1959-2003年青海省干湿变化分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

史津梅  唐红玉  许维俊  王志伟 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(6):356-361

利用青海省1959-2003年气象资料,计算了修正的Palmer干旱指数,并对其进行了分析。结果表明：在青海省旱涝监测中,PDSI指数反映旱涝程度更为客观;青海省的干旱主要以轻旱为主;夏秋季年际干湿交替较冬春季频繁,变化振幅也较大;秋季青海省干旱化倾向最为严重,冬春季出现轻旱几率最大。另外,春季干旱总面积在减小;夏季轻旱面积增加,而中旱、重旱面积在减小;秋冬季重旱面积在增加。  相似文献   

A hybrid ensemble method for improved prediction of slope stability          下载免费PDF全文

Chongchong Qi  Xiaolin Tang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(15):1823-1839

Accurate prediction of slope stability is a significant issue in geomechanics with many artificial intelligence (AI) techniques being utilised. However, the application of AI has not reached its full potential because of the lack of more robust algorithms. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid ensemble method for the improved prediction of slope stability using classifier ensembles and genetic algorithm. Gaussian process classification, quadratic discriminant analysis, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, adaptive boosted decision trees, and k‐nearest neighbours were chosen to be individual AI techniques, and the weighted majority voting was used as the combination method. Validation method was chosen to be the 10‐fold cross‐validation, and performance measures were selected to be the accuracy, the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Grid search and genetic algorithm were used for the hyperparameter tuning and weight tuning respectively. The results show that the proposed hybrid ensemble method has great potential in improving the prediction of slope stability. Compared with individual classifiers, the optimum ensemble classifier achieved the highest AUC value (0.943) and the highest accuracy (0.902) on the testing set, denoting that the predictive performance has been improved. The optimum ensemble classifier with the Youden's cut‐off was recommended for slope stability prediction with respect to the AUC value, the accuracy, the true positive rate, and the true negative rate. This research indicates that the use of the classifier ensembles, rather than the search for the ideal individual classifiers, might help for the slope stability prediction.  相似文献   

The effect of density-driven flow on the transport of high-concentration solutes in the hyporheic zone     

Guangqiu Jin  Yongfei Hao  Jie Wei  Yihang Yang  Xiaoxiao Shen  Hongwu Tang  Ling Li 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13949

In this study, both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the effect of density-driven flow on the transport of high-concentration pollutants in the hyporheic zone. The results show that the density gradient can change the flow of pore water and the strong density-driven flow can lead to an unstable flow, which increases the effect of preferential flow and thus causes the appearance of solute fingers in the hyporheic zone. Notably, these solute fingers become more obvious with the increase of depth. The appearance of solute fingers depends on the relative strength of the pumping exchange and density gradient, which are represented by the dimensionless number M* and N* respectively. Finger flows appear near the interface when M^* is less than 0.5 N^*. This study may contribute to better understanding the transport and destination of solutes and thus may provide some insights into the assessment on pollution incidents.  相似文献   

简单随机模式进一步分析(Ⅰ)——非线性外通函数项处理     

唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1992,(1)

本文利用等效线性化法和Fokker-planck方程,对一个简单的非线性随机模式非线性项在不同气候时期的参数化进行了讨论,得到了冰期、间冰期和现代气候的概率分布密度及输出响应特征。  相似文献   

International Symposium on Five Decades of Radioglaciology,International Glaciological Society          下载免费PDF全文

Tang Xueyuan 《极地研究》1988,31(4):490

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景泰地震前后兰州台的中期形变异常     

唐九安  常千军  彭伟荣  周志宇 《大地测量与地球动力学》1995,(3)

给出了兰州台浮子水管倾斜仪和石英伸缩仪１９８７～１９９３年间Ｍ２波潮汐因子的年度调和分析结果，然后对各分量月均值进行了残差分析，并绘出去除长期项后的倾斜矢量图，据此探讨了景泰地震的中期前兆异常和震后效应特征。  相似文献   

一种新的射电源表综合方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐正宏  须同祺 《天文学报》1996,37(3):320-326

