial fans and deltas. In this study, debris‐flow fans were experimentally created under constant extrinsic forcing, and autogenic sequences of backfilling, avulsion and channelization were observed. Backfilling, avulsion and channelization were gradual processes that required multiple successive debris‐flow events. Debris flows avulsed along preferential flow paths given by the balance between steepest descent and flow inertia. In the channelization phase, debris flows became progressively longer and narrower because momentum increasingly focused on the flow front as flow narrowed, resulting in longer run‐out and deeper channels. Backfilling commenced when debris flows reached their maximum possible length and channel depth, as defined by channel slope and debris‐flow volume and composition, after which they progressively shortened and widened until the entire channel was filled and avulsion was initiated. The terminus of deposition moved upstream because the frontal lobe deposits of previous debris flows created a low‐gradient zone forcing deposition. Consequently, the next debris flow was shorter which led to more in‐channel sedimentation, causing more overbank flow in the next debris flow and resulting in reduced momentum to the flow front and shorter runout. This topographic feedback is similar to the interaction between flow and mouth bars forcing backfilling and transitions from channelized to sheet flow in turbidite and fluvial fans and deltas. Debris‐flow avulsion cycles are governed by the same large‐scale topographic compensation that drives avulsion cycles on fluvial and turbidite fans, although the detailed processes are unique to debris‐flow fans. This novel result provides a basis for modelling of debris‐flow fans with applications in hazards and stratigraphy.  相似文献   

Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models     

G. M. van Essen  S. Kahrobaei  H. van Oeveren  P. M. J. Van den Hof  J. D. Jansen 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(5):1061-1073

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.  相似文献   

Small shards and long distances — three cryptotephra layers from the Nahe palaeolake including the first discovery of Laacher See Tephra in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)     

Sascha Krüger  Christel van den Bogaard 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):8-19

Investigations of Lateglacial to Early Holocene lake sediments from the Nahe palaeolake (northern Germany) provided a high-resolution palynological record. To increase the temporal resolution of the record a targeted search for cryptotephra was carried out on the basis of pollen stratigraphy. Three cryptotephra horizons were detected and geochemically identified as G10ka series tephra (a Saksunarvatn Ash), Vedde Ash and Laacher See Tephra. Here we present the first geochemically confirmed finding of the ash from the Laacher See Eruption in Schleswig-Holstein—extending the so far detected fallout fan of the eruption further to the north-west. These finds enable direct stratigraphical correlations and underline the potential of the site for further investigations.  相似文献   

Resource Model Updating For Compositional Geometallurgical Variables     

Prior  Ángel  Tolosana-Delgado  Raimon  van den Boogaart  K. Gerald  Benndorf  Jörg 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(5):945-968

In the field of mineral resources extraction, one main challenge is to meet production targets in terms of geometallurgical properties. These properties influence the processing of the ore and are often represented in resource modeling by coregionalized variables with a complex relationship between them. Valuable data are available about geometalurgical properties and their interaction with the beneficiation process given sensor technologies during production monitoring. The aim of this research is to update resource models as new observations become available. A popular method for updating is the ensemble Kalman filter. This method relies on Gaussian assumptions and uses a set of realizations of the simulated models to derive sample covariances that can propagate the uncertainty between real observations and simulated ones. Hence, the relationship among variables has a compositional nature, such that updating these models while keeping the compositional constraints is a practical requirement in order to improve the accuracy of the updated models. This paper presents an updating framework for compositional data based on ensemble Kalman filter which allows us to work with compositions that are transformed into a multivariate Gaussian space by log-ratio transformation and flow anamorphosis. This flow anamorphosis, transforms the distribution of the variables to joint normality while reasonably keeping the dependencies between components. Furthermore, the positiveness of those variables, after updating the simulated models, is satisfied. The method is implemented in a bauxite deposit, demonstrating the performance of the proposed approach.

