On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Björn Guse  Matthias Pfannerstill  Michael Strauch  Dominik E. Reusser  Stefan Lüdtke  Martin Volk  Hoshin Gupta  Nicola Fohrer 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2255-2270

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Adaptive growth reduction in response to fish kairomones allows mosquito larvae (Culex pipiens) to reduce predation risk     

Jonas Jourdan  Jasmin Baier  Rüdiger Riesch  Sven Klimpel  Bruno Streit  Ruth Müller  Martin Plath 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2016,78(2):303-314

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What Can be Expected from the GRACE-FO Laser Ranging Interferometer for Earth Science Applications?     

Frank Flechtner  Karl-Hans Neumayer  Christoph Dahle  Henryk Dobslaw  Elisa Fagiolini  Jean-Claude Raimondo  Andreas Güntner 《Surveys in Geophysics》2016,37(2):453-470

The primary objective of the gravity recovery and climate experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, due for launch in August 2017, is to continue the GRACE time series of global monthly gravity field models. For this, evolved versions of the GRACE microwave instrument, GPS receiver, and accelerometer will be used. A secondary objective is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a laser ranging interferometer (LRI) in improving the satellite-to-satellite tracking measurement performance. In order to investigate the expected enhancement for Earth science applications, we have performed a full-scale simulation over the nominal mission lifetime of 5 years using a realistic orbit scenario and error assumptions both for instrument and background model errors. Unfiltered differences between the synthetic input and the finally recovered time-variable monthly gravity models show notable improvements with the LRI, on a global scale, of the order of 23 %. The gain is realized for wavelengths smaller than 240 km in case of Gaussian filtering but decreases to just a few percent when anisotropic filtering is applied. This is also confirmed for some typical regional Earth science applications which show randomly distributed patterns of small improvements but also degradations when using DDK4-filtered LRI-based models. Analysis of applied error models indicates that accelerometer noise followed by ocean tide and non-tidal mass variation errors are the main contributors to the overall GRACE-FO gravity model error. Improvements in these fields are therefore necessary, besides optimized constellations, to make use of the increased LRI accuracy and to significantly improve gravity field models from next-generation gravity missions.  相似文献   

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects     

Petra Döll  Hervé Douville  Andreas Güntner  Hannes Müller Schmied  Yoshihide Wada 《Surveys in Geophysics》2016,37(2):195-221

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO₂ concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.  相似文献   

Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade     

Hartmut H. Hellmer  Monika Rhein  Günther Heinemann  Janna Abalichin  Wafa Abouchami  Oliver Baars  Ulrich Cubasch  Klaus Dethloff  Lars Ebner  Eberhard Fahrbach  Martin Frank  Gereon Gollan  Richard J. Greatbatch  Jens Grieger  Vladimir M. Gryanik  Micha Gryschka  Judith Hauck  Mario Hoppema  Oliver Huhn  Torsten Kanzow  Boris P. Koch  Gert König-Langlo  Ulrike Langematz  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Christof Lüpkes  Stephan Paul  Annette Rinke  Bjoern Rost  Michiel Rutgers van der Loeff  Michael Schröder  Gunther Seckmeyer  Torben Stichel  Volker Strass  Ralph Timmermann  Scarlett Trimborn  Uwe Ulbrich  Celia Venchiarutti  Ulrike Wacker  Sascha Willmes  Dieter Wolf-Gladrow 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(11):1379-1413

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Automated Determination of Sulfadiazine in Water,Fish Plasma and Muscle by HPLC with On‐Line Column‐Switching          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammet Altunok  Armin König  Waleed M.M. Mahmoud Ahmed  Tarek Haddad  Tibiriçá G. Vasconcelos  Klaus Kümmerer 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2016,44(8):967-974

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Statement to comment by K. Föllmi on ,,Neubenennungen lithostratigraphischer Einheiten in der helvetischen Kreide“     

Schweizerisches Komitee für Stratigraphie  Thierry Adatte  Jean-Pierre Berger  Hansruedi Bläsi  Reto Burkhalter  Stephan DallAgnolo  Danielle Decrouez  Hanspeter Funk  Heinz Furrer  Yves Gouffon  Hansruedi Graf  Werner Heckendorn  Wilfried Winkler 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2009,102(3):519-519

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Contribution of a Dense Population of the Brittle Star <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acrocnida brachiata</Emphasis> (Montagu) to the Biogeochemical Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in a Temperate Coastal Ecosystem     

Dominique Davoult  Jérôme Harlay  Franck Gentil 《Estuaries and Coasts》2009,32(6):1103-1110

The production of organic matter and calcium carbonate by a dense population of the brittle star Acrocnida brachiata (Echinodermata) was calculated using demographic structure, population density, and relations between the size (disk diameter) and the ash-free dry weight (AFDW) or the calcimass. During a 2-year survey in the Bay of Seine (Eastern English Channel, France), organic production varied from 29 to 50 g_AFDW m⁻² year⁻¹ and CaCO₃ production from 69 to 104 g_CaCO3 m⁻² year⁻¹. Respiration was estimated between 1.7 and 2.0 mol_CO2 m⁻² year⁻¹. Using the molar ratio (ψ) of CO₂ released: CaCO₃ precipitated, this biogenic precipitation of calcium carbonate would result in an additional release between 0.5 and 0.7 mol_CO2 m⁻² year⁻¹ that represented 23% and 26% of total CO₂ fluxes (sum of calcification and respiration). The results of the present study suggest that calcification in temperate shallow environments should be considered as a significant source of CO₂ to seawater and thus a potential source of CO₂ to the atmosphere, emphasizing the important role of the biomineralization (estimated here) and dissolution (endoskeletons of dead individuals) in the carbon budget of temperate coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

Influence of shallow infiltration on time-lapse ERT: Experience of advanced interpretation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rémi Clément  Marc Descloitres  Thomas Günther  Olivier Ribolzi  Anatoli Legchenko 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2009,341(10-11):886-898

Previous time-lapse Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) studies have experienced difficulties in reconstructing reliable calculated resistivity changes in the subsurface. Increases or decreases of resistivity appear in the calculated ERT image where no changes were noted in the subsurface, leading to erroneous hydrological interpretations of the geophysical results. In this article, we investigate how a variation of actual resistivity with time and at shallow depth can influence time-lapse ERT results and produce resistivity artefacts at depth. We use 1 and 2-D numerical modelling to simulate infiltration scenarios. Using a standard time-lapse inversion, we demonstrate the resistivity artefact production according to the electrode spacing parameter. We used an advanced inversion methodology with a decoupling line at shallow depth to attenuate or remove resistivity artefacts. We also applied this methodology to a field data set obtained in a semi-arid environment in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Here, time-lapse ERT shows several resistivity artefacts of calculated resistivity if a standard inversion is used. We demonstrate the importance of a dense sampling of shallow resistivity variations at shallow depth. Advanced interpretation allows us to significantly attenuate or remove the resistivity artefact production at intermediate depth and produce reliable interpretation of hydrological processes.  相似文献   

Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Roger M. W. Musson  Souad Sellami  Wolfgang Brüstle 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2009,102(1):107-120

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.  相似文献