In this work we evaluate seasonal forecasts performed with the global environmental multiscale model (GEM) using a variable resolution approach and with a high-resolution region over different geographical locations. Therefore, using two grid positions, one over North America and the other over the tropical Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean, we compare the seasonal predictions performed with the variable resolution approach with seasonal forecast performed with the uniform grid GEM model. For each model configuration, a ten-member ensemble forecast of 4?months is performed starting from the first of December of selected ENSO winters between 1982 and 2000. The sea surface temperature anomaly of the month preceding the forecast (November) is persisted throughout the forecast period. There is not enough evidence to indicate that a Stretch-Grid configuration has a clear advantage in seasonal prediction compared to a Uniform-Grid configuration. Forecasts with highly resolved grids placed over North America have more accurate seasonal mean anomalies and more skill in representing near surface temperature over the North American continent. For 500-hPa geopotential height, however, no configuration stands out to be consistently superior in forecasting the ENSO related seasonal mean anomalies and skill score. 相似文献
Fire has become one of the main disturbances in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. It is known that elevation influences the occurrence of fire events; however, this variable has been poorly studied, although it is of particularly relevance to the Mexican topography. The objective of this research was to analyze the altitudinal distribution of forest fires in Mexico over a period of 11 years. Elevation gradients were defined based on a Digital Elevation Model and the main ecoregions of the country: (1) shrubland and tropical forests (0–1000 masl), (2) grasslands (1001–2000 masl) and (3) temperate forests (>?2000 masl). Each ecoregion was divided into Climate Research Units and the number of fires per unit was quantified. The G Getis–Ord statistic was applied in order to define the spatial patterns presented by the fire events. A relationship between the occurrence of fires and the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon was also determined through a Pearson correlation. The results showed that the occurrence of fire events presented variability along elevation gradients, with elevation a determining factor in their occurrence. Gradient 3, with the highest elevation, had the greatest number of fires and also presented the largest area of fire event clustering. These results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of forest fires in Mexico and are of value to appropriate decision-making for effective fire management.
Abstract— Aubritic oldhamite (CaS) has been the subject of intense study recently because it is the major rare-earth-element (REE) carrier in aubrites, has a variety of REE patterns comparable to those in unequilibrated enstatite chondrites and has an extraordinarily high melting point as a pure substance (2525 °C). These latter two facts have caused some authors to assert that much of the aubritic oldhamite is an unmelted nebular relict, rather than of igneous origin. We have conducted REE partitioning experiments between oldhamite and silicate melt using an aubritic bulk composition at 1200 °C and 1300 °C and subsolidus annealing experiments. All experiments produced crystalline oldhamite, with a range of compositions, glass and Fe metal, as well as enstatite, SiO2, diopside and troilite in some charges. Rare-earth-element partitioning is strongly dependent on oldhamite composition and temperature. Subsolidus annealing results in larger partition coefficients for some oldhamite grains, particularly those in contact with troilite. All experimental oldhamite/silicate melt partition coefficients are <20 and the vast majority are <5, which is similar to those reported in the literature and is two orders of magnitude less than those inferred for natural aubritic oldhamite. These partition coefficients preclude a simple igneous model, since REE abundances in aubritic oldhamite are greater than would be predicted on the basis of the experimental partition coefficients. Our experimental partition coefficients are consistent with a relict nebular origin for aubritic oldhamite, although experimental evidence that suggests melting of oldhamite at temperatures lower than that reached on the aubrite parent body are clearly inconsistent with the nebular model. Our experiments are consistent also with a complex igneous history. Oldhamite REE patterns may reflect a complex process of partial melting, melt removal, fractional crystallization and subsolidus annealing and exsolution. These mechanisms (primarily fractional crystallization and subsolidus annealing) can produce a wide range of REE patterns in aubritic oldhamite, as well as elevated (100–1000 × CI) REE abundances observed in aubritic oldhamite. 相似文献
Parameters of wind waves in a deep-water zone of a reservoir is studied in the context of wave influence on shore stability. Data from measurements of wave parameters in reservoirs of Czech Republic are used. The relationship between the period and phase velocity of wind waves is discussed. 相似文献
The present article describes the use of plant bioassays for the detection of genotoxins in the aquatic environment and gives an overview of test methods, their detection spectrum for environmental mutagens and carcinogens and their limitations and pitfalls. The most widely used test systems are micronucleus assays with meiotic cells of Tradescantia and with meristematic root tip cells of Allium and Vicia. In the last years, protocols for single cell gel electrophoresis assays have been developed, which can be conducted with a variety of species. Also various gene mutation test procedures have been developed with plants but they have hardly ever been used in environmental studies. Plants detect a broad variety of environmentally relevant genotoxins, in particular directly acting compounds. Many pesticides and industrial chemicals caused positive results; plant assays are also a unique tool for the detection of DNA‐reactive carcinogenic heavy metals in the environment. In many studies with complex mixtures, positive results were obtained which indicates that plants are sufficiently sensitive to detect effects without concentration of water samples. One of the shortcomings of the use of plants as indicators is their lack of sensitivity towards certain classes of promutagens such as nitrosamines, heterocyclic amines, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). However, the former compounds are hardly encountered in the environment and PAHs can easily be detected chemically and in other mutagenicity tests. Taken together, the currently available data show that plant bioassays are a useful component of test batteries for environmental monitoring. 相似文献
Recent research has suggested that warmer conditions, that may result from increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, may induce the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Miller and de Vernal 1992) through the impact of warmer temperature on the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere and thus on precipitation. In this study we examine this possibility by using a coupled energy balance climate-thermo-dynamic sea ice model. Results indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions of CO2 induced warming.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil 相似文献
The natural abundance of radiocarbon (14C) provides unique insight into the source and cycling of sedimentary organic matter. Radiocarbon analysis of bacterial phospholipid lipid fatty acids (PLFAs) in salt-marsh sediments of southeast Georgia (USA)—one heavily contaminated by petroleum residues—was used to assess the fate of petroleum-derived carbon in sediments and incorporation of fossil carbon into microbial biomass. PLFAs that are common components of eubacterial cell membranes (e.g., branched C15 and C17, 10-methyl-C16) were depleted in 14C in the contaminated sediment (mean Δ14C value of +25 ± 19‰ for bacterial PLFAs) relative to PLFAs in uncontaminated “control” sediment (Δ14C = +101 ± 12‰). We suggest that the 14C-depletion in bacterial PLFAs at the contaminated site results from microbial metabolism of petroleum and subsequent incorporation of petroleum-derived carbon into bacterial membrane lipids. A mass balance calculation indicates that 6-10% of the carbon in bacterial PLFAs at the oiled site could derive from petroleum residues. These results demonstrate that even weathered petroleum may contain components of sufficient lability to be a carbon source for biomass production by marsh sediment microorganisms. Furthermore, a small but significant fraction of fossil carbon is assimilated even in the presence of a much larger pool of presumably more-labile and faster-cycling carbon substrates. 相似文献