Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382     

V. R. Durai  S. K. Roy Bhowmik 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1527-1551

Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the forecasts up to 7 days. Verification of rainfall forecasts has been carried out against observed rainfall analysis. Performance of the model is also examined in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water content. Case study of a monsoon depression is also illustrated. Results obtained show that, in general, both the GFS T382 and T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The verification results, at the spatial scale of 50 km resolution, in a regional spatial scale and country as a whole, in terms of continuous skill score, time series and categorical statistics, have demonstrated superiority of GFS T574 against T382 over Indian region. Both the model shows bias of lower tropospheric drying and upper tropospheric moistening. A bias of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower tropospheric level lay over the central India, where rainfall as well as precipitable water content shows negative bias. Considerable differences between GFS T574 and T382 are noticed in the structure of model bias in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water contents. The magnitude of error for these parameters increases with forecast lead time in both GFS T574 and T382. The results documented are expected to be useful to the forecasters, monsoon researchers and modeling community.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of seasonal precipitation extremes to model configuration of the Canadian Regional Climate Model over eastern Canada using historical simulations     

Philippe Roy  Philippe Gachon  René Laprise 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2431-2453

This study analyzes the uncertainty of seasonal (winter and summer) precipitation extremes as simulated by a recent version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) using 16 simulations (1961–1990), considering four sources of uncertainty from: (a) the domain size, (b) the driving Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM), (c) the ensemble member for a given AOGCM and (d) the internal variability of the CRCM. These 16 simulations are driven by 2 AOGCMs (i.e. CGCM3, members 4 and 5, and ECHAM5, members 1 and 2), and one set of re-analysis products (i.e. ERA40), using two domain sizes (AMNO, covering all North America and QC, a smaller domain centred over the Province of Québec). In addition to the mean seasonal precipitation, three seasonal indices are used to characterize different types of variability and extremes of precipitation: the number of wet days, the maximum number of consecutive dry days, and the 95th percentile of daily precipitation. Results show that largest source of uncertainty in summer comes from the AOGCM selection and the choice of domain size, followed by the choice of the member for a given AOGCM. In winter, the choice of the member becomes more important than the choice of the domain size. Simulated variance sensitivity is greater in winter than in summer, highlighting the importance of the large-scale circulation from the boundary conditions. The study confirms a higher uncertainty in the simulated heavy rainfall than the one in the mean precipitation, with some regions along the Great Lakes—St-Lawrence Valley exhibiting a systematic higher uncertainty value.  相似文献   

Tectono-metamorphic and geochronologic studies from Sandmata complex,northwest Indian shield: Implications on exhumation of late-palaeoproterozoic granulites in an archaean-early palaeoproterozoic granite-gneiss terrane     

A. B. Roy  Alfred Kröner  Sanjeev Rathore  Vivek Laul  Ritesh Purohit 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2012,79(4):323-334

Several bodies of granulites comprising charnockite, charno-enderbite, pelitic and calc-silicate rocks occur within an assemblage of granite gneiss/granitoid, amphibolite and metasediments (henceforth described as banded gneisses) in the central part of the Aravalli Mountains, northwestern India. The combined rock assemblage was thought to constitute an Archaean basement (BGC-II) onto which the successive Proterozoic cover rocks were deposited. Recent field studies reveal the occurrence of several bodies of late-Palaeoproterozoic (1725 and 1621 Ma) granulites within the banded gneisses, which locally show evidence of migmatization at c. 1900 Ma coeval with the Aravalli Orogeny. We report single zircon ‘evaporation’ ages together with information from LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon datings to confirm an Archaean (2905 — ca. 2500 Ma) age for the banded gneisses hosting the granulites. The new geochronological data, therefore, suggest a polycyclic evolution for the BGC-II terrane for which the new term Sandmata Complex is proposed. The zircon ages suggest that the different rock formations in the Sandmata Complex are neither entirely Palaeoproterozoic in age, as claimed in some studies nor are they exclusively Archaean as was initially thought. Apart from distinct differences in the age of rocks, tectono-metamorphic breaks are observed in the field between the Archaean banded gneisses and the Palaeoproterozoic granulites. Collating the data on granulite ages with the known tectono-stratigraphic framework of the Aravalli Mountains, we conclude that the evolution and exhumation of granulites in the Sandmata Complex occurred during a tectono-magmatic/metamorphic event, which cannot be linked to known orogenic cycles that shaped this ancient mountain belt. We present some field and geochronologic evidence to elucidate the exhumation history and tectonic emplacement of the late Palaeoproterozoic, high P-T granulites into the Archaean banded gneisses. The granulite-facies metamorphism has been correlated with the thermal perturbation during the asymmetric opening of Delhi basins at around 1700 Ma.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and tectonic setting of Tuting metavolcanic rocks of possible ophiolitic affinity from Eastern Himalayan syntaxis     

