Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events     

Jacqueline Flückiger  Reto Knutti  James W. C. White  Hans Renssen 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(6):633-645

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.  相似文献   

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model          下载免费PDF全文

S. Nepal  P. Krause  W.‐A. Flügel  M. Fink  C. Fischer 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1329-1344

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Correction to: Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil     

da Silva  Richarde Marques  Santos  Celso Augusto Guimarães  Silva  Jorge Flávio Casé Braga da Costa  Silva  Alexandro Medeiros  Brasil Neto  Reginaldo Moura 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1953-1954

Natural Hazards - The article “Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil”, written by da...  相似文献   

Disentangling the role of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during the Amazonian droughts in 2015     

Schumacher  Vanúcia  Justino  Flávio  Leonardo  Noele F.  Pereira  Marcos P. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1057-1067

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - El Niño events lead to worldwide changes in the inter-annual variability of precipitation, and more in particular to South America droughts. In the year...  相似文献   

The dynamism of clustering: Interweaving material and discursive processes     

Arnt Fløysand  Stig-Erik Jakobsen  Ove Bjarnar 《Geoforum》2012,43(5):948-958

The aim of this paper is to contribute to an understanding of clusters, including both the material and discursive dynamism of cluster construction, and shed light on how clusters—once established—affect the actors, institutions and processes that constitute them. It does this by viewing clusters as an actant, i.e. something that acts or to which activity is granted by others. The empirical analysis examines two clusters in the public cluster programme Norwegian Centre of Expertise (NCE): the Møre maritime cluster and the Hordaland subsea cluster. It focuses on the type of development paths they are following and how the material and discursive processes are interweaved in these paths. The clusters are related to the concept of cluster construction, which is triggered by ideas, representations, policy and industry practice. The Møre maritime cluster is characterized by bottom-up clustering processes and illustrates how the material practices of firms can trigger clustering processes such as the establishment of a cluster and the identification of a prototype of best cluster practice. On the other hand, the Hordaland subsea cluster expresses a top-down process and how the ideal world of academics and policy-making can encourage processes of clustering among co-located firms. Based on these observations of material and discursive interweaved clustering processes and how they affect both those who are practicing and those who are promoting them, we find it reasonable to argue for a stronger awareness of such feedback loops in cluster studies.  相似文献   

Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961–2003     

Qinglong You  Shichang Kang  Enric Aguilar  Nick Pepin  Wolfgang-Albert Flügel  Yuping Yan  Yanwei Xu  Yongjun Zhang  Jie Huang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(11-12):2399-2417

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Wind and freshwater influence over hydrocarbon dispersal on Patos Lagoon, Brazil     

Janeiro J  Fernandes E  Martins F  Fernandes R 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(4):650-665

The two-dimensional barotropic, hydrodynamic and transport model MOHID is applied to the Patos Lagoon system using a nested modelling approach to reproduce both the lagoon and estuary hydrodynamics. A new Lagrangian oil spill model is presented and used to simulate a hypothetical oil spill in the estuary. Hydrodynamic fields are validated and used to force the oil model. Results show that the hydrodynamics of this system is mainly controlled by the wind and freshwater discharge. The dispersion, concentration and thickness evolution of the oil in the first day after the spill is determined by the equilibrium between these two factors. The freshwater discharge is the major factor controlling the oil dispersion for discharges greater than 5000 m3 while the wind assumes control for lower discharge amounts. The results presented are a first step toward a coastal management tool for the Patos Lagoon.  相似文献   

Competition between benthic and pelagic microalgae for phosphorus and light – long-term experiments using artificial substrates     

Annika Pasternak  Helmut Hillebrand  Sabine Flöder 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2009,71(2):238-249

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Investigations of the East Greenland continental margin between 70° and 72° N by deep seismic sounding and gravity studies     

W. Weigel  E. R. Flüh  H. Miller  A. Butzke  G. A. Dehghani  V. Gebhardt  I. Harder  J. Hepper  W. Jokat  D. Kläschen  S. Kreymann  S. Schüβler  Z. Zhao 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1995,17(2):167-199