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Modeling and Fitting of Three-Dimensional Mineral Microstructures by Multinary Random Fields     

Teichmann  Jakob  Menzel  Peter  Heinig  Thomas  van den Boogaart  Karl Gerald 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(5):877-904

Mathematical Geosciences - Modeling a mineral microstructure accurately in three dimensions can render realistic mineralogical patterns which can be used for three-dimensional processing...  相似文献   

Discriminant Analysis for Compositional Data Incorporating Cell-Wise Uncertainties   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pospiech  Solveig  Tolosana-Delgado  Raimon  van den Boogaart  K. Gerald 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(1):1-20

Mathematical Geosciences - In the geosciences it is still uncommon to include measurement uncertainties into statistical methods such as discriminant analysis, but, especially for trace elements,...  相似文献   

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature     

Sara Maestre-Andrés  Stefan Drews  Jeroen van den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1186-1204

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

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Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods     

H. M. van den Dool 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1994,20(3)

There has been much improvement in numerical weather prediction since L.F. Richardson (1922, Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 236) wrote his famous book. NWP has primarily been successful in improving day-by-day forecasts starting from an observed detailed Initial Condition (IC) out to about a week. The purpose of this paper is to discuss first the state of the art in long-range NWP by presenting results of a new large numerical experiment (named DERF90; from Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting in 1990 out to 90 days) conducted at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) during the summer and autumn of 1990 (Section 2). One hundred and twenty eight 90-day global forecasts were made from successive daily initial conditions (IC), thus giving us ample opportunity to assess skill of forecasts at lead times beyond 1 week.We then move on to define the notion of a limit of predictability (LOP), and following a procedure by Lorenz (1982), give a numerical estimate of the LOP using the DERF90 data set. We then produce a list of reasons, as to why this estimate (LOP = 18 days) should not be taken too literally. In particular, we argue that the LOP varies as a function of the flow itself, and it would be (much) larger if we had, as we will ultimately, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for making long-lead forecasts. Last, but not least, we present results of empirical forecasts that point to modest but significant skill well beyond the traditional LOP (a few weeks).A specific recent example of empirical forecasting is discussed. Through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), experimental forecasts are being made for the United States surface temperatures at lead times of several seasons. While modest, the skill is significant in that it defies the existence or a 3-week LOP, and so demonstrates the potential for model improvements.  相似文献   

Fluid inclusion and cathodoluminescence studies on fluorite from the Kerio valley, Kenya     

J.S. Ogola  H.J.Behr  A.M. van den Kerkhof 《Journal of African Earth Sciences》1994,18(4)

The Kerio valley lies between the Elgeyo escarpment and the Tugen hills which mark the western margin of the Kenya rift valley. The main fluorite deposits are located in the southern part of the valley at Kimwarer, Choff and Kamnaon.Three types of inclusion fillings were identified: Liquid+Vapour, Liquid+Daughter Minerals and Liquid. The L+V type is dominant. Inclusions occur as clusters, trails along the crystal growth zones and as isolated ones. Low salinities, apparently lower than the 5% wt. NaCl equivalent, were established. Homogenization temperatures suggest that fluorite mineralization took place at different stages and at temperatures between 120 and 180 °C. Isolated readings above 180°C may be referring to the original inclusions in limestone. These measurements and the absence of CO₂ in the inclusions, as well as the occurrence of vugs and crustifications with fluorite, suggest that mineralization took place at relatively shallow depths.Emission spectrum lines representing Eu²⁺, Dy³⁺, Tb³⁺ and Sm³⁺ in fluorite were identified. Sm³⁺ was detected only in the pinkish luminescence of veined fluorite, whereas the pinkish zone in banded fluorite contains Tb³⁺. Eu²⁺ which gives the strongest emission lines in the blue part of the visible spectrum, apparently is responsible for the strong blue cathodoluminescence (CL) in fluorite. The dominance of Eu²⁺ peaks further points to the fact that fluorite mineralization in the Kerio valley took place in an environment that was enriched in Lanthanide Rare Earth Elements (LREE). The presence of rare earths and radioactive elements in fluorite points towards their enrichment in the environment of fluorite mineralization. A juvenile origin of mineral forming solutions is proposed.Two generations of fluorite were established: allotriomorphic fluorite, forming the matrix, and the idiomorphic variety, occurring either in barite or in druzes in early fluorite. Barite in turn forms idiomorphic crystals in allotriomorphic fluorite. Relics of calcite occur in both K-feldspars and in early fluorite. Oxides and hydroxides of Fe, Mn, Ti and Al commonly occur in open spaces in fluorite. Of significance is the presence of gold in fluorite. Fluorite mineralization is of hydrothermal origin in the post-Miocene era and was formed as a result of metasomatic replacement of marble and open space fillings.  相似文献   

Seismic waves and sources: Ari Ben-Menahem and Sarva Jit Singh. Springer, New York, 1981, xxi + 1108 pp., 307 figs., DM 182.00/approx. US $107.40, Clothbound     

A.P. van den Berg 《Tectonophysics》1984,106(1-2)

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