Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework          下载免费PDF全文

Ype van der Velde  Nikki Vercauteren  Fernando Jaramillo  Stefan C. Dekker  Georgia Destouni  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4110-4118

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Framing the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption from a farming-disaster perspective     

Sólveig Thorvaldsdóttir  Ragnar Sigbjörnsson 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):1619-1653

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Mauer – the type site of Homo heidelbergensis: palaeoenvironment and age     

Günther A. Wagner  Lutz Christian Maul  Manfred Löscher  H. Dieter Schreiber 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(11-12):1464-1473

The mandible of Homo heidelbergensis was found 1907 in the sand pit Grafenrain at Mauer in coarse fluvial sands 24 m below the surface, deposited in a former course of the Neckar River. These ‘Mauer sands’ are overlain by a series of glacial-climate loess deposits with intercalated interglacial palaeosols, which can be correlated with Quaternary climate history, thus indicating an early Middle Pleistocene age for H. heidelbergensis. The ‘Mauer sands’ are famous for their rather rich mammal fauna, which clearly indicates interglacial climate conditions. The faunal evidence – in particular the micromammals – place the ‘Mauer sands’ into MIS 15 or MIS 13 although most stratigraphic arguments favour correlation to MIS 15 and therefore to an age of ca 600 ka.  相似文献   

The Late Cretaceous Klepa basalts in Macedonia (FYROM)—Constraints on the final stage of Tethys closure in the Balkans          下载免费PDF全文

Dejan Prelević  Simon Wehrheim  Magnus Reutter  Rolf L. Romer  Blažo Boev  Milica Božović  Paul van den Bogaard  Vladica Cvetković  Stefan M. Schmid 《地学学报》2017,29(3):145-153

The waning stage(s) of the Tethyan ocean(s) in the Balkans are not well understood. Controversy centres on the origin and life‐span of the Cretaceous Sava Zone, which is allegedly a remnant of the last oceanic domain in the Balkan Peninsula, defining the youngest suture between Eurasia‐ and Adria‐derived plates. In order to investigate to what extent Late‐Cretaceous volcanism within the Sava Zone is consistent with this model we present new age data together with trace‐element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data for the Klepa basaltic lavas from the central Balkan Peninsula. Our new geochemical data show marked differences between the Cretaceous Klepa basalts (Sava Zone) and the rocks of other volcanic sequences from the Jurassic ophiolites of the Balkans. The Klepa basalts mostly have Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic and trace‐element signatures that resemble enriched within‐plate basalts substantially different from Jurassic ophiolite basalts with MORB, BAB and IAV affinities. Trace‐element modelling of the Klepa rocks indicates 2%–20% polybaric melting of a relatively homogeneously metasomatised mantle source that ranges in composition from garnet lherzolite to ilmenite+apatite bearing spinel–amphibole lherzolite. Thus, the residual mineralogy is characteristic of a continental rather than oceanic lithospheric mantle source, suggesting an intracontinental within‐plate origin for the Klepa basalts. Two alternative geodynamic models are internally consistent with our new findings: (1) if the Sava Zone represents remnants of the youngest Neotethyan Ocean, magmatism along this zone would be situated within the forearc region and triggered by ridge subduction; (2) if the Sava Zone delimits a diffuse tectonic boundary between Adria and Europe which had already collided in the Late Jurassic, the Klepa basalts together with a number of other magmatic centres represent volcanism related to transtensional tectonics.  相似文献   

Jurassic to Palaeogene tectono‐magmatic evolution of northern Chile and adjacent Bolivia from detrital zircon U‐Pb geochronology and heavy mineral provenance     

Jörn F. Wotzlaw  Audrey Decou  Hilmar von Eynatten  Gerhard Wörner  Dirk Frei 《地学学报》2011,23(6):399-406

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Holocene survival of the wild horse in Europe: a matter of open landscape?     

