Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011     

B. Todd  N. Macdonald  R. C. Chiverrell  C. Caminade  J. M. Hooke 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):673-687

Severe droughts have affected much of Europe over the last 40 years. A limitation to current understanding of droughts is based around drought characteristics (e.g. frequency, severity and duration) as there are limited long series (>100 years) with well documented severe droughts. This is further complicated with future climate projections, and the potential implications that these will have on drought characteristics. This paper presents reconstructed drought series from 1697, 1726 and 1767 to 2011 for three sites in southeast England. Precipitation and temperature series are reconstructed to generate long drought series using the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, enabling determination of drought characteristics. The reconstructions identify multiple drought-rich periods, 1730–1760 and 1890-present, with an increasing tendency towards more severe droughts during the latter period. Prolonged rainfall deficiencies are found to be the primary cause of severe droughts, with rising temperatures increasing soil moisture deficit, therefore intensifying drought conditions. Cycles at the 6–10 year period identify a sub-decadal to decadal signal during drought-rich periods. Analysis of the spatial variability of droughts finds that whilst severe events are predominantly regionally coherent, there are notable variations in severity and duration between sites, which are attributed to localised rainfall variability. This study extends the temporal range of previous drought studies and places recent drought events in a longer context improving upon existing ‘benchmark’ drought analyses in southeast England; with far-reaching implications for local, national and continental scale reduction of drought vulnerability and risk.  相似文献   

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance     

J. Todd Hoeksema  Yang Liu  Keiji Hayashi  Xudong Sun  Jesper Schou  Sebastien Couvidat  Aimee Norton  Monica Bobra  Rebecca Centeno  K. D. Leka  Graham Barnes  Michael Turmon 《Solar physics》2014,289(9):3483-3530

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) began near-continuous full-disk solar measurements on 1 May 2010 from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). An automated processing pipeline keeps pace with observations to produce observable quantities, including the photospheric vector magnetic field, from sequences of filtergrams. The basic vector-field frame list cadence is 135 seconds, but to reduce noise the filtergrams are combined to derive data products every 720 seconds. The primary 720 s observables were released in mid-2010, including Stokes polarization parameters measured at six wavelengths, as well as intensity, Doppler velocity, and the line-of-sight magnetic field. More advanced products, including the full vector magnetic field, are now available. Automatically identified HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) track the location and shape of magnetic regions throughout their lifetime. The vector field is computed using the Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector (VFISV) code optimized for the HMI pipeline; the remaining 180^° azimuth ambiguity is resolved with the Minimum Energy (ME0) code. The Milne–Eddington inversion is performed on all full-disk HMI observations. The disambiguation, until recently run only on HARP regions, is now implemented for the full disk. Vector and scalar quantities in the patches are used to derive active region indices potentially useful for forecasting; the data maps and indices are collected in the SHARP data series, hmi.sharp_720s. Definitive SHARP processing is completed only after the region rotates off the visible disk; quick-look products are produced in near real time. Patches are provided in both CCD and heliographic coordinates. HMI provides continuous coverage of the vector field, but has modest spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Coupled with limitations of the analysis and interpretation techniques, effects of the orbital velocity, and instrument performance, the resulting measurements have a certain dynamic range and sensitivity and are subject to systematic errors and uncertainties that are characterized in this report.  相似文献   

Refined conceptualization of TOPMODEL for shallow subsurface flows     

M. Todd Walter  Tammo S. Steenhuis  Vishal K. Mehta  Dominique Thongs  Mark Zion  Elliot Schneiderman 《水文研究》2002,16(10):2041-2046

The TOPMODEL framework was used to derive expressions that account for saturated and unsaturated flow through shallow soil on a hillslope. The resulting equations were the basis for a shallow‐soil TOPMODEL (STOPMODEL). The common TOPMODEL theory implicitly assumes a water table below the entire watershed and this does not conceptually apply to systems hydrologically controlled by shallow interflow of perched groundwater. STOPMODEL provides an approach for extending TOPMODEL's conceptualization to apply to shallow, interflow‐driven watersheds by using soil moisture deficit instead of water table depth as the state variable. Deriving STOPMODEL by using a hydraulic conductivity function that changes exponentially with soil moisture content results in equations that look very similar to those commonly associated with TOPMODEL. This alternative way of conceptualizing TOPMODEL makes the modelling approach available to researchers, planners, and engineers who work in areas where TOPMODEL was previously believed to be unsuited, such as the New York City Watershed in the Catskills region of New York State. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Unique determination of model coronal magnetic fields using photospheric observations     

Xuepu Zhao  J. Todd Hoeksema 《Solar physics》1993,143(1):41-48

We show that the non-radial field-boundary condition (or the line-of-sight boundary condition) for the Laplacian-like equation developed by Bogdan and Low (1986) is sufficient to uniquely determine the model coronal magnetic field provided the electric currents are horizontal (or zero, the current-free case) at the solar surface as well as in the solar atmosphere between the photosphere and the source surface. The derived recursion formulae for the spherical harmonic coefficients can be used to determine the spherical harmonic coefficients in the solutions of the horizontal current models very efficiently.  相似文献   

Are quasar redshifts randomly distributed?     

