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Optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the republic of Korea using a scenario optimization model 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
【Title】
This study explores the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the Republic of Korea. To improve the effectiveness of Korean initial attack resources with a range of policy goals, we create a scenario optimization model that minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a predefined response. In this study, the predefined response indicates the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at a fire before the fire escapes and becomes a large fire. We use spatially explicit GIS-based information on the ecology, fire behavior, and economic characterizations important in Korea. The data include historical fire events in the Republic of Korea from 1991 to 2007, suppression costs, and spatial information on forest fire extent. Interviews with forest managers inform the range of we address in the decision model. Based on the geographic data, we conduct a sensitivity analysis by varying the parameters systematically. Information on the relative importance of the components of the settings helps us to identify “rules of thumb” for initial attack resource allocations in particular ecological and policy settings. 相似文献
This study explores the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the Republic of Korea. To improve the effectiveness of Korean initial attack resources with a range of policy goals, we create a scenario optimization model that minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a predefined response. In this study, the predefined response indicates the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at a fire before the fire escapes and becomes a large fire. We use spatially explicit GIS-based information on the ecology, fire behavior, and economic characterizations important in Korea. The data include historical fire events in the Republic of Korea from 1991 to 2007, suppression costs, and spatial information on forest fire extent. Interviews with forest managers inform the range of we address in the decision model. Based on the geographic data, we conduct a sensitivity analysis by varying the parameters systematically. Information on the relative importance of the components of the settings helps us to identify “rules of thumb” for initial attack resource allocations in particular ecological and policy settings. 相似文献
234.
XiaoJing Jia June-Yi Lee Hai Lin Andrea Alessandri Kyung-Ja Ha 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(5-6):1595-1609
Using observations and 1-month lead hindcast data from six coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models, this study investigates the interdecadal change in the leading maximum covariance analysis mode (MCA1) of atmospheric circulation in response to the changes in the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred around late 1970s. We focus on boreal winter climate variability and predictability over the North Pacific–North American (NPNA) region using December–January–February prediction initiated from November 1st in the period of 1960–1980 (P1) and 1981–2001 (P2). Observed analysis reveals that ENSO variability, the related tropical convective activity, and thus the MCA1 are considerably enhanced from P1 to P2. As a result, surface climate anomalies over the NPNA are more significantly correlated with the MCA1 in P2 than P1, particularly over North America. The six coupled models and their multi-model ensemble not only are capable of capturing the interdecadal change of the MCA1 and its relationship with surface air temperature and precipitation over the NPNA regions but also have significantly higher forecast skills for the MCA1 and the surface climate anomalies in P2 than P1. However, models have systematic biases in the spatial distribution of the MCA1. It is demonstrated that the interdecadal change in the MCA1 should contribute to the improved forecast skill of the NPNA climate during recent epoch. 相似文献
235.
Cao Dinh Trieu Cao Dinh Trong Le Van Dung Thai Anh Tuan Dinh Quoc Van Ha Vinh Long 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2014,84(3):319-325
This article presents the results of investigating triggered earthquakes in the vicinity of Tranh River No.2 Hydropower Reservoir in recent years. It is found that earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of Tranh River Hydropower Reservoir, probably associated with the Trà My — Trà BÓng fault zone. It is estimated that this fault is capable of hosting an earthquake of M~6.1. The ‘b’ value for this earthquake sequence is 0.83, which is higher than the regional ‘b’ value of 0.60. We estimate that the return period of earthquakes of M=4.5, 5.0, 5.5 and 6.0 is 11, 29, 76 and 198 months respectively. On October 22, 2012 an earthquake MS=4.6, I0=6.0 (MSK-64) occurred at 13:41:28 hrs GMT. The epicenter of the earthquake was located at a distance of 5.5 km away from the center of the dam towards the west. The focal depth is about 4.5 km, and the rupture length is about 1.8 km. 相似文献
236.
Jaeyeon Kim Seong-Sun Lee Seung-Wook Ha Won-Tak Joun YeoJin Ju Kang-Kun Lee 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5417-5428
This study aims to evaluate the application of 222Rn in groundwater as a tracer for monitoring CO2 plume migration in a shallow groundwater system, which is important to detect potential CO2 leakage in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. For this research, an artificial CO2-infused water injection experiment was performed in a shallow aquifer by monitoring hydrogeochemical parameters, including 222Rn. Radon in groundwater can be a useful tracer because of its sensitivity to sudden changes in subsurface environment. To monitor the CO2 plume migration, the data were analysed based on (a) the influence of mixing processes on the distribution of 222Rn induced by the artificial injection experiment and (b) the influence of a carrier gas role by CO2 on the variation of 222Rn. The spatio-temporal distributions of radon concentrations were successfully explained in association with horizontal and vertical mixing processes by the CO2-infused water injection. Additionally, the mixing ratios of each monitoring well were calculated, quantitatively confirming the influence of these mixing processes on the distribution of radon concentrations. Moreover, one monitoring well showed a high positive relationship between 222Rn and Total dissolved inorganic carbon (TIC) by the carrier gas effect of CO2 through volatilization from the CO2 plume. It indicated the applicability of 222Rn as a sensitive tracer to directly monitor CO2 leakage. When with a little effect of carrier gas, natural 222Rn in groundwater can be used to compute mixing ratio of CO2-infused water indicative of CO2 migration pathways. CO2 carrier gas effect can possibly increase 222Rn concentration in groundwater and, if fully verified with more field tests, will pose a great potential to be used as a natural tracer for CO2. 相似文献
237.
ABSTRACT Precipitation prediction is central in hydrology and water resources planning and management. This paper introduces a semi-empirical predictive model to predict monthly precipitation and compares its predictive skill with those of machine learning (ML) methods. The stochastic method presented herein estimates monthly precipitation with one-step-ahead prediction properties. The ML predictive skill of the algorithms is evaluated by predicting monthly precipitation relying on the statistical association between precipitation and environmental and topographic factors. The semi-empirical predictive model features non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for investigating the influence of multiple predictor variables on precipitation. The semi-empirical predictive model’s parameters are optimized with the hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LM), or GALMA, yielding a validated model with high predictive skill. The methodologies are illustrated with data from Hubei Province, China, which comprise 27 meteorological station datasets from 1988–2017. The empirical results provide valuable insights for developing semi-empirical rainfall prediction models. 相似文献
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239.
Park Heon-Joon Ko Kil-Wan Song Young-Hun Song Myung-Jun Jin Seokwoo Ha Jeong-Gon Kim Dong-Soo 《Acta Geotechnica》2020,15(9):2637-2648
Acta Geotechnica - A disconnected piled raft (DPR) foundation has been introduced as an effective pile design to reduce the vertical loading experienced by the pile. The characterization of DPRs... 相似文献