Robert S. Sommer  Norbert Benecke  Lembi Lõugas  Oliver Nelle  Ulrich Schmölcke 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(8):805-812

The wild horse Equus ferus was one of the most frequent species of the Late Pleistocene large ungulate fauna in Eurasia and played an important role in the subsistence of human groups, especially at the end the Late Glacial. It is frequently assumed that E. ferus became extinct in Europe at the beginning of the Holocene because of the development of woodlands and loss of open habitats. Because of its preference for open habitats and in spite of its adaptability, the appearance or disappearance of the wild horse could therefore be a suitable palaeoecological indicator for the opening of the Holocene primeval woodlands. We revised the dating and reliability of the subfossil record and dated several bones by atomic mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating. From the beginning of the Holocene (9600 cal a BC) to the end of the Atlantic Period (3750 cal a BC) there are 207 archaeological sites with wild horse records available in Europe. E. ferus survived the Pleistocene Holocene transition in Europe, but the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations fluctuated remarkably in the early and middle Holocene. Small and sparse populations increasingly became extinct during the early Holocene, until between 7100 and 5500 cal a BC the wild horse was almost absent in central parts of the European Lowlands. Particular conditions in natural open patches in the canopy forests, chalklands and floodplains may have maintained the local survival of the horse in some regions of the Lowlands, however. In the Late Atlantic, between 5500 and 3750 cal a BC the range of the wild horse was again extended. It re‐immigrated into central and western Europe, probably as a consequence of increasing landscape opening by Neolithic peoples. The data presented here may be a valuable part of the debate on the degree of openness of the early and middle Holocene landscape. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effect of bed surface roughness on longitudinal dispersion in artificial open channels     

Marcus Schulz  Jan Priegnitz  Jörg Klasmeier  Stefan Heller  Stefan Meinecke  Michael Feibicke 《水文研究》2012,26(2):272-280

In several empirical and modelling studies on river hydraulics, dispersion was negatively correlated to surface roughness. In this study, it was aimed to investigate the influence of surface roughness on longitudinal dispersion under controlled conditions. In artificial flow channels with a length of 104 m, tracer experiments with variations in channel bed material were performed. By use of measured tracer breakthrough curves, average flow velocity, mean longitudinal dispersion, and mean longitudinal dispersivity were calculated. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients ranged from 0·018 m² s^?1 in channels with smooth bed surface up to 0·209 m² s^?1 in channels with coarse gravel as bed material. Longitudinal dispersion was linearly related to mean flow velocity. Accordingly, longitudinal dispersivities ranged between 0·152 ± 0·017 m in channels with smooth bed surface and 0·584 ± 0·015 m in identical channels with a coarse gravel substrate. Grain size and surface roughness of the channel bed were found to correlate positively to longitudinal dispersion. This finding contradicts several existing relations between surface roughness and dispersion. Future studies should include further variation in surface roughness to derive a better‐founded empirical equation forecasting longitudinal dispersion from surface roughness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: Scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments     

Nicola Ranger  Falk Niehörster 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(3):703-712

Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate–catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation.  相似文献   

Structural geometry and controls on basement‐involved deformation in the northern Flinders Ranges,Adelaide Fold Belt,South Australia     

E. Paul  T. Flöttmann  M. Sandiford 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(3):343-354

In the northern Flinders Ranges, Neoproterozoic and Cambrian sedimentary rocks were deformed and variably metamorphosed during the ca 500 Ma Cambro‐Ordovician Delamerian Orogeny. Balanced and restored structural sections across the northern Flinders Ranges show shortening of about 10–20%. Despite the presence of suitable evaporitic detachment horizons at the basement‐cover interface, the structural style is best interpreted to be thick‐skinned involving basement with only a minor proportion of the overall shortening accommodated along stratigraphically controlled detachments. Much of the contractional deformation was localised by the inversion of former extensional faults such as the Norwest and Paralana Faults, which both controlled the deposition of Neoproterozoic cover successions. As such, both faults represent major, long‐lived structures which effectively define the present boundaries of the northern Flinders Ranges with the Gawler Craton to the west and the Curnamona Craton to the east. The most intense deformation, which resulted in exhumation of the basement along the Paralana Fault to form the Mt Painter and Babbage Inliers, coincides with extremely high heat flows related to extraordinarily high heat‐production rates in the basement rocks. High heat flow in the northern Flinders Ranges suggests that the structural style not only reflects the pre‐Delamerian basin architecture but is also a consequence of the reactivation of thermally perturbed, weakened basement.  相似文献   

Coastal sea level changes,observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century     

M. Carson  A. Köhl  D. Stammer  A. B. A. Slangen  C. A. Katsman  R. S. W. van de Wal  J. Church  N. White 《Climatic change》2016,134(1-2):269-281

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