Ray J. Weymann  Todd Boroson  Jeffrey D. Scargle 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1978,53(2):265-278

A statistical analysis of possible clumping (not periodicity) of emission line redshifts of QSO's shows the available data to be compatible with random fluctuations of a smooth, nonclumped distribution. This result is demonstrated with Monte Carlo simulations as well as with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is in complete disagreement with the analysis by Varshni, which is shown to be incorrect.  相似文献   

Influence of the Andes Mountains on South American moisture transport, convection, and precipitation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nadja Insel  Christopher J. Poulsen  Todd A. Ehlers 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(7-8):1477-1492

Mountain ranges are known to have a first-order control on mid-latitude climate, but previous studies have shown that the Andes have little effect on the large-scale circulation over South America. We use a limited-domain general circulation model (RegCM3) to evaluate the effect of the Andes on regional-scale atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. We present experiments in which Andean heights are specified at 250 m, and 25, 50, 75, and 100% of their modern values. Our experiments indicate that the Andes have a significant influence on moisture transport between the Amazon Basin and the central Andes, deep convective processes, and precipitation over much of South America through mechanical forcing of the South American low-level jet (LLJ) and topographic blocking of westerly flow from the Pacific Ocean. When the Andes are absent, the LLJ is absent and moisture transport over the central Andes is mainly northeastward. As a result, deep convection is suppressed and precipitation is low along the Andes. Above 50% of the modern elevation, a southward flowing LLJ develops along the eastern Andean flanks and transports moisture from the tropics to the subtropics. Moisture drawn from the Amazon Basin provides the latent energy required to drive convection and precipitation along the Andean front. Large northerly moisture flux and reduced low-level convergence over the Amazon Basin leads to a reduction in precipitation over much of the basin. Our model results are largely consistent with proxy evidence of Andean climate change, and have implications for the timing and rate of Andean surface uplift.  相似文献   

The WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey: small-scale clustering of Lyman-break galaxies at z < 1     

Chris Blake  Russell J. Jurek  Sarah Brough  Matthew Colless  Warrick Couch  Scott Croom  Tamara Davis  Michael J. Drinkwater  Duncan Forbes  Karl Glazebrook  Barry Madore  Chris Martin  Kevin Pimbblet  Gregory B. Poole  Michael Pracy  Rob Sharp  Todd Small  David Woods 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):240-254

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Thermal structure and CO distribution for the Venus mesosphere/lower thermosphere: 2001–2009 inferior conjunction sub-millimeter CO absorption line observations     

R. Todd Clancy  Brad J. Sandor  Gerald Moriarty-Schieven 《Icarus》2012,217(2):779-793

Sub-millimeter ¹²CO (346 GHz) and ¹³CO (330 GHz) line absorptions, formed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere of Venus (70–120 km), have been mapped across the nightside Venus disk during 2001–2009 inferior conjunctions, employing the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT). Radiative transfer analysis of these thermal line absorptions supports temperature and CO mixing profile retrievals, as well as Doppler wind fields (described in the companion paper, Clancy et al., 2012). Temporal sampling over the hourly, daily, weekly and interannual timescales was obtained over 2001–2009. On timescales inferred as several weeks, we observe changes between very distinctive CO and temperature nightside distributions. Retrieved nightside CO, temperature distributions for January 2006 and August 2007 observations display strong local time, latitudinal gradients consistent with early morning (2–3 am), low-to-mid latitude (0–40NS) peaks of 100–200% in CO and 20–30 K in temperature. The temperature increases are most pronounced above 100 km altitudes, whereas CO variations extend from 105 km (top altitude of retrieval) down to below 80 km in the mesosphere. In contrast, the 2004 and 2009 periods of observation display modest temperature (5–10 K) and CO (30–60%) increases, that are centered on antisolar (midnight) local times and equatorial latitudes. Doppler wind derived global (zonal and should be SSAS) circulations from the same data do not exhibit variations correlated with these CO, temperature short-term variations. However, large-scale residual wind fields not fit by the zonal, SSAS circulations are observed in concert with the strong temperature, CO gradients observed in 2006 and 2007 (Clancy et al., 2010). These short term variations in nightside CO, temperature distributions may also be related to observed nightside variations in O₂ airglow (Hueso, H., Sánchez-Lavega, A., Piccioni, G., Drossart, P., Gérard, J.C., Khatuntsev, I., Zasova, L., Migliorini, A. [2008]. J. Geophys. Res. 113, E00B02. doi:10.1029/2008JE003081) and upper mesospheric SO and SO₂ layers (Sandor, B.J., Clancy, R.T., Moriarty-Schieven, G.H., Mills, F.P. [2010]. Icarus 208, 49–60).The retrieved temperature profiles also exhibit 20 K long-term (2001–2009) variations in nightside (whole disk) average mesospheric (80–95 km) temperatures, similar to 1982–1991 variations identified in previous millimeter CO line observations (Clancy et al., 1991). Global average diurnal variations in lower thermospheric temperatures and mesospheric CO abundances decreased by a factor-of-two between 2000–2002 versus 2007–2009 periods of combined dayside and nightside observations. The infrequency and still limited temporal extent of the observations make it difficult to assign specific timescales to such longer term variations, which may be associated with longer term variations observed for cloud top SO₂ (Esposito, L.W., Bertaux, J.-L., Krasnopolsky, V., Moroz, V.I., Zasova, L.V. [1997]. Chemistry of lower atmosphere and clouds. In: Bougher, S.W., Hunten, D.M., Phillips, R.J. (Eds.), VENUS II, 1362pp) and mesospheric water vapor (Sandor, B.J., Clancy, R.T. [2005]. Icarus 177, 129–143) abundances.  相似文献   

Long-term observations of the group structure of surface waves in ice     

Gemmrich  Johannes  Mudge  Todd  Thomson  Jim 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(3):343-356

Ocean Dynamics - Several years of surface wave observations in the Chukchi Sea reveal wave groups are a common feature in open water and ice-covered conditions. The strength of the groupiness, here...  相似文献   

The local Hubble flow: is it a manifestation of dark energy?     

Yehuda Hoffman  Luis A. Martinez-Vaquero  Gustavo Yepes  Stefan Gottlöber 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(1):390-396

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