A 22-member ensemble from CMIP6 is used to analyze the projected changes and seasonal behavior in surface air temperature over South America during the twenty-first century. In the future projections, CMIP6 models shown a high dependency to the socioeconomic pathway over each country of South America. The multimodel ensemble projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South America during the twenty-first century under the three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Besides, it was possible to identify consistent positive trends across all the models, with values between 0.45 ± 0.05 and 2.05 ± 0.31 °C cy−1 under the historical experiment, however largest trends occurs for the projection periods (near, mid and far future), with values between − 0.87 ± 0.84 to 2.88 ± 0.60 °C cy−1 (SSP1-2.6), 1.41 ± 0.88 to 5.32 ± 0.81 °C cy−1 (SSP2-4.5) and 4.75 ± 0.58 to 8.76 ± 0.74 °C cy−1 (SSP5-8.5) with maximum values at Bolivia, Brasil, Paraguay and Venezuela whilst minimum values for Argentina and Uruguay, regardless of the SSP scenario used. From the seasonal behavior analysis was possible to identify maximum values between January and March whilst minimum between June and July, except in Brasil, Venezuela and Guyana–Surinam–French Guayana, with annual range decreasing as the latidude decreases. By the end of the twenty-first century the annual mean temperature over South america is projected to increase between 0.92–2.11 °C, 0.97–3.37 °C and 1.27–6.14 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projection scenarios respectively. This projected increase of temperature across the continent will produce negative repercussions in the social, economic and political spheres. The results obtained in this study provide insights about the CMIP6 performance over this region, which can be used to develop adaptation strategies and might be useful for the adaptation to the climate change.
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Petek Ayda Ustaömer Timur Ustaömer Axel Gerdes Gernold Zulauf 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(1):23-41
NW Turkey is a mosaic of several continental and oceanic units, that were amalgamated by collisional and strike–slip tectonics.
One of the continental units is the İstanbul terrane, the Palaeozoic strata of which comprise an Early Ordovician to Early
Carboniferous transgressive sedimentary sequence. The basement to the Palaeozoic succession is exposed in the Bolu Massif
and is represented by a thick meta-volcanic unit intruded by Late Neoproterozoic (ca. 575 Ma) felsic magma. This meta-igneous
basement is considered to be a sliver of the Cadomian magmatic arc. Unconformably overlying Early Ordovician strata start
with red fluvial clastics (ca. 3,000 m), overlain by shallow marine quartzites (<250 m). Detrital zircons were separated from
an Ordovician quartzite sample located 5 m above the contact with the underlying red fluvial clastics. We have dated a total
of 99 zircon grains by U–Pb method using laser ablation-sector field-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (LA-SF-ICP-MS).
The ages (97% are >90% concordant) range from 530 to 2550 Ma. The dominance (44 grains) of Neoproterozoic zircon ages (around
540, 570, 600–640 and 700–800 Ma) rules out any link of the İstanbul terrane with Baltica. The large amount (40 grains) of
Grenvillian and Meso- to Palaeo-proterozoic ages (around 1.0–1.2, 1.3–1.6, 1.7–1.8, and 1.9–2.1 Ga) in the zircon population
further rules out a link to Cadomian and Minoan terranes, but is indicative for Amazonian source areas. The new age data suggest
the İstanbul terrane to be a peri-Gondwanan terrane that was located at the northwestern margin of Gondwana close to Amazonia.
This terrane should have travelled a large distance in the Phanerozoic times. 相似文献
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Vladimir Panchuk Maxim Yushkin Timur Fatkhullin Mikhail Sachkov 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,353(1):163-168
Electron acoustic blow up solitary waves and periodic waves are studied in a classical unmagnetized plasma containing cold electron fluid, kappa distributed hot electrons and stationary ions. We obtain Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation for electron acoustic waves (EAWs) using the reductive perturbation technique (RPT). Applying bifurcation theory of planar dynamical systems to the obtained KdV equation, we prove the existence of electron acoustic blowup solitary and periodic wave solutions. Depending on different physical parameters, two types of exact explicit solutions of the mentioned waves are derived. Our model may be applied to explain blow up solitary and periodic wave features that may occur in the planetary magnetosphere and the plasma sheet boundary layer. 相似文献
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Cengiz Cinku Mualla Heller Friedrich Ustaömer Timur 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(7):2575-2592
International Journal of Earth Sciences - A paleomagnetic study of Cretaceous arc type rocks in the Central-Eastern Pontides and in the Southeastern Taurides investigates the tectonic and... 相似文献
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天马望远镜是目前亚洲最大的全方位可转动的射电望远镜。连续谱观测对于天马望远镜具有重要意义。主要介绍天马望远镜连续谱观测系统的相关信息及其实现情况,包括:天马望远镜连续谱观测的过程、天马望远镜连续谱观测系统的硬件和软件系统的组成,以及连续谱观测系统的测试观测结果。在C波段6.5 GHz的观测结果表明:连续谱观测系统可实现单点观测和成图观测。修正后指向误差的平均值为2.2″,均方根误差为4.3″。目前该系统已用于天马望远镜的连续谱观测,取得了较好的结果,验证了系统的有效性。 相似文献
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Ichsan Ibrahim Hakim L.Malasan Chatief Kunjaya Anton Timur Jaelani Gerhana Puannandra Putri Mitra Djamal 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2018,(4)
In astronomy,the brightness of a source is typically expressed in terms of magnitude.Conventionally,the magnitude is defined by the logarithm of received flux.This relationship is known as the Pogson formula.For received flux with a small signal to noise ratio(S/N),however,the formula gives a large magnitude error.We investigate whether the use of Inverse Hyperbolic Sine function(hereafter referred to as the Asinh magnitude)in the modified formulae could allow for an alternative calculation of magnitudes for small S/N flux,and whether the new approach is better for representing the brightness of that region.We study the possibility of increasing the detection level of gravitational microlensing using 40 selected microlensing light curves from the 2013 and 2014 seasons and by using the Asinh magnitude.Photometric data of the selected events are obtained from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment(OGLE).We found that utilization of the Asinh magnitude makes the events brighter compared to using the logarithmic magnitude,with an average of about 3.42×10~(-2)magnitude and an average in the difference of error between the logarithmic and the Asinh magnitude of about 2.21×10(-2)magnitude.The microlensing events OB140847 and OB140885 are found to have the largest difference values among the selected events.Using a Gaussian fit to find the peak for OB140847 and OB140885,we conclude statistically that the Asinh magnitude gives better mean squared values of the regression and narrower residual histograms than the Pogson magnitude.Based on these results,we also attempt to propose a limit in magnitude value for which use of the Asinh magnitude is optimal with small S/N data. 相似文献
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