本文提出利用正交完备函数系拟合射电源表的局部系统差，并通过选择初始星表确定综合射电源表系统的轴方向，在综合计算时以射电源表包含的所有源坐标决定其轴方向．整个综合过程概念清晰，计算量较小．检验结果表明，用新方法得到的综合射电源表可靠性与稳定性都很好．  相似文献   

Flare morphologies and coronal field configurations     

Frances Tang 《Solar physics》1985,102(1-2):131-145

Chromospheric flares are the footpoints of closed coronal field lines. In this paper we present different flare morphologies from observations and examine the implied coronal field configurations above the flaring region. Flares are grouped according to the number of ribbons, from unresolved compact point-like flare to four-ribbon flares. Quiet region flares having characteristics all their own are also presented here.We find that compact, unresolved point-like flares have two distinct footpoints when viewed in offband H. The footpoints of some of the compact flares also show increased separation as a function of time.Unlike large two-ribbon flares, the ribbons of many small and/or short-lived two-ribbon flares usually have no measurable separation of ribbons.Multiple-ribbon (three or more ribbon) flares consist of two or more pairs of two-ribbons, or two or more sets of field lines. Parity of the ribbons in multiple-ribbon flares, or the lack of it, depends on the magnetic makeup of the locale of the ribbons.Flares in old quiet regions resulting from sudden filament eruptions show discrete small patches of emissions reflecting the spottiness of decayed and dispersed field of quiet region.  相似文献   

广西秋季层状云微物理特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张正国  卢广献  汤达章  韦增岸 《气象科技》2018,46(3):545-555

利用2012年11—12月在广西进行的11架次飞机云物理探测资料对层状云宏微观物理结构特征进行研究,探讨层状云降水机制。结果表明:广西层状云微物理特征与我国其他地区的存在显著差异。层状云典型的微物理垂直结构为在云下层是由凝结作用生成云滴,随上升气流发展,云滴数浓度、平均直径和液态水含量随高度逐步增加,云滴谱拓宽,谱型向大尺度的方向扩展,至云中上层增大至最大值后随高度减小。冷暖混合云结构的高层云冷云部分的冰相粒子落入暖层后对其微物理结构产生影响,主要是使云滴谱展宽,CIP云滴平均直径垂直分布变幅增大,有利于暖层中碰并过程的启动和发展。层积云微物理水平分布呈现不连续跳跃式变化特征,存在对流泡结构,对流泡内各微物理量高于泡外,云滴谱型向大尺度移动,对流泡结构是层积云形成降水的重要机制。  相似文献   

Potential impacts of climate change on storage conditions for commercial agriculture: an example for potato production in Michigan     

Julie A. Winkler  Logan Soldo  Ying Tang  Todd Forbush  David S. Douches  Chris M. Long  Courtney P. Leisner  C. Robin Buell 《Climatic change》2018,151(2):275-287

Climate change is anticipated to influence all parts of agricultural production systems. However, the potential impacts on crop storage have rarely been assessed, even though storage is an important component of a grower’s marketing strategy and is essential for the continuous supply of a commodity for processors, exporters, and consumers. The Michigan chip-processing potato industry provides an example of the importance of crop storage. Michigan is the largest producer of chip-processing potatoes in the USA, and potatoes are stored on farms from September to June. We use an ensemble of climate projections developed for three future time slices (early, mid, and late century) from 16 climate models forced by three greenhouse gas concentration pathways to assess future changes in potato storage conditions. Our findings indicate an increased future demand for ventilation and/or refrigeration immediately after harvest and again in spring and early summer, even for the early-century time slice. Furthermore, the period of reliably cold storage temperatures during winter is anticipated, when averaged across all models, to shorten by 11–17 days in Michigan’s primary production area and 14–20 days in the more southern secondary area by mid-century, and by 15–29 days and 31–35 days, respectively, for the northern and southern production areas by late century. The level of uncertainty, as indicated by the ensemble range, is large, although the sign of the projected changes in storage parameters is consistent. This case study provides an example of the potentially large effects of climate change on the storage conditions for agricultural commodities.  相似文献