Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Terry C. K. Lee  Francis W. Zwiers  Min Tsao 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):263-281

A range of existing statistical approaches for reconstructing historical temperature variations from proxy data are compared using both climate model data and real-world paleoclimate proxy data. We also propose a new method for reconstruction that is based on a state-space time series model and Kalman filter algorithm. The state-space modelling approach and the recently developed RegEM method generally perform better than their competitors when reconstructing interannual variations in Northern Hemispheric mean surface air temperature. On the other hand, a variety of methods are seen to perform well when reconstructing surface air temperature variability on decadal time scales. An advantage of the new method is that it can incorporate additional, non-temperature, information into the reconstruction, such as the estimated response to external forcing, thereby permitting a simultaneous reconstruction and detection analysis as well as future projection. An application of these extensions is also demonstrated in the paper.  相似文献   

The pulsating hot subdwarf Balloon 090100001: results of the 2005 multisite campaign     

A. Baran  R. Oreiro  A. Pigulski  F. Pérez Hernández  A. Ulla  M. D. Reed  C. Rodríguez-López  P. Moskalik  S.-L. Kim  W.-P. Chen  R. Crowe  M. Siwak  L. Armendarez  P. M. Binder  K.-J. Choo  A. Dye  J. R. Eggen  R. Garrido  J. M. González Pérez  S. L. Harms  F.-Y. Huang  D. Kozie&#;  H.-T. Lee  J. MacDonald  L. Fox Machado  T. Monserrat  J. Stevick  S. Stewart  D. Terry  A.-Y. Zhou  S. Zo&#;a 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,392(3):1092-1105

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Abundance ratios in red-sequence galaxies over a wide mass range: the 'X-planes' for magnesium, calcium, carbon and nitrogen     

Russell J. Smith  John R. Lucey  Michael J. Hudson  Terry J. Bridges 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(1):119-132

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Hotspots and a clumpy disc: variability of brown dwarfs and stars in the young σ Ori cluster     

A. Scholz  X. Xu  R. Jayawardhana  K. Wood  J. Eislöffel  C. Quinn 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(2):873-886

The properties of accretion discs around stars and brown dwarfs in the σ Ori cluster (age 3 Myr) are studied based on near-infrared (IR) time series photometry supported by mid-IR spectral energy distributions (SEDs). We monitor ∼30 young low-mass sources over eight nights in the J and K band using the duPont telescope at Las Campanas. We find three objects showing variability with J -band amplitudes  ≥0.5 mag  ; five additional objects exhibit low-level variations. All three highly variable sources have been previously identified as highly variable; thus, we establish the long-term nature of their flux changes. The light curves contain periodic components with time-scales of  ∼0.5–8 d  , but have additional irregular variations superimposed – the characteristic behaviour for classical T Tauri stars. Based on the colour variability, we conclude that hotspots are the dominant cause of variations in two objects (#19 and #33), including one likely brown dwarf, with spot temperatures in the range of 6000–7000 K. For the third one (#2), a brown dwarf or very low-mass star, inhomogeneities at the inner edge of the disc are the likely origin of variability. Based on mid-IR data from Spitzer , we confirm that the three highly variable sources are surrounded by circum-(sub)-stellar discs. They show typical SEDs for T Tauri-like objects. Using SED models, we infer an enhanced scaleheight in the disc for the object #2, which favours the detection of disc inhomogeneities in light curves and is thus consistent with the information from variability. In the σ Ori cluster, about every fifth accreting low-mass object shows persistent high-level photometric variability. We demonstrate that estimates for fundamental parameters in such objects can be significantly improved by determining the extent and origin of the variations.  相似文献   

Gemini/GMOS spectroscopy of the spheroid and globular cluster system of NGC 3923     

Mark A. Norris  Ray M. Sharples  Terry Bridges  Karl Gebhardt  Duncan A. Forbes  Robert Proctor  Favio Raul Faifer  Juan Carlos Forte  Michael A. Beasley  Stephen E. Zepf  David A. Hanes 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,385(1):40-52

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The formation of the Oort cloud in open cluster environments     

Nathan A. Kaib  Thomas Quinn 《Icarus》2008,197(1):221-238

We study the influence of an open cluster environment on the formation and current structure of the Oort cloud. To do this, we have run 19 different simulations of the formation of the Oort cloud for 4.5 Gyrs. In each simulation, the Solar System spends its first 100 Myrs in a different open cluster environment before transitioning to its current field environment. We find that, compared to forming in the field environment, the inner Oort cloud is preferentially loaded with comets while the Sun resides in the open cluster and that most of this material remains locked in the interior of the cloud for the next 4.4 Gyrs. In addition, the outer Oort cloud trapping efficiencies we observe in our simulations are lower than previous formation models by about a factor of 2, possibly implying an even more massive early planetesimal disk. Furthermore, some of our simulations reproduce the orbits of observed extended scattered disk objects, which may serve as an observational constraint on the Sun's early environment. Depending on the particular open cluster environment, the properties of the inner Oort cloud and extended scattered disk can vary widely. On the other hand, the outer portions of the Oort cloud in each of our simulations are all similar.  相似文献   

Increasing Singapore's resilience to drought          下载免费PDF全文

Alan D. Ziegler  James P. Terry  Grahame J.H. Oliver  Daniel A. Friess  Chong Joon Chuah  Winston T.L. Chow  Robert J. Wasson 《水文研究》2014,28(15):4543-4548

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Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error     

Harry West  Michael Horswell  Nevil Quinn 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(6):1172-1193

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.  相似文献   

Adaptation and poverty reduction in Mozambique: an opportunity for developing countries to lead§     

Colin F. Quinn  Jennifer F. Howard  Chen Chen  Joyce E. Coffee  Carlos E. Quintela  Britt A. Parker 《Climate Policy》2018,18(2):146-150

Climate change disproportionately impacts the world’s poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of ‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability’, and the United States’ commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries’ policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks.  相似文献   

Optimal Processing of Marine High-Resolution Seismic Reflection (Chirp) Data     

Quinn  R.  Bull  J.M.  Dix  J.K. 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1998,20(1):13-20

Chirp frequency-modulated (FM) systems offer deterministic, repeatable source-signatures for high-resolution, normal incidence marine seismic reflection data acquisition. An optimal processing sequence for uncorrelated Chirp data is presented to demonstrate the applicability of some conventional seismic reflection algorithms to high-resolution data sets, and to emphasise the importance of a known source-signature. An improvement of greater than 60dB in the signal- to-noise ratio is realised from correlating the FM reflection data with the transmitted pulse. Interpretability of ringy deconvolved data is enhanced by the calculation of instantaneous amplitudes. The signal-to-noise ratio and lateral reflector continuity are both improved by the application of predictive filters whose effectiveness are aided by the repeatability of the Chirp source.  相似文献