Puspendu Saha  S. K. Acharyya  V. Balaram  Parijat Roy 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2012,80(2):167-176

Geochemistry of Tuting metavolcanic rocks is being reported for the first time. Narrow slivers of mafic volcanic rocks, as those at Tuting, also occur in close association with slivers of more complete sections of ophiolites at the Tsangpo river section upstream of Tuting and skirt round the Namche Barwa antiform. These detached slivers of the mafic volcanic rocks and the ophiolites represent the easternmost components of the Yarlung Tsangpo Ophiolite, and also define the arcuate shape of the Eastern Himalayan syntaxis. The metavolcanic rocks exposed at the apex of the Siang river dome at Tuting (Tsangpo River named Siang down stream of Tuting) is the only exposure of such rocks from the Himalayan syntaxial area in India.The Tuting metavolcanic rocks correspond to andesite and basaltic andesite as per TAS diagram. The mobility of major elements possibly has affected their classification. As per Zr/TiO₂ — Nb/Y diagram of Winchester and Floyd (1977), proposed for classification of altered igneous rocks, the Tuting samples mainly correspond to ‘sub-akaline basalt’ and one sample plot as ‘andesite/basalt’. These have a flat chrondrite-normalised REE pattern. MORB-normalized multi-elemental plot shows enrichment in large ion lithophile (LIL) and the light rare earth elements (LREE), and depletion in several high field strength elements (HFSE). Based on these trace element patterns and a few discrimination plots, the Tuting metavolcanic rocks are inferred to have generated in supra-subduction zone environment in an intraoceanic arc, back arc setting, or in a mid-ocean ridge process that resembles the Chile Ridge spreading centre.  相似文献   

Metal concentrations in sediments from tourist beaches of Huatulco,Oaxaca, Mexico: an evaluation of post-Easter week vacation     

I. Retama  M. P. Jonathan  Priyadarsi D. Roy  P. F. Rodríguez-Espinosa  R. Nagarajan  S. K. Sarkar  S. S. Morales-García  N. P. Muñoz-Sevilla 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(5):375

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A comparative study for estimation of wave height using traditional and hybrid soft-computing methods     

Chandrabhushan Roy  Shervin Motamedi  Roslan Hashim  Shahaboddin Shamshirband  Dalibor Petković 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(7):590

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Geochemical characteristics of Holocene sediments from Chuadanga district,Bangladesh: Implications for weathering,climate, redox conditions,provenance and tectonic setting     

Ismail Hossain  Krisna Kanta Roy  Pradip Kumar Biswas  Mahbubul Alam  Md. Moniruzzaman  Farah Deeba 《中国地球化学学报》2014,33(4):336-350

The present research deals with the geochemical characteristics of the Holocene sediments from Alamdanga area, Chuadanga district, Bangladesh. Main goals of the study are to delineate source rock characteristics, degree of chemical weathering and sorting processes and behavior of redox conditions during deposition of the sediments. Geochemical characteristics of the sediments show comparatively a wide variation in accordance with stratigraphy in their major element contents （e.g. SiO2 69.46-82.13, A1203 2.28-8.88 in wt%）, reflecting the distinctive provenance and in part an unstable period in terms of tectonic activity. Geochemical classification of the sediments shows mostly sub-arkose with few sub-litharenites. Some major and trace elements display comprehensible correlation with A1203 confirming their possible hydraulic fraetionation. The chemical index of alteration （CIA＊）, W＊ index, index of compositional variability （ICV）, plagioclase index of alteration （PIA＊） values and the ratio of SIO2/Al2O3, suggest low degrees of chemical weathering in the source areas as well as immature to moderately mature the sediments. The sediments suggest semi-arid climatic trends within oxic deltaic depositional conditions during the Holocene, at 3-12 ka. Whole rock geochemistry and discrimination diagrams demonstrate the continental signature derivatives, which might have been derived from the felsic to intermediate igneous rocks （granitic plutonic rocks） as well as from quartzose sedimentary/metamorphic provenance. These typical sources are present in a vast region of the Himalayan belt and catchment areas of Ganges. The tectonic setting of the sediments demarcates typically passive margin with slightly continental arc system.  相似文献   