Results are presented from a deep seismic sounding experiment with the research vessel POLARSTERN in the Scoresby Sund area, East Greenland. For this continental margin study 9 seismic recording landstations were placed in Scoresby Sund and at the southeast end of Kong Oscars Fjord, and ocean bottom seismographs (OBS) were deployed at 26 positions in and out of Scoresby Sund offshore East Greenland between 70° and 72° N and on the west flank of the Kolbeinsey Ridge. The landstations were established using helicopters from RV POLARSTERN. Explosives, a 321 airgun and 81 airguns were used as seismic sources in the open sea. Gravity data were recorded in addition to the seismic measurements. A free-air gravity map is presented. The sea operations — shooting and OBS recording — were strongly influenced by varying ice conditions. Crustal structure 2-D models have been calculated from the deep seismic sounding results. Free-air gravity anomalies have been calculated from these models and compared to the observed gravity. In the inner Scoresby Sund — the Caledonian fold belt region — the crustal thickness is about 35 km, and thins seaward to 10 km. Sediments more than 10 km thick on Jameson Land are of mainly Mesozoic age. In the outer shelf region and deep sea a ‘Moho’ cannot clearly be identified by our data. There are only weak indications for the existence of a ‘Moho’ west of the Kolbeinsey Ridge. Inside and offshore Scoresby Sund there is clear evidence for a lower crust refractor characterised byp-velocities of 6.8–7.3 km s^?1 at depths between 6 and 10 km. We believe these velocities are related to magmatic processes of rifting and first drifting controlled by different scale mantle updoming during Paleocene to Eocene and Late Oligocene to Miocene times: the separation of Greenland/Norway and the separation of the Jan Mayen Ridge/Greenland, respectively. A thin igneous upper crust, interpreted to be of oceanic origin, begins about 50 km seaward of the Liverpool Land Escarpment and thickens oceanward. In the escarpment zone the crustal composition is not clear. Probably it is stretched and attenuated continental crust interspersed with basaltic intrusions. The great depth of the basement (about 5000 m) points to a high subsidence rate of about 0.25 mm yr^?1 due to sediment loading and cooling of the crust and upper mantle, mainly since Miocene time. The igneous upper crust thickens eastward under the Kolbeinsey Ridge to about 2.5 km; the thickening is likely caused by higher production of extrusives. The basementp-velocity of 5.8–6.0 km s^?1 is rather high. Such velocities are associated with young basalts and may also be caused by a higher percentage of dykes. Tertiary to recent sediments, about 5000 m thick, form most of the shelf east of Scoresby Sund, Liverpool Land and Kong Oscars Fjord. This points to a high sedimentation rate mainly since the Miocene. The deeper sediments have a rather high meanp-velocity of 4.5 km s^?1, perhaps due to pre-Cambrian to Caledonian deposits of continental origin. The upper sediments offshore Scoresby Sund are thick and have a rather low velocity. They are interpreted as eroded material transported from inside the Sund into the shelf region. Offshore Kong Oscars Fjord the upper sediments, likely Jurassic to Devonian deposits, are thin in the shelf region but thicken to more than 3000 m in the slope area. The crust and upper mantle structure in the ocean-continent transition zone is interpreted to be the result of the superposition of the activities of three rifting phases related to mantle plumes of different dimensions:

1. the ‘Greenland/Norway separation phase’ of high volcanic activity,
2. the ‘Jan Mayen Ridge/Greenland separation phase’ and
3. the ‘Kolbeinsey Ridge phase’ of ‘normal’ volcanic activity related to a more or less normal mantle temperature.

During period 2 and 3 only a few masses of extrusives were produced, but large volumes of intrusives were emplaced. So the margin between Scoresby Sund and Jan Mayen Fracture Zone is interpreted to be a stretched margin with low volcanic activity.  相似文献   

Domestic and industrial water uses of the past 60 years as a mirror of socio-economic development: A global simulation study     

Martina Flörke  Ellen Kynast  Ilona Bärlund  Stephanie Eisner  Florian Wimmer  Joseph Alcamo 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):144-156

To enhance global water use assessment, the WaterGAP3 model was improved for back-calculating domestic, manufacturing and thermoelectric water uses until 1950 for 177 countries. Model simulations were carried-out on a national scale to estimate water withdrawals and consumption as well as cooling water required for industrial processes and electricity production. Additionally, the amount of treated and untreated wastewater as generated by the domestic and manufacturing sectors was modeled. In the view of data availability, model simulations are based on key socio-economic driving forces and thermal electricity production. Technological change rates were derived from statistical records in order to consider developments in water use efficiency, which turned out to have a crucial role in water use dynamics. Simulated domestic and industrial water uses increased from ca. 300 km³ in 1950 to 1345 km³ in 2010, 12% of which were consumed and 88% of which were discharged back into freshwater bodies. The amount of domestic and manufacturing wastewater increased considerably over the last decade, but only half of it was untreated. The downscaling of the untreated wastewater volume to river basin scale indicates a matter of concern in East and Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, and Eastern and Southern Europe. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goals, securing water supply and the reduction of untreated wastewater discharges should be amongst the priority actions to be undertaken. Population growth and increased prosperity have led to increasing water demands. However, societal and political transformation processes as well as policy regulations resulting in new water-saving technologies and improvements counteract this development by slowing down and even reducing global domestic and industrial water uses.  相似文献