Nonlinear propagation of dust ion-acoustic waves in dusty multi-ion dense plasma     

M. S. Zobaer  N. Roy  A. A. Mamun 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2013,343(2):675-681

We have studied the nonlinear propagation of dust ion-acoustic (DIA) waves in a dusty multi-ion dense plasma (with the constituents being degenerate, either non-relativistic or ultra-relativistic) and the propagation of such waves have been investigated by the reductive perturbation method. From the stationary solution of the Korteweg de-Vries (K-dV) equation and Burgers’ equation the nonlinear waves (specially, solitary and shock waves) have been found to be formed in the dusty plasma system under consideration. It has shown that the basic features of these waves are significantly modified by both the positive and negative ions and dust number densities, the degenerate of the constituents. The implications of our results have been briefly discussed.  相似文献   

Microstructures of mylonites along the Karakoram Shear Zone,Tangste Valley,Pangong Mountains,Karakoram     

Priyom Roy  A. K. Jain  Sandeep Singh 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2010,75(5):679-694

The Karakoram Shear Zone is a northwest-southeast trending dextral ductile shear zone, which has affected the granitic and granodioritic bodies of the southern Asian Plate margin in three distinct episodes. The ductile shearing of the granitic bodies at Tangste and Darbuk has resulted in the development of mylonites with mylonitic foliation and stretching lineation. More intense deformation is noted in the Tangste granite grading up to orthomylonite, as compared to the Darbuk granite. Kinematic indicators include S-C foliation, synthetic C′ and C″ antithetic shear bands, Type A s-mantled porphyroclasts, oblique quartz foliation, micro-shears with bookshelf gliding, mineral fishes including Group 2 mica fishes, and Type 1 and 2a pull-apart microstructures, and exhibit strong dextral sense of ductile shearing towards southeast. The textural features of the minerals, especially that of quartz and feldspar, indicate temperature of mylonitisation ranging between 300 and 500°C in the upper greenschist facies, and appear to have been evolved during exhumation as a consequence of oblique strike-slip movements along the Karakoram shear zone.  相似文献   

Overview of overpressure in Bengal Basin,India     

D. K. Roy  G. K. Ray  A. K. Biswas 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2010,75(4):644-660

Abnormally high formation pressures are encountered worldwide, ranging in geological age from Cenozoic to Paleozoic, within a depth range of few hundred meters to as deep as six thousand meters while carrying out exploratory drilling by E and P companies. Several causes can increase formation fluid pressure i.e. rapid loading of sediments results compaction disequilibrium, thermal expansion of fluids, compression and/or upliftment of strata by tectonic forces, generation of oil and gas from organic matter and its volume expansion due to high thermal stress within the restricted pore volume in subsurface condition. Few global examples on overpressure occurrences have been compiled in the paper with special reference to Bengal Basin. Emphasis has been given on methodology and interpretation on abnormal pressure detection in Bengal Basin with a compiled data package on generated curves (Geologs), charts, tables in a systematic way to understand the depth/stratigraphic horizons proved/interpreted as proved or likely to be within transition and overpressure regime. The integrated analysis indicates that the wells drilled in the east of Eocene hinge zone in the onshore and offshore parts of Bengal Basin have penetrated overpressure formation within Miocene in the depth range of 2800 m to 5340 m and the mud weight used to control this overpressure zone was more than 2.0 sp gr mud. The generated Geologs can be used as reference to understand the regime of transition and overpressure, as a valuable document for exploration drilling planning and monitoring. The generated model curve (modified using available data after Hottman and Johnson, 1956 curve) using sonic departure (i.e. Δt_ob(sh) −Δt_n(sh)) from drilled wells may be used as an additional tool to find out the expected formation pressure gradient and equivalent mud weight in all future wells. The correlation of wells based on the trend of dcs and σ logs will be useful for predicting transition and overpressure top provided all the parameters required for calculating dcs and σ log recorded smoothly during drilling phase. The study has brought out the detail procedure to generate the pressure profile in the future wells. The generation of pressure profile of a well prior to drilling has got immense importance in oil industry. The drilling of the well should be done by maintaining the optimum mud weight generated from the pressure profile. In case, during drilling, formation pressure is more than the mud pressure, resulted gas kicks or worse, blowouts of the well. Excessively high mud pressure can fracture the formation and cause lost circulation. The oil and gas companies, worldwide, attributed 15% losses due to various problems associated with drilling complications, mostly related to improper pressure prediction of a well. The losses include loss of material as well as drilling process continuity, called non-productive time (NPT). The generation of accurate pressure profile reduces drilling problems, cuts exploration and development costs and allows billions of dollars now spent on losses to be better spent-building and replacing reserves.